What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE?

[Melburnian1]

If what spokesmen for travel agents say to the media is correct - and they may have a vested interest - in many cases travellers soon forget sad or tragic events.

The exception is allegedly when events are repeated, as in how France has suffered more than once from Islamic terrorism.

The very recent sad loss of four lives from a malfunctioning, 30 year old ride at Dreamworld in southeast Queensland begs the question: given that in late October some families might be deciding where they spend Christmas school holidays (including the option of staying at home in states like Victoria or NSW, and just doing day trips with the children), will the Dreamworld occurrence have any discernible depressing effect on air bookings to and from OOL and BNE? If so, just over this Christmas and New Year/ January 2017, or longer, or not at all?

The tourism authority must think so as it pleaded with visitors to continue to come to Dreamworld (and presumably the Gold Coast more generally).

I'm not so sure: while Ardent Leisure handled the initial stages after the sad event poorly (although apparently its CEO was frustrated from being unable to quickly visit the affected families with government bureaucrats being of no assistance in linking her to them) and there will be a lot more adverse coverage, including of the heart wrenching funerals, the theme park has had a fairly good record to date in safety related matters - although the union, if one can believe anything a union leadership says, claims that there were numerous safety deficiencies at this well known theme park.

It is a separate matter but we may see Board members (directors) of Ardent Leisure and executives of Dreamworld facing not just a Coronial inquiry but eventual criminal charges, but that is a separate matter. I merely mention it as thatb too would result in a great deal of negative publicity.

Perhaps many tourists will still visit but simply self impose a ban on the ride that so horribly malfunctioned.

What do those with families, particularly young children, think? Is Dreamworld off your visiting list, or do you recognise that given millions of visitors a year this was an extremely rare event and inspectors will now be swarming all over, so the chance of a recurrence is miniscule?

Are other nearby (Gold Coast) theme parks likely to be unaffected by any reticence to visit Dreamworld? Would you not book a holiday by air anywhere these school holidays and substitute staying at home, or would you travel elsewhere by air, car or train instead - domestically or internationally?

 

[Quickstatus]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

There will be a lull, but like Bali after the 2 bombings things will return to normal sooner rather than later me thinks. Its a very hard time for all. Negotiation all this is like treading on eggshells.

I suspect the ride will be permanently shelved with a memorial at the site.

 

[Mal]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

I expect it to follow a similar course to the Smiler incident in the UK : Alton Towers 'set to close SIX rides next year as Smiler crash due to "human error"' - Mirror Online

Drop in Dreamworld overall revenue for a couple of years. Drop in other Theme park revenue on the Gold Coast. Follow through to ride closures due to attendance dropping. Ride will re-open in around a year.

Won't drastically affect Gold Coast tourism visits IMHO.

 

[Melburnian1]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

OOL depends more on leisure travellers, percentage wise of all RPT airline users, than BNE.

OOL has been growing faster in domestic passenger traffic than BNE. The latter has been badly affected by the downturn in the Queensland mining and LPG resource industries, but prices for coking and steaming coal have risen in the last few months.

There must be some competition for travellers from suburbs such as Beenleigh between OOL and BNE.

 

[Quickstatus]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

Is there short term need for BNE to build Runway 2?

I also wonder how WTB factors into the aggregate demand in that region.

 

[Jay Cee]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

Is there short term need for BNE to build Runway 2?

I also wonder how WTB factors into the aggregate demand in that region.

BNE needed the 2nd runway 10 years ago. China will be flying PAX in by the hundreds after it is open (if not before). As for Wellcamp, it does not have any affect on BNE or OOL.

As to Dreamworld. I suspect that numbers will drop off in the short term. However, Dreamworld & other theme parks have very good records and the public, especially locals, trust these parks are properly managed in the overall scheme of things. Our hearts go out to the bereaved & their families.

 

[serfty]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

Outside of Dreamworld itself The effect will be minimal ... those heading to Gold Coast would have booked the cheapest fares some time ago.

Those planning will have either been enthused by any short term drop in fares or forgotten by the time they get there.

 

[Hvr]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

I'm not so sure: while Ardent Leisure handled the initial stages after the sad event poorly (although apparently its CEO was frustrated from being unable to quickly visit the affected families with government bureaucrats being of no assistance in linking her to them) and there will be a lot more adverse coverage, including of the heart wrenching funerals, the theme park has had a fairly good record to date in safety related matters - although the union, if one can believe anything a union leadership says, claims that there were numerous safety deficiencies at this well known theme park.

It is a separate matter but we may see Board members (directors) of Ardent Leisure and executives of Dreamworld facing not just a Coronial inquiry but eventual criminal charges, but that is a separate matter. I merely mention it as thatb too would result in a great deal of negative publicity.

<snip>

A couple of points here: The CEO lied at the AGM and said she had contacted all of the affected families. She hadn't. By lying from the very beginning she has lost any shred of credibility and surely cannot be believed on anything else she says? Dismissal must surely be considered in the near future?

