Ethiopian 737 Max 8 crash and Fallout

[Must...Fly!]

VA would have made longer term plans around the fleet and these orders - i.e. leases for existing aircraft - so I wouldn't expect any change to the order. If there is a problem it can be fixed.

That said if they had their time over perhaps the NEO looks more attractive today.

 

[CaptJCool]

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/bu...in-wake-of-fatal-crashes-20190312-p513hi.html

UpdatedMarch 12, 2019 — 7.46pmfirst published at 11.54am

Virgin Australia has 40 MAX aircraft on order, and said it was "closely watching the situation", flagging it could change its order depending on the outcome of the investigations.

"With our first aircraft delivery not due until November this year, we believe there is sufficient time to consider the outcome of the investigation and make an assessment," a Virgin spokeswoman said.

I’m surprised by the adventurous ‘reckless’ style of “nothing to see around here”

Fortunately caution and conservatism won the day ......

 

[kamchatsky]

VA would have made longer term plans around the fleet and these orders - i.e. leases for existing aircraft - so I wouldn't expect any change to the order. If there is a problem it can be fixed.

That said if they had their time over perhaps the NEO looks more attractive today.

I think the problem is that they have so many 737s in operation and to switch to A320Neo meant retraining of a lot of pilots, not to higher cost of maintenance of mixed fleets.

I am glad that CASA is banning 7M8 because if VA do indeed take those planes into production I won't be flying VA at all, even though I am a VA Plat as I won't risk a last minute substitute of plane.

I have a feeling that to make the plane very safe that Boeing would need to make significant design changes, and Boeing knows it and it is trying to tinkering around the edges, but couldn't resolve the problem without spending so much money and time on it. I doubt software update would be enough in this case.

 

[jakeseven7]

I think the problem is that they have so many 737s in operation and to switch to A320Neo meant retraining of a lot of pilots, not to higher cost of maintenance of mixed fleets.

Quick! VA should reverse the Tiger migration and hold onto those A320’s

I bet QF are sighing in relief they gave their 99 fleet order for JQ to Airbus not Boeing at the moment....

VA would have made longer term plans around the fleet and these orders - i.e. leases for existing aircraft - so I wouldn't expect any change to the order. If there is a problem it can be fixed.

Read the article that was posted about Virgin probably not needing a replacement ‘anything’ and that this renewal burst is ‘indulgent’ and then the part where the incoming CEO’s suite of KPI is return on invested capital.... if he could work around the problem and ditch the upgrade programme might work for him and the shareholders

"With our first aircraft delivery not due until November this year, we believe there is sufficient time to consider the outcome of the investigation and make an assessment," a Virgin spokeswoman said.

Continues: ‘Our previous CEO who racked up over 2 billion in losses over his time unfortunately inked this deal and we are hoping behind closed doors this gets us a refund’

 

[Must...Fly!]

I wouldn't be disappointed if VA kept a fleet of mainly B738s but they need more of them. It's plainly (IMO) not enough to keep up with the transcontinental flying and be a competitive alternative to QF at the moment (as long as the A330s keep going to HKG)

 

[juddles]

I don't think anyone else has mentioned it, but for some reason this accident and the Lion Air accident both sound (to a total industry outsider that has no knowledge of aircraft systems) very similar to QF72. An aircraft that decided to pitch down suddenly on its own a couple of times without manual inputs due to a faulty sensor and/or software.

Lots of comment on this board throwing bile at Boeing a couple intimating the B737Max is a total lemon.

A330's aren't from Boeing and I didn't see A330's being grounded all over the world.

Perhaps because nobody died - but 315 certainly could have if it wasn't for QF pilot intervention.

p & t, I would not describe the opinions expressed as "throwing bile". There is a very serious concern about MCAS, not just its safety (or lack there of) but the whole concept of an airline manufacturer making software that effectively can erroneously take control of an airplane and crash it, despite the best efforts of the pilot, when there is NOTHING actually wrong with the plane's basic ability to fly.

As for it being a "total lemon", I would disagree with that interpretation of insult. What most are saying here is that the absolutely excellent 737 airframe is now very old, and the limit to simple updates has been crossed, and Boeing sticking to it is ever more a process of patchwork.

You have to love this line though "The FAA expects to mandate design changes to some systems and signaling on board by April."

MCAS is apparently only there because of the FAA.

I get this. My understanding (as a lay person but who is interested in such things) is that the whole MCAS was a patch brought in at last minute to meet some FAA demands. I could be wrong though.....

