I haven't played 14 first-class matches and my country of origin will probably never make it above Division 5, but I feel that Cricket Australia "gets it" more than some people who have been invoking the "yeah, yeah, but, but, other people, on other teams, in the past..." defence. At least I hope so, because the backlash from cricket moms such as myself would not be pretty if the penalties turn out to be little more than a slap on the wrist.
I might not be up to speed, but to my knowledge it's still not 100% clear what was said when Bancroft showed the black sunglasses case or cloth or whatever it is. Best case scenario for Australia would be that he said something like "You don't want to look inside my jocks as well, do you?" And it was moderately commendable that they admitted to it so quickly (once caught); as Michael Vaughan said, England probably wouldn't have let anyone face the media if in a similar position.
But if Bancroft straight out lied to the umpires there with his captain standing next to him... seriously not a good look, and I would expect CA to consider those sort of optics when it comes to something like that, just as their sponsors will.
Having spoken to other cricket parents today, I think it would be unwise to underestimate the impact of this sort of thing at the grass-roots level. And I doubt CA will. On Tuesday one of the parents said something in reference to the sledging along the lines of "I wish they'd just shut up and play cricket", but unfortunately they didn't really do either.