It appears that the company didn't have a contingency plan for such an incident. Any organisation with even a basic degree of competency has a contingency plan for when an emergency occurs. I've worked on them in both private business and government. It means that when something such as this occurs then you pull out the book and proceed.

After 9/11, Bali, Christchurch etcetera there is no excuse for any organisation not to have disaster plans.

If the company doesn't have the ability to to track down people killed at their facility then surely they can hardly be trusted to do the right thing by them? They must have legal counsel who would have the ability to track down the families? Heck just ask the journos! Maybe even look at Facebook?

As for "government bureaucrats being of no assistance" that's not their job nor is it appropriate for them to pass on personal details of people killed at a private company to anybody who asks.

"A fairly good record to date in safety related matters" only means that no one has died or been injured recently. It doesn't mean that things have been done properly, just that they haven't been caught and that nothing has gone wrong.

"The union, if one can believe anything a union leadership says, claims that there were numerous safety deficiencies at this well known theme park." Why can't we believe what the union says? Or even any union? The union is reporting what their members are telling them. You haven't presented any reason why they have less credibility than the CEO who has so far failed in her handling of this tragedy.

If the Board members and executives of the companies are found to have responsible then it is appropriate that criminal charges are brought before the court (nor have you said otherwise). The effect on the company and the industry is entirely their fault but I reckon they'll have their hands out for corporate welfare pretty quickly.

Frankly we hear all too often that private enterprise is efficient and government regulations stifle business. Yet if it emerges that failure to follow regulations was responsible for these tragic deaths then the penalties must be severe, not tokenistic as is often the case when private enterprises cause deaths, especially of employees.

Yes the industry will be adversely affected but it's their own fault. Now they must prove they're competent to run their businesses is a safe manner and regain the confidence of their potential customers.

 

[N860CR]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

"The union, if one can believe anything a union leadership says, claims that there were numerous safety deficiencies at this well known theme park."[/I] Why can't we believe what the union says? Or even any union? The union is reporting what their members are telling them. You haven't presented any reason why they have less credibility than the CEO who has so far failed in her handling of this tragedy.

If the Board members and executives of the companies are found to have responsible then it is appropriate that criminal charges are brought before the court (nor have you said otherwise). The effect on the company and the industry is entirely their fault but I reckon they'll have their hands out for corporate welfare pretty quickly.

Frankly we hear all too often that private enterprise is efficient and government regulations stifle business. Yet if it emerges that failure to follow regulations was responsible for these tragic deaths then the penalties must be severe, not tokenistic as is often the case when private enterprises cause deaths, especially of employees.

Yes the industry will be adversely affected but it's their own fault. Now they must prove they're competent to run their businesses is a safe manner and regain the confidence of their potential customers.

Because unions are self serving bullies who do nothing but increase the deficit and create wages that are far too high, remember....

It's incidents like these that should remind people why we need to keep big business under control. They "couldn't get in touch with the families"... trust me, they didn't try. "Getting in touch" is admitting liability.

Just ask the people who survived the Pelair ditching off Norfolk Island. They're still waiting on a phone call from Rex.

Damn those unions!

 

[JohnPhelan]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

If the Board members and executives of the companies are found to have responsible then it is appropriate that criminal charges are brought before the court (nor have you said otherwise). The effect on the company and the industry is entirely their fault but I reckon they'll have their hands out for corporate welfare pretty quickly.

Yes the industry will be adversely affected but it's their own fault. Now they must prove they're competent to run their businesses is a safe manner and regain the confidence of their potential customers.

Perhaps it would be wise to wait for the investigation to take place and the coronial inquiry to make findings before allocating the blame to anyone or anything. All anyone knows right now is that the first raft got stuck, which led to the second raft (with the people in it) being upended.

Not helpful to anyone - most especially the relatives of those killed - to speculate on cause and responsibility.

 

[mannej]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

Perhaps it would be wise to wait for the investigation to take place and the coronial inquiry to make findings before allocating the blame to anyone or anything. All anyone knows right now is that the first raft got stuck, which led to the second raft (with the people in it) being upended.

Not helpful to anyone - most especially the relatives of those killed - to speculate on cause and responsibility.

Pure and simple it is human nature to speculate after an incident such as this.

 

[jb747]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

I wonder if there will be any such rides even allowed, if there is the remotest possibility of people ending up in the mechanism. That seems to be such a basic failure of safety...it won't be a return to business as usual.

 

[Melburnian1]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

I wonder if there will be any such rides even allowed, if there is the remotest possibility of people ending up in the mechanism. That seems to be such a basic failure of safety...it won't be a return to business as usual.

Yes, as a rider of these sort of 'amusements' I would have presumed - incorrectly - that the raft would take up so much room, and be so close to the edge of the attraction on both sides, that it would be impossible for it to flip and any of us be caught in a conveyor belt or similar contraption. That's if I'd even thought about it before riding such an attraction.

No doubt the engineers are pouring over it and will present an extremely technical, detailed report to government.

Many have been scared to go on rides such as 'Apollos' that catapault into the sky, because so many community members suffer from vertigo. Perhaps that caution will now extend to anything that isn't gentle in its voyage along a creek-type canal, as the one that malfunctioned had some 'rapids.'

