Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

I think there are two distinct camps in this thread? Those that have some hope and are willing to make speculative bookings for the end of 2021 and early 2022. And those who aren’t willing to entertain any sort of travel before 2022/23 (or even later).

If you are in the first camp, and choose your providers wisely, there are some bargains to be had, and good award availability. If choosing wisely, not too much to be ‘lost’. (‘Wisely’ = doing a bit of digging into a company’s financial status, government support it might receive, availability of refunds, etc.)

The downside of waiting is that the bargains and award seats might be gone by the time people wish to book.

Not to mention that booking something now gives something to do, and something to look forward to! I’m able to put together a business round-world itinerary via QFFF at the moment on the dates I want. to the places I want. with wide open availability. The penalty if it all goes pear-shaped? 6000 points (currently waived!)

 

[drron]

I agree, and I’ve been saying for a while that the USA will turn the corner very quickly due to the huge infection numbers (I have several friends in the states who have had antibody blood tests that show former COVID infections - however they’ve never been sick). I read a few articles in tabloid media today remarking “shock” and “confusion” at India’s daily infection rates dropping to 10% of their peak. Seems to be a common theme in these countries that have suffered large outbreaks.

The WHO has said they estimate actual infection rates to be 10 times higher than those published, so we’re currently looking at 20% of the worlds population exposed (and seemingly fairly immune... for the time being).

They certainly are turning the corner in hospitalisations at least.

 

[jb747]

Pessimist.

In 2025 travel bloggers will be saying to themselves 'remember COVID a couple of years ago, like when we couldn't travel?'.

I would be extremely happy to be completely wrong.

 

[DC3]

They certainly are turning the corner in hospitalisations at least.

I hope not dying before getting to hospital admission?

 

[drron]

I hope not dying before getting to hospital admission?

Definitely not.New cases are dropping.
.

And the mortality rate has declined but now appears to be flattening out.

 

[Seat0B]

Domestic air, Q3 2022.

International. 2025.

Stop it please @jb747! it's getting later and later every time you post. Not saying you're wrong. In fact I think you're probably right. Just feeling miserable at these dates.

 

[dajop]

We can, and do speculate as much as we like. One thing I do expect is that come later this year, maybe August, September the health experts will be reviewing the data from overseas experiencese, consider a target vaccination rate in Australia and provide appropriate guidance on border controls. So basically will all depend on the data post-vaccine in the worst hit countries.

In the meantime, sit back, relax and enjoy the ride!

Sympathies to those who can't visit or be visited by loved ones, but if not, I know several habitual overseas travellers who've been taking the time , appreciate what they have. 36,000km of coast line, 7.7m sq km of land, 10,000 beaches, 5 distinct cities > 1m people, 130m Ha of forest, >2000 wineries. And 24 Qantas Clubs . Many of my colleagues (including several Australians) have not left Singapore for a year now. 193km of coast line, 728 sq km of land, 7 beaches, 1 city , 200 sq km of forest 20,000 Ha of forest, no wineries, and no open Qantas Clubs. Enjoy what you have!

 

[Toula92122]

New cases are dropping significantly in most places. In Hawaii it was done to 38 today with less than 1% rate and they are talking about opening up and allowing test free travel and no quarantine for those who have been vaccinated. I have to admit I am getting very annoyed with the Australian position. I feel like we are treated like a bunch of mushrooms. If anyone is going to be too scared to travel until there are zero cases worldwide maybe it's time you lock yourself in your basement and not venture outside in case you get struck by lightning or get involved in a car accident or anything else bade may happen.

I say stop job keeper, job seeker and any assistance to business, burn it all down. Then once the true state of the Australian economy is revealed ScoMo and his buds might take a different attitude as might the State Premiers.

Those who want to go should be able to make an adult decision for themselves. However, if you choose to go no asking the Oz Govt for assistance if it all goes turtle up.

 

[DC3]

... Those who want to go should be able to make an adult decision for themselves. However, if you choose to go no asking the Oz Govt for assistance if it all goes turtle up.

I tend to agree. I’m more than happy to travel overseas (flights permitting) from about mid-year, once vaccinated, and flights restricted to those who have also had the vax.

However, Oz citizens can’t be trusted with overseas travel it seems, until who knows when.

 

[drron]

I think there are two distinct camps in this thread? Those that have some hope and are willing to make speculative bookings for the end of 2021 and early 2022. And those who aren’t willing to entertain any sort of travel before 2022/23 (or even later).

If you are in the first camp, and choose your providers wisely, there are some bargains to be had, and good award availability. If choosing wisely, not too much to be ‘lost’. (‘Wisely’ = doing a bit of digging into a company’s financial status, government support it might receive, availability of refunds, etc.)

The downside of waiting is that the bargains and award seats might be gone by the time people wish to book.

Not to mention that booking something now gives something to do, and something to look forward to! I’m able to put together a business round-world itinerary via QFFF at the moment on the dates I want. to the places I want. with wide open availability. The penalty if it all goes pear-shaped? 6000 points (currently waived!)