Some stuff on the updates from Boeing

Boeing Statement on 737 MAX Software Enhancement

For the past several months and in the aftermath of Lion Air Flight 610, Boeing has been developing a flight control software enhancement for the 737 MAX, designed to make an already safe aircraft even safer. This includes updates to the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight control law, pilot displays, operation manuals and crew training. The enhanced flight control law incorporates angle of attack (AOA) inputs, limits stabilizer trim commands in response to an erroneous angle of attack reading, and provides a limit to the stabilizer command in order to retain elevator authority.​

I love that cough-covering "make an already safe aircraft even safer". I know they have to say such things, but it does hurt a tad. The changes are being made because the aircraft was proven to have the ability to murder all the occupants if the pilot was not perfect in correcting the AIRCRAFT'S errors! MCAS, and even more so it's secret implementation, was and is not safe.

I think on a global scale the audacious use of the word "enhanced" here is seriously infringing on the Qantas "enhanced" thingy

 

[coriander]

UK, France and Ireland now also have banned Max8s from using their airspace.
Edit: the EU has now also joined the banned wagon .

 

[Must...Fly!]

Yes as above EASA has issued an AWD.

EASA suspends all Boeing 737 Max operations in Europe | EASA

If they were not already the FAA looking like the black sheep here...

Filtering FR24 for just the MAX has been interesting over the past day...pretty much the better only operators left are Oman Air, Flydubai and airlines in North America

 

[Melburnian1]

Given that no purchaser pays 'list price', how much per day would a lessor or airline owner of one of these newish MAX 8s claim in compensation from Boeing for aircraft sitting unused?

 

[pauly7]

Yes as above EASA has issued an AWD.

EASA suspends all Boeing 737 Max operations in Europe | EASA

If they were not already the FAA looking like the black sheep here...

Filtering FR24 for just the MAX has been interesting over the past day...pretty much the better only operators left are Oman Air, Flydubai and airlines in North America

US politicians calling on FAA to act immediately and follow AU, EU et al and ground the MAX. Interesting to see how long they can hold out.

 

[pauly7]

UK, France and Ireland now also have banned Max8s from using their airspace.
Edit: the EU has now also joined the banned wagon .

Interesting if you were on those Turkish Airline Max flights to London, mid air turn around as your plane has been banned due to safety concerns! Sweaty palms for a few passengers until rubber hit the road I’m sure!

 

[Sukina]

Yet DQ-FAB operating as FJ1914 departed SYD for NAN at 6:15am this morning! How did this happen if CASA’s ban was in place?

 

[RooFlyer]

Yes I just noticed that too

 

[Must...Fly!]

The commercial flight was listed cancelled last night. It'll be an empty ferry back to base.

 

[OATEK]

Yet DQ-FAB operating as FJ1914 departed SYD for NAN at 6:15am this morning! How did this happen if CASA’s ban was in place?

Allowed to depart our airspace, having arrived prior to the ban?

 

[straitman]

Allowed to depart our airspace, having arrived prior to the ban?

It depends upon what the ban entails. Ferry flights of empty a/c are not unusual even if the a/c is not cleared for passenger operations.

 

[Sukina]

The commercial flight was listed cancelled last night. It'll be an empty ferry back to base.

I suspect this too, but why have CASA make a ban and then go ahead and allow the aircraft to fly?! Surely a ban is a ban, regardless of how may pax on board.
The ongoing implications of this exception mean that two aircraft (DQ FAB, and DQ FAD - which flew to NAN yesterday morning pre-ban) will now be able to continue to fly South Pacific routes.

 

[Quickstatus]

UK, France and Ireland now also have banned Max8s from using their airspace.
Edit: the EU has now also joined the banned wagon .

So now the only significant fleet of 737M8 still in the air are AA and WN?
Are the US regulators painting themselves into a corner with the recent FAA media release?

TK1997 and TK1969 turned around after the UK grounds the 737M8. They were allowed to arrive but would not be allowed to subsequently depart. TK probably thought it better to return the aircraft to TK than for them to be stranded in the UK

TUI and Norwegian also operate the 737M8. I have not checked what they are doing with their Max flights into the UK




Also posted here: 737 Max 8 Grounding

 

[pauly7]

I suspect this too, but why have CASA make a ban and then go ahead and allow the aircraft to fly?! Surely a ban is a ban, regardless of how may pax on board.
The ongoing implications of this exception mean that two aircraft (DQ FAB, and DQ FAD - which flew to NAN yesterday morning pre-ban) will now be able to continue to fly South Pacific routes.

And our poor old kiwi cousins who are a bit slow off the mark. Ban coming soon I’m sure.

 

[serfty]

FJ are still selling seats on this morning's flight from BNE to NAN:

[edit]CORRECTION: THEY HAVE SUBBED IT FOR A 73H[/edit]
Results from https://www.ExpertFlyer.com

Flight Availability Search
Departing BNE on 13/03/19 12:00 AM for NAN, Flying FJ

                                                                     Frequency
Flight        Stops  Depart             Arrive             Aircraft  Reliability 

FJ 920        0      BNE                NAN                7M8       Su,M,T,W,F  
                     13/03/19 11:10 AM  13/03/19 4:50 PM             82% / 45m
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