What's the truth about Bali?

[4lex]

On a previous Bali weekender, flying jetstar, we noticed that air Asia were the only airline operating in the wake of some volcanic activity. All other carriers had canx citing safety concerns. A pilot friend of a friend suggested the real reason, which sounded reasonable to me, was that it was prohibitively expensive for non indo carriers to potentially have equipment on ground in Bali in the event the conditions did worsen to the point of actual safety risk.

So this last time we flew QZ, in the hope that same logic might hold. Not so much. Air Asia seized the opportunity to cancel flights wholesale, none to per in a week, followed by 1/3 after that. We ended up delayed 9 nights.

Other carriers operated. Notably malindo just quietly got on with it. Jetstar got on the news to gain the free publicity about running rescue flights, then quietly cancelled the majority once the piece had aired.

Despite lengthy hold times on international calls, no one would sell us a seat leaving dps for a week, yet flights hit the tarmac in per less that 50% loaded. The flight we eventually got on, 5/12, was less than 20% load. Photos on social media of all carriers aircraft well below capacity.

We'd witnessed countless desperate stranded tourists trying to score a seat, a couple next to us trying to get to their daughter's gradation were rejected, no seats available. And oh, no way could they take ours apparently..

I don't get the whole deal. I suspect air Asia cancelled their flights as they were unlikely to have many outbound pax, and to hell with the return load. But running empty planes back with literally an airport full of passengers, many willing to pay whatever to get home? I can only assume some kind of carriers insurance made it unattractive to sell the seats. I'll take some convincing the decision wasn't commercial anyway.

Anyone have any real insights into what factors were really at play?

Cheers,
Alex

 

[michaele]

As someone who was in Bali (and changed the flights as we were over there to come home slightly early - landing back in AUS the day JQ grounded the planes) I'm interested too.

 

[Danger]

The word "safety" is often thrown around like confetti at a wedding but, yes, I also suspect there's probably more to it.

 

[n7of9]

Sounds like a coughpy situation, I'm sure it was very frustrating

Out of curiosity, were you trying to purchase a seat for 9 days and no airline would sell you one on their half empty planes, or were you waiting to be reaccommodated for free after your cancelled flight? I'm not implying you should have paid, I'm just honestly curious for future info's sake

 

[Happy Dude]

So there were less-than full planes departing Bali, leaving stranded passengers in the terminal, plenty of whom were willing to pay to be on those planes?

That sounds like the worst business model of all time, reminiscent of the nite-clubs that don't let anyone in so there's a line at the door thus creating a perception of demand and exclusivity.

I think the suggestion that the insurance companies controlling loads over a long period so prices drop is a bit tin-foil hat. They'd have to pay for hotels, food etc then. Also, I'm not sure why carriers would cancel in-bound flights if landing at DPS was allowed. Wouldn't that mean they and the insurance companies would have to accommodate/compensate those pax? Surely sticking to the schedule is the most efficient/profitable thing to do.

But I wasn't there and don't work in any of those industries. Not very insightful, sorry.

 

[4lex]

Yes, I was trying to book any carrier for money.

No, I wasn't suggesting it was the insurer of the passenger causing the problem, though of course most have quietly side stepped their obligations in small print back in September (though would happily sell a policy excluding volcanos without discount at the time of our departure).

I'm a self insured traveller, I have never bought insurance in thirty years, and am well ahead on that basis despite the four or five grand hit on this trip.

My suspicion, based on the obvious lack of incentive to sell the seats, is that the carriers sell that risk and get paid either way.

Any of our airline reps care to try to explain how else this could happen? I'm genuinely interested, and it will influence my buying decisions forward.

 

[mannej]

What airline reps?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Despite lengthy hold times on international calls, no one would sell us a seat leaving dps for a week, yet flights hit the tarmac in per less that 50% loaded. The flight we eventually got on, 5/12, was less than 20% load. Photos on social media of all carriers aircraft well below capacity.

Anyone have any real insights into what factors were really at play?

Flights going out sub-capacity during IRROPS is fairly common. Had it in the USA during extreme weather and Asia as well, also weather related. Flights 'full' and even waitlists closed, but on the plane there turns out to be several (or more) empty seats.

I suspect there could be a number of reasons at play... perhaps including logistics, fuel, or weight and balance issues. It might be that planes have to be weight restricted in the event of long taxis and the potential to divert to another airport.

It could be a lack of interest by overstretched ground staff, or simply a lack of resources on the ground to handle 'real time' flight loadings. I've got seats on flights which have been 'oversold' by standing at check-in counters and as soon as the flight has closed asking if there have been any no-shows. But that in itself isn't always an easy solution... even electronic tickets sometimes take quite a while for the airline to transfer/revalidate/reticket. And by the time you do that it's too late for the passenger to complete exit immigration, or security, or to get pax bags to the flight, or to change the fuel ordered (etc etc).

 

[docjames]

I'm a self insured traveller, I have never bought insurance in thirty years, and am well ahead on that basis despite the four or five grand hit on this trip.

How do you cover major medical events (touch wood)?

 

[snabbu]

How do you cover major medical events (touch wood)?

I read it as the OP has been traveling for 30 years without any travel insurance and has been lucky not to have had a major medical event during that time.

 

[Pushka]

Sounds like a tweet or Facebook post might get some response but we know they will just respond with ‘safety’ stuff even though with respect to empty flights and fare paying passengers being unable to buy seats, is completely irrelevant.
(I hate tweets but it seems that’s the only way to get some action)

 

[docjames]

I read it as the OP has been traveling for 30 years without any travel insurance and has been lucky not to have had a major medical event during that time.

I guess that was what I was seeking to clarify.

 

[theblank]

I don't get the whole deal. I suspect air Asia cancelled their flights as they were unlikely to have many outbound pax, and to hell with the return load. But running empty planes back with literally an airport full of passengers, many willing to pay whatever to get home? I can only assume some kind of carriers insurance made it unattractive to sell the seats. I'll take some convincing the decision wasn't commercial anyway.
\x

Makes sense to me. the Rescue flights (empty planes to bali) were sent for the sole purpose of bringing that airlines stranded passengers home.
The seats were not availble for sale, plain and simple.

The airline would not have much of an idea how many passengers would turn up at the airport for check in, until the passengers have checked in.

It would have taken some logistical gymnastics to make the seats available for sale with maybe half an our or less before check in closes. There also maybe regulatory compliance hurdles that makes sale of seats on these flights impossible.

 

[xt_20]

I have a theory: Airlines are not as well organised as you may expect them to be. The left hand does not talk to the right hand, or the sales team does not talk to the ops team, and they all make their own assumptions.

I also read recently that some airlines have trouble contacting their customers because they do not have mobile numbers listed, only their travel agent's numbers which would go unanswered outside of office hours. Thus they could not contact travelers at the last minute.

 

[Cynicor]

Yes, I was trying to book any carrier for money.

I'm a self insured traveller, I have never bought insurance in thirty years, and am well ahead on that basis despite the four or five grand hit on this trip.

I'm not going into the intelligence of "self insuring" something as potentially expensive as overseas medical costs, but considering annual policies can be had for around $200 you can't be that far ahead if you took a $5000 hit. That 25 years straight up.

 

[theblank]

but considering annual policies can be had for around $200

or for free if you have a Gold or above Credit card. Surely someone that travels so much would have a credit card.