I differ a little on the make up of the 2 camps.
I am in the fiest group so as soon as overseas travel is allowed with at most home quarantine we will be off as there will be some bargains.
That is because I believe many more will be in the second group who will not want to travel until they are reassured everything is absolutely safe.It is here I think jb747 is on the money.

By bargains in travel I don't necessarily believe it will be in price.more for me that some of the popular destinations will be free from the precovid hordes meaning travel may well be a much more pleasant experience.

 

[Seat0B]

This article from the Guardian yesterday (not paywalled) suggests that the Australian National Audit Office is conducting a review of the outbound travel ban and arrivals cap. Some key parts of the article include:

"The ANAO audit will target six federal departments with oversight of the border: agriculture, foreign affairs and trade (Dfat), health, home affairs, infrastructure and transport, and the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet.

The range of subjects points to a broad audit that could encompass the adequacy of assistance to Australians stranded abroad provided by Dfat, and the overlapping responsibility for biosecurity and human health between the health, home affairs and agriculture departments, explored already in NSW’s Ruby Princess inquiry."

I got all excited until I read this (my bolding):

"Submissions are open until 27 June with a final report expected to be completed in November. The ANAO has warned that it “does not have a role in commenting on the merits of government policy but focuses on assessing the efficient and effective implementation of government programs”.

Anyway, perhaps those affected could make submissions individually, or maybe @AFF Editor might like to make a submission from us all.

 

[Tiki]

I think there are two distinct camps in this thread? Those that have some hope and are willing to make speculative bookings for the end of 2021 and early 2022. And those who aren’t willing to entertain any sort of travel before 2022/23 (or even later).

If you are in the first camp, and choose your providers wisely, there are some bargains to be had, and good award availability. If choosing wisely, not too much to be ‘lost’. (‘Wisely’ = doing a bit of digging into a company’s financial status, government support it might receive, availability of refunds, etc.)

The downside of waiting is that the bargains and award seats might be gone by the time people wish to book.

Not to mention that booking something now gives something to do, and something to look forward to! I’m able to put together a business round-world itinerary via QFFF at the moment on the dates I want. to the places I want. with wide open availability. The penalty if it all goes pear-shaped? 6000 points (currently waived!)

Third camp - those who are ready to travel on a last minute basis, just waiting to be assured we won't be stranded overseas. Any of my planned (on spreadsheets) trips could be easily thrown together on a weeks notice provided the destinations are also open and normal movement allowed. But I can't afford to tie up cash when things are uncertain.

The only reason I am not more vocal in complaining is because the places I want to go are not open. But I will be very upset if most major countries (example G20 economies, good health infrustructure, etc) open normally for vaccinated people and Australia is lagging behind.

 

[RAM]

A while ago there was an article in the Guardian that specified numbers for December. I recall it was something like 17,800 incoming passengers and 12,000 outgoing. So that pretty much gives a clear indication of why the backlog is not clearing. How many of those 12k outgoing then turned around and came back? As you say circumstances for those overseas would be changing and their desire to return to Oz would be adding to the list. Have to remember also many people who do return would never appear on any DFAT lists.

The latest figures bandied about have between 40,000 & 44,000 Australian citizens (as opposed to foreign nationals with Australian permanent residency or an Australian visa) are registered with DFAT.

NZ has put the cart before the horse and will only allow someone to arrive in NZ if they have already provided evidence to the NZ Govt to satisfy the requirements to book a place in a Quarantine Hotel.

The NZ Govt has not adopted the Australian/Orwellian approach of "All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others" - where if you arrive on a flight you automatically get into a Quarantine hotel no questions asked. So a foreign national who buys a 1st class ticket gets in ahead of an Australian citizen with an economy ticket that keeps getting cancelled & re-issued.

An article (referred in post one or two above this) had this useful summary:

"Australian Border Force data, reported by the Australian, shows that more than 253,000 citizens, residents and visa holders have travelled to Australia since the hotel quarantine system was introduced in late March, as well as 73,000 citizens of other countries."

At first blush it reads as if 253,000 Australians have arrived in Australia since late March 2020 and only 73,000 'citizens' of other countries. Somewhat misleading as it should be read as 253,000 Australian citizens, Australian permanent residents and foreign nationals with visas in addition to 73,000 foreign nationals without visas.

To see the arrivals/departures figures then use this:

International airline activity

Summary Time series

www.bitre.gov.au

To see who is making up the actual arrivals/departures (foreign nationals vs Australia citizens vs visa holders (eg: backpackers, international students, dog groomers etc):

Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, February 2024

Statistics on international travel arriving in and departing from Australia.

www.abs.gov.au

Which for December 2020 listed 8,820 short term visitor (=foreigh national) arrivals for the month with 14,300 resident arrivals. If you scroll down the page there is the inference that close to 2,000 other foreign nationals arrived under the 'visitor' designation for expected periods longer than 1 year, surprisingly this figure does not include visa holders.

In addition there were 230 international students who arrived in December.

The 'resident' arrivals encompassses Australian citizens, permanent residents (foreign nationals) and visa holders (foreign nationals) - making it almost impossible to pull out an 'Australian citizens' arrival number (at least I haven't found how to yet!).

