Predictive analytics and how big data will drive up airline ticket prices

[QF WP]

A very interesting article by an AFF'er into metadata and how it can/is/should be used by airlines and their loyalty programs...

https://www.traveldatadaily.com/how-big-data-is-changing-the-way-we-fly/?l=2

Scary but it is the way of the future (or is it already here)

 

[NZflygirl]

Somewhat interesting but really.....all they need to worry about is what their competitors are offering!!!

Price, schedule and hard product are my main criteria. DSC/50% promos aren't common enough to be a major factor. I'll make use of them if it fits into my schedule but don't go out of my way. I'll admit there's the temptation but I've resisted so far! TBH if I went to an AFF event they may just bring down my last wall of will power!

 

[Happy Trails]

Good luck to them trying to make sense of my rat's nest of bookings.

 

[trippin_the_rift]

Good luck to them trying to make sense of my rat's nest of bookings.

human foraging behaviour shows patterns and links between data points even if you think your life is totally random

qantas can already predict when you're going to book a flight with a high degree of accuracy.

 

[Skyring]

human foraging behaviour shows patterns and links between data points even if you think your life is totally random
qantas can already predict when you're going to book a flight with a high degree of accuracy.

My car and my phone talk to each other. I'll hop in the car, slot the phone into the holder, and I'll get an alert telling me how far it is to my destination and what the traffic is like on the way.

Sometimes it guesses wrong, but it's right enough times to be kind of scary.

I run a couple of websites, and I installed Google Analytics on them. They can track the behaviour of any visitors and inform me with the aggregates (and the details if I jump through a few more hoops). Very handy, but Google is taking in information from a vast number of sites, and selling it on. The data is out there, and there's enough incentive for Qantas and others to try to grab my dollars, to develop the systems to exploit the habits and the desires of the millions of customers it gets each year.

How many flights have you been on where Every Single Seat is occupied? Expect more of that.

 

[ftm]

A fascinating evolution. The multitude of distribution outlets makes it harder (people don't just search on the airlines website) but I'm sure we will start the see differential pricing based on profiles in the future.

 

[defurax]

qantas can already predict when you're going to book a flight with a high degree of accuracy.

Too bad they can't predict that I don't plan a trip to MEL from MEL while I live in MEL...

 

[CaptJCool]

Too bad they can't predict that I don't plan a trip to MEL from MEL while I live in MEL...

i read this article sometime ago...
http://www.actuaries.asn.au/Library/Events/FSF/2012/AnalyticsOfLoyalty3BChandlerTubman.pdf

regardless, of seeming no patterns, there are patterns

In this article Predictive Analytics World: How to Lower Costs with Predictive Analytics

Sure Things
Persuadables
Do not disturbs
Lost Causes

The absence of viewing the website or logging in or purchase of a QF product is also indicative
eg taking one way fares from a location to another. Obviously you had to be able to get back there some other way....

the $ you spend http://peoplelikeu.com.au/
even if they don't have exact financial info on you there's indicative info that substitutes for it.
the $ you spend on a ticket, the type of ticket is it you or your business or
the points you earn from credit cards can be matched up to work out an income calculation. Even your job title can be weighted. Chief bottle scrubber v assistant director, director, senior director all point to an income level as does age, residential addy plus who else you buy tics for eg children..


Loyalty is hard earnt but far more easily lost

 

[defurax]

i read this article sometime ago...
http://www.actuaries.asn.au/Library/Events/FSF/2012/AnalyticsOfLoyalty3BChandlerTubman.pdf

regardless, of seeming no patterns, there are patterns

In this article Predictive Analytics World: How to Lower Costs with Predictive Analytics

Sure Things
Persuadables
Do not disturbs
Lost Causes

The absence of viewing the website or logging in or purchase of a QF product is also indicative
eg taking one way fares from a location to another. Obviously you had to be able to get back there some other way....

the $ you spend http://peoplelikeu.com.au/
even if they don't have exact financial info on you there's indicative info that substitutes for it.
the $ you spend on a ticket, the type of ticket is it you or your business or
the points you earn from credit cards can be matched up to work out an income calculation. Even your job title can be weighted. Chief bottle scrubber v assistant director, director, senior director all point to an income level as does age, residential addy plus who else you buy tics for eg children..


Loyalty is hard earnt but far more easily lost

Interesting reads.

 

[trippin_the_rift]

Loyalty is hard earnt but far more easily lost

I love this quote because it sums up how consumers view loyalty programs.

For Qantas Loyalty (and other companies with FFPs) - they are really data marketing companies. They want your loyalty to their currency (through any of their partners).
Whereas consumers see them as an airline loyalty program with a few non-air partners; and thus a perception about being a loyal airline passenger.

 

[JohnK]

human foraging behaviour shows patterns and links between data points even if you think your life is totally random

qantas can already predict when you're going to book a flight with a high degree of accuracy.

Not sure I agree fully with that statement.

I have started using Webjet for airfare searches for wife and daughter. If Qantas is not competitive then I don't book with them and book instead with Virgin/Jetstar. A few weeks back the airfare for SYD-BNE on Anzac Day was $163 or $194. Way too much. I found much cheaper on VA. On the day there were 49 passengers on my flight.

Surely that's a lost opportunity for Qantas to sell those tickets at a discount instead of trying maintain some perception of premium brand? I know one person doesn't make a huge difference but if anyone else thinks the same could be a bad thing for Qantas.

I about to book airfares on sale for October-December. If any airfares are greater than $109 sale price then I will seriously look at other airlines.

 

[trippin_the_rift]

Not sure I agree fully with that statement.

I have started using Webjet for airfare searches for wife and daughter. If Qantas is not competitive then I don't book with them and book instead with Virgin/Jetstar. A few weeks back the airfare for SYD-BNE on Anzac Day was $163 or $194. Way too much. I found much cheaper on VA. On the day there were 49 passengers on my flight.

Surely that's a lost opportunity for Qantas to sell those tickets at a discount instead of trying maintain some perception of premium brand? I know one person doesn't make a huge difference but if anyone else thinks the same could be a bad thing for Qantas.

I about to book airfares on sale for October-December. If any airfares are greater than $109 sale price then I will seriously look at other airlines.

Data science is all statistical guesswork. In the case of anyone with status there are other factors which come into play, such as how long you've retained status for in the past, what type of fares, socioeconomic and so on. This chart explains well how newcomers to the status game are 50% more likely to retain their status. Obviously as years go on, with little change in flying/status earning - your trends become more predictable.



My understanding of both QF and VA is they are both very new to differentiated/customized pricing, and as such is still driven by 'sophisticated' revenue management modeling.

As with anything in the big data game - if you want to receive offers, you need to display the right type of activity which triggers the deals. This could include dropping in status, or buying tickets you wouldn't normally purchase. Of course, not every airline will even pickup on this!

 

[QF WP]

That's a good reason that I switched all my (business) airline and travel expenditure to a non-airline-branded CC - it must be playing with their heads. Now it's only my personal travel with family that gets on an airline-branded CC, so with that only a couple of times a year, they can statistically guess that (and they will probably pick up that my spend goes elsewhere)

Qf can throw me any number of DSC and 1.5 SC offers and I'll still buy in accordance with my overlay (schedule, price, airline - in that order). If I get to use my points for an upgrade - bonus. Won't see me move off my (Lifetime) Silver status until I either retire or reach Lifetime Gold (whichever I achieve first).

 

[CaptJCool]

. "Customer in charge"

the nightmare of QF HQ