 

[Melburnian1]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

Getting back to the effect - some or nil - on airline bookings, this research note appears (in an abridged form) online at 'The Australian' on 31 October.

If true, given that some visitors fly from interstate, it must be at least possible that airlines such as JQ and TT may experience lower seat occupancies, assuming some passengers don't come to the Gold Coast at all and stay at home, or use other modes to go on a holiday:

[FONT=&quot]Bell Potter analyst John O'Shea said it remains unclear what the financial impact of the Dreamworld tragedy will be on Ardent's earnings.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]"What is clear, is that if the park re-opens, attendances will be adversely impacted," he said in a research note.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]"It remains unclear what financial and other penalties will be incurred if the company is found to be responsible in any way and how insurance cover fits into this scenario."[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]He estimated Dreamworld's visitor numbers will decline about 20 per cent in the 2017 financial year and then gradually improve.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Mr O'Shea also estimated earnings for Ardent's theme parks business - which includes WhiteWater World, also on the Gold Coast - would more than halve from $34.7 million to $15 million in 2016/17[/FONT]

 

[Quickstatus]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

VIC the workers paradise has a very long weekend Sat Sun Mon Tues. some may have taken a sickie on Friday instead of the Monday prior to the Race that stops...

So it is interesting QF pressed into service an extra MEL-OOL service on Friday 28 Oct. Granted these bookings were made long before the Dreamword tragedy but for the moment people booked to go to that region will still go and spend their $$ there.

 

[empressjo]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

I am lucky enough to be 'resting' in Brisbane this last 2 weeks so have been around many of the locals who have been devistaed like us all, but also showing loyalty to their 'backyard'. I was told they won't let the bad press effect their tourist economy, but could see a rebranding or changing of the guard to show they have learnt & grown.

its the jobs & small businesses who would be effected the most from the loss of trade.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

Perhaps it would be wise to wait for the investigation to take place and the coronial inquiry to make findings before allocating the blame to anyone or anything. All anyone knows right now is that the first raft got stuck, which led to the second raft (with the people in it) being upended.

Not helpful to anyone - most especially the relatives of those killed - to speculate on cause and responsibility.

I think speculation can be relevant. Waiting the days, weeks or months for an 'official' outcome could see a repeat of the disaster.

Why dictate that the general public have to be mute, can't form an opinion for themselves, and be unable to make a decision on whatever analysis they can find as to whether they want to take the risk on a similar ride(s) in the future?

 

[Deleted member 29185]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

Perhaps it would be wise to wait for the investigation to take place and the coronial inquiry to make findings before allocating the blame to anyone or anything. All anyone knows right now is that the first raft got stuck, which led to the second raft (with the people in it) being upended.

Not helpful to anyone - most especially the relatives of those killed - to speculate on cause and responsibility.

Given they are only just today recreating events to determine if the cause can be established, I'd say your comments are wise and respectful. Anything else is speculation around a tragic and rare event which does nothing for the families who lost loved ones.

As for how this will impact the tourism industry? It won't. All the theme parks are exceptionally safe however accidents can happen in life, but we have to remember that in the decades that the major GC theme parks have operated, with many millions of visitors enjoying them, there have previously been few, if any, deaths due to ride failures and I actually lost a neighbour, friend and work colleague (the one person) at Wet'n'Wild about twenty years ago (in the year my son was born and he now works there, also as an electrician) in an electrocution accident. It doesn't make it any easier for those involved, but these incidents are extremely rare and the risk management is very good.

Let the course of the investigation run it's path.

 

[Melburnian1]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

...As for how this will impact the tourism industry? It won't. All the theme parks are exceptionally safe however accidents can happen in life, but we have to remember that in the decades that the major GC theme parks have operated, with many millions of visitors enjoying them, there have previously been few, if any, deaths due to ride failures...

The second sentence is true, but an event being 'rare' means that there is more media focus when it occurs, and hence a greater possibility that either vacationers will switch their holiday dollars to other theme parks or other activities in southeast Queensland, or not come at all.

That is the $64 million dollar question and why the tourism industry up in that part of Queensland is so nervous, because fewer visitors may mean, in time, loss of employment for others and profits for investors and shareholders.

In turn, if fewer visitors arrive from interstate, that must by definition cut into passenger numbers to OOL and to a far lesser extent BNE. It's very hard to isolate these figures normally because the economy has so many variables, but should there be any sort of a noticeable drop in domestic airline passengers to or from OOL, the Dreamworld incident will at least partly be blamed.

 

[Deleted member 29185]

Re: What effect, if any will the Dreamworld loss of life have on bookings to OOL/ BNE

I wonder if there will be any such rides even allowed, if there is the remotest possibility of people ending up in the mechanism. That seems to be such a basic failure of safety...it won't be a return to business as usual.

9/11 had an enormous impact on the airline industry for some time. Has that bounced back? You, better than most, understand mechanical failure. Is mechanical failure different in aircraft to theme parks? Please don't think I'm trying to berate your opinion, I'm just interested in it TBH. Is one considered an essential service and the other not?