To muddy the waters even further, just as China tranships frozen vegetables to be packaged in NZ and sold in Australia as 'Product of NZ', a work around has been reportedly operating whereby foreign nationals travel to NZ for the quarantine period (when Hotel Quarantine space opens to them) & then fly to Australia using the NZ bubble agreement (now paused).

I recently (literally) ran across one US family who have done exactly this. Or more accuately ran into the wife who walked out of the gate as I was running past, the house had been for lease & a couple of weeks earlier had the 'leased' sticker put on the sign. I apologised for the slow-motion collision (age induced ) to which she replied 'Dang, no harm done' in a strong US accent. Running the last surviving original (1980s) Neighbourhood Watch - I welcomed her to the neighbourhood & mentioned NW etc. She replied that in Austin they had an active NW in their area & was pleased to find it going in Australia, she went on to mention they had recently arrived from the US. I responded they were lucky to get a seat into Sydney, "Not that hard, no we came via NZ, much easier".

Small world.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I differ a little on the make up of the 2 camps.
I am in the fiest group so as soon as overseas travel is allowed with at most home quarantine we will be off as there will be some bargains.
That is because I believe many more will be in the second group who will not want to travel until they are reassured everything is absolutely safe.It is here I think jb747 is on the money.

For sure. On the personal level there will be many variations on when people feel ready, willing or comfortable to travel. That's separate however from the legal and policy position on when borders will open. The borders can be open and people still not want to travel, but that's their choice.

 

[mviy]

I intend to travel once I’m vaccinated and confident of getting home around when I plan to when I book. Depending on pricing (hopefully similar to pre-COVID) I’d probably consider business fares to increase the chances of getting home when I plan to.

If I have to go through hotel quarantine I’m prepared to do that, but I don’t want to find I can’t get home for months after I had booked to come back.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Information can be gleaned on the structure of UK Red List quarantine system.

Four people fined $17,900 each after failing to declare they had travelled from ‘Red List’ country

Four passengers have been fined more than $A17,900 each for failing to declare they had travelled from a “Red List” country into the UK.

www.news.com.au

 

[Matt_01]

I have taken the punt and made some bookings to NZ in Sep 21, if they do not go ahead it will be of no great loss as there is no penalty to cancel. I would like to think we (the family) will be able to travel further-afield by the middle to end of the first quarter 2022. Throughout the course of this year I will most likely book several OW redemptions for travel in 2022 and then firm up our plans in Jan 22 and cancel anything that may not go ahead before the QFF waiver period cut off. If the waiver period is not extended it will only cost 6000 points per itinerary to cancel at a later time.

 

[Jmrocky]

I think there are two distinct camps in this thread? Those that have some hope and are willing to make speculative bookings for the end of 2021 and early 2022. And those who aren’t willing to entertain any sort of travel before 2022/23 (or even later).

If you are in the first camp, and choose your providers wisely, there are some bargains to be had, and good award availability. If choosing wisely, not too much to be ‘lost’. (‘Wisely’ = doing a bit of digging into a company’s financial status, government support it might receive, availability of refunds, etc.)

The downside of waiting is that the bargains and award seats might be gone by the time people wish to book.

Not to mention that booking something now gives something to do, and something to look forward to! I’m able to put together a business round-world itinerary via QFFF at the moment on the dates I want. to the places I want. with wide open availability. The penalty if it all goes pear-shaped? 6000 points (currently waived!)

I agree with Tiki, I think there is a 3rd group, a significant camp who want to travel, but don't want a snap decision whilst in the air turning into 14 days quarantine on arrival, being stranded somewhere indefinitely or some other logistical nightmare.

Also there are many (like myself) who were within days/weeks of leaving prior to March '20 only to have plans shelved with money lost and holiday dreams shattered. I remember even having a week long camping trip shelved as it was further than 50k. I came out relatively unscathed ($300 expired voucher out of $25k refunded), many didn't. I think they'll be quicker than those wanting "risk free" travel, but right now I feel too burnt out to think about planning something as there's too much of a chance it will go the same way other plans did last year.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Rest of the world - Travelling by Q4/Christmas 2021
Australia - Travelling by June 2022

mate does alot of stats within the NHS and reckons numbers are way way way down in the risk age groups

i'm skeptical about the india dip but there will be a high level of asymptomatic natural immunity in the world outside of NZ/AU which makes us entirely dependant on that which we are not prioritising

 

[Flashback]

Rest of the world - Travelling by Q4/Christmas 2021
Australia - Travelling by June 2022

mate does alot of stats within the NHS and reckons numbers are way way way down in the risk age groups

i'm skeptical about the india dip but there will be a high level of asymptomatic natural immunity in the world outside of NZ/AU which makes us entirely dependant on that which we are not prioritising

They're not way way down, they are down, sure; but there's still a long way to go. To give an idea, it looks like pubs, restaurants etc. are not likely to be allowed to open (based on the current trajectory) until at least May. It's a very long lockdown here in the UK and still a long way to go.....