Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

I expect the SA cases will go up soon when the next repatriation flight arrives. This flight originated in Pakistan.

I just hope the media deals with it sensibly because of course the numbers will rise. I think another flight is coming from South America. It's why the days of no positive results are meaningless if returning travellers are counted. Only community transmissions are of any relevance.

 

[drron]

The numbers in South America are skyrocketing.I have just been reading a list of the number of daily new cases per million population.Chile, Peru, Panama and Brazil are scary numbers.Also the Middle east.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems

ourworldindata.org

 

[dajop]

For the first time ever I think I'd suggest to anyone going to the UK to fly Perth - UK direct assuming that service is ever available again and then immediately self isolate for 14 days.

At the moment, if someone needs to travel to UK that is not an option. But certainly SQ flights via SIN would be. Transit passengers can only originate in a handful of countries (Australia, HKG, NZ, Japan and 3 cities in China) and are segregated in SIN.

 

[jakeseven7]

I just hope the media deals with it sensibly because of course the numbers will rise. I think another flight is coming from South America. It's why the days of no positive results are meaningless if returning travellers are counted. Only community transmissions are of any relevance.

Yes they are and quarantine isn’t going to be infallible forever so it is inevitable there will be spread outside it soon enough

 

[drron]

Thailand comes up with a new travel bubble plan and Australia isn't included.

Seven groups of foreigners expected to be allowed entry

The government plans to allow seven groups of foreigners to enter the country, Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin, the spokesman of the government’s Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, announced today (June 22). The committee has divided these into two main groups.

www.nationthailand.com

 

[kelvedon]

just heard on the grapevine that in a teleconference to staff this morning AJ said, except for NZ, he does not expect any QF international flights before July 2021

 

[kpc]

just heard on the grapevine that in a teleconference to staff this morning AJ said, except for NZ, he does not expect any QF international flights before July 2021

Qantas warns of skeleton service for overseas travel until mid 2021

Qantas has announced a drastic three-year plan to ensure the airline’s survival during the coronavirus crisis which includes a massive reduction in domestic flights as well as an indefinite grounding of its long haul service.

www.news.com.au

Qantas’ flagship A380 jumbo jets, which service international flights, will be sent to a storage facility in the Mojave Desert in the US until the middle of 2023 at least.
“We’re parking the A380 for at least three years because they don’t have any use, we think, during this period of time.”

I don't expect I'll be going OS in 2021!!!

 

[kelvedon]

Jetstars Newcastle maintenance and crew base to be closed too.

 

[dajop]

If you look what's happening and the level of concern (hysteria?) (particularly from other state Premiers) around Melbourne's hotspots, July 2021 may well be looking more likely than January 2021. And no way current restrictions will be relaxed in the next 6 months.

 

[JB expat]

I came on to post when I read this line "Qantas says it does not expect to fly internationally other than to New Zealand for another 12 months... "A resumption of international flights "will take a long time," he [Mr Joyce] explained. "There'll be nothing this next financial year."

Qantas to sack more than 6000 workers; launch $1.9 billion raising

Does this mean no international flights until July 2021?!!!!

Wonder whether there will be another extension of FF status (I know, a first world problem).

 

[SeatBackForward]

If you look what's happening and the level of concern (hysteria?) (particularly from other state Premiers) around Melbourne's hotspots, July 2021 may well be looking more likely than January 2021. And no way current restrictions will be relaxed in the next 6 months.

There's only two ways out of this:
1) a Vaccine that is *proven* to be effective, and realistically, this is still a long way off, they'll hasten trials and release something sooner, but without being able to prove its effectiveness, OR
2) Instant and non-invasive testing that produces a response in seconds and detects the virus in the early asymptomatic phase. As this will become the means of basically allowing people to essentially, do anything from boarding a plane to entering a workplace.

 

[drron]

There is definitely a third way as happened with the Spanish flu.New mutations making the virus less infective.
And then a fourth way.One of the biological agents being studied becomes an effective and safe treatment against the virus.

I just know at some point in time we are going to live with the virus just as we have with all previous pandemic infectious agents.

 

[jakeseven7]

There is definitely a third way as happened with the Spanish flu.New mutations making the virus less infective.
And then a fourth way.One of the biological agents being studied becomes an effective and safe treatment against the virus.

I just know at some point in time we are going to live with the virus just as we have with all previous pandemic infectious agents.

Just need to let the hysteria subside a little and people to get this.... including some AFF members

 

[DC3]

Just need to let the hysteria subside a little and people to get this.... including some AFF members

That will become too boring if fellow-AFFers started to do that sort of thing.

 

[dajop]

I just know at some point in time we are going to live with the virus just as we have with all previous pandemic infectious agents.

Oh, I think most of us can agree on that.

 

[jakeseven7]

That will become too boring if fellow-AFFers started to do that sort of thing.

Mmm I find the hysterical reporting a little OTT, we have Fakebook for that sort of things. But if makes them feel better to vent here I suppose it helps someone!

 

[N860CR]

There is definitely a third way as happened with the Spanish flu.New mutations making the virus less infective.

Correct. And I believe we are seeing that already. The daily death rate peaked at just over 10,000 in mid-April and it’s been trending down since then (despite the infection rate increasing).

The issue will be our politicians accepting this and working with it, rather than continuing to kick the can down the road.

 

[JB expat]

Correct. And I believe we are seeing that already. The daily death rate peaked at just over 10,000 in mid-April and it’s been trending down since then (despite the infection rate increasing).

The issue will be our politicians accepting this and working with it, rather than continuing to kick the can down the road.

That may be true in some cases - but not everywhere:

With cases surging in the Houston area, the city’s intensive-care units are now filled to 97 percent of capacity, Mayor Sylvester Turner told the City Council on Wednesday, with Covid-19 patients accounting for more than one-quarter of all patients in intensive care.


I'm very happy to be living in Australia, that's for sure

 

[Gremlin]

Correct. And I believe we are seeing that already. The daily death rate peaked at just over 10,000 in mid-April and it’s been trending down since then (despite the infection rate increasing).

The issue will be our politicians accepting this and working with it, rather than continuing to kick the can down the road.

There's seasonality in reporting over the course of a week generally and some one-offs which skew daily numbers one way or the other so I've been looking at rolling seven day reports of both infections and deaths. Looking at rolling seven day numbers, the trend in deaths worldwide troughed on the 26th of May at 4,079 per day, down from a peak of just under 7,000 on the 18th of April. Since then it has been steadily increasing again. It is now at 4,627 per day which is more than a 10% increase in the past 4 weeks. Certainly not in line with the growth in new case numbers, but the suggestion that it's been falling since mid-April appears to be no longer valid.

Worldwide deaths and case numbers

 

[N860CR]

Since then it has been steadily increasing again. It is now at 4,627 per day which is more than a 10% increase in the past 4 weeks. Certainly not in line with the growth in new case numbers, but the suggestion that it's been falling since mid-April appears to be no longer valid.

Except the infection rate is a lot higher. The actual numbers are largely irrelevant when looking at volume of cases.

If you follow the trend graphs, infection vs mortality rate are continually moving apart which is definitely good news. It’s no doubt due to better knowledge when it comes to treating cases, but there must be an element of the virus weakening there as well.

Remember as well that the more reported infection cases also means a logical increase in the number of cases that go unreported as symptoms are not recognized. The WHO said the likely infection rate was 2-3 times higher than reported, so we’re fast approaching half a million daily cases with a mortality rate that dropped and is now only slowly increasing.