When will AA replace its MD-80s?

[straitman]

Looks like we are stuck with the MD-80s for quite a while yet.

When will AA replace its MD-80s?

 

[NM]

Looks like we are stuck with the MD-80s for quite a while yet.

When will AA replace its MD-80s?

Bill, you may need to check the link in your post above. Seems to go nowhere.

 

[straitman]

Bill, you may need to check the link in your post above. Seems to go nowhere.

Oops :!:

American Airlines in dilemma on when to replace aging fleet

 

[docjames]

You'd think it would make sense to porgressively switch to the 737NG series, then in time switch to a newer airframe. Since they already operate so many 737s, there'd be some cost savings in that alone, plus as the article mentions, it is signifiantly cheaper per seat mile anyway. I think the lead time on the next generation narrow body aircraft is too long if they;ve got 25 year old jets flying around.


Alternatively, they'll need to go to boeing and demand they bild it, with a start oder of 100 airframes minimum. But boeing's resources are under the pump with 787 currently.

Also, looks like AA arent the only one in that boat..........and QF arent far behind either.

 

[NM]

You'd think it would make sense to porgressively switch to the 737NG series, then in time switch to a newer airframe. Since they already operate so many 737s, there'd be some cost savings in that alone, plus as the article mentions, it is signifiantly cheaper per seat mile anyway. I think the lead time on the next generation narrow body aircraft is too long if they;ve got 25 year old jets flying around.

The concern from AA's perspective is that if they invest in more 737NG aircraft now, they will be left operating them for the next 20 years. And when Mr Boeing or Mr Airbus eventually deliver a new generation narrow body aircraft with a further 20% operating cost reduction, they may be left competing unfavourably against other operators who have a large fleet of such aircraft.

So its a difficult situation to stuck in - buy now and be uncompetitive later, or delay the purchase and continue to operate the older MD80 for another 8-12 years.

Alternatively, they'll need to go to boeing and demand they bild it, with a start oder of 100 airframes minimum. But boeing's resources are under the pump with 787 currently.

Neither manufacturer is in a position to build their next generation narrow body aircraft at the moment. All their engineering resources and investments are tied up in the 787 and A350 development. And they need to wait for the next generation of engines, such as the new geared turbo fan, to deliver the full efficiency savings. Neither Boeing nor Airbus is going to build too early and have the other come in two years later with an even bigger efficiency saving by waiting for the next technology cycle.

 

[docjames]

I just think that 8-12 or more years on 25 year old airframes will be problematical, not just on cost, but more on reliability, cancellations etc.

Alternatively do a lease deal on the 737NG. Then the lease company will carry it in the longer term, you just pay more upfront. Hopefully offest by the fuel economy gains by switching to the newer aircraft.

 

[NM]

I just think that 8-12 or more years on 25 year old airframes will be problematical, not just on cost, but more on reliability, cancellations etc.

Indeed it is all part of the equation.

Alternatively do a lease deal on the 737NG. Then the lease company will carry it in the longer term, you just pay more upfront. Hopefully offest by the fuel economy gains by switching to the newer aircraft.

I expect the AA bean counters have run lots of models to determine the best approach. Also need to consider their ability to fund a large leasing program and how that would affect their current cash-flow situation having recently fought off bankruptcy.

 

[docjames]

Bet they wish they were like emirates, just get government to buy for them.

 

[Evan]

Also, looks like AA arent the only one in that boat..........and QF arent far behind either.

I actually thing QF are ok, they have orders for many more B737's, A320's, B787's, A380's.
So they have a huge number of airframes on the order book, ie they have production slots for B737's, as the artical stated it could still be almost 5 years before the next production slow is available if current production rates continue.

All i can think is that it will be an interesting time for the American airlines (meaning not just AA, all of them) and they may have some short term pain yet to come. When you start talking a fuel cost difference of $20 a seat on the example they gave i would have thought it would have been worth investing in new A/C ASAP.

I guess the real issue for AA is that if they could get the planes today it may be a different story but after 2009 they would need to wait until 2013 for next production slots, by they a new aircraft should be close.

E

 

[clifford]

Bet they wish they were like emirates, just get government to buy for them.

It's easy when you are sitting on a huge pool of oil.

Great planning on al Makhtoum's part.

 

[Flying Fox]

Shame that they aren't replacing them faster cos I hate them. Got stuck in row 32 with my head right next to the engine. Really hard to hear myself think with an engine buzzing about 30cms from my ear.

I think that both Airbus & Boeing are being very smart at the moment saying that no 737 replacement is on the cards. They have lots to do with 787s 747-8, 380s and 350XWB to engineer. Plus as soon as someone offers a A320/B737NG the other will have to response.

So they both know not to start something that is going to send both companies into a spin.

 

[NM]

I think that both Airbus & Boeing are being very smart at the moment saying that no 737 replacement is on the cards. They have lots to do with 787s 747-8, 380s and 350XWB to engineer. Plus as soon as someone offers a A320/B737NG the other will have to response.

So they both know not to start something that is going to send both companies into a spin.

And I believe each manufacturer would be happy to give the other a 2 year head-start at this point in time. The two year lag would likely result in another 3-5% efficiency gains through technology improvements, and the next generation of narrow-body airliners are going to have a 20+ year life. So an initial 2-year lead is soon lost over an 18-year head-to-head sales battle where that 3-5% edge will make a huge difference to the bottom line.

 

[docjames]

Plus, there's no urgency to replace 737NG/A320 when

1. THey still sell..
2. There's no competitive pressure to upgrade.


= much easier $$$ for boeing and airbus, whilst they've got better things to worry about.

Which goes back to the fact i think they should slowly replace with 737NGs and then switch to future version in some years.

 

[Drav]

And I believe each manufacturer would be happy to give the other a 2 year head-start at this point in time. The two year lag would likely result in another 3-5% efficiency gains through technology improvements, and the next generation of narrow-body airliners are going to have a 20+ year life. So an initial 2-year lead is soon lost over an 18-year head-to-head sales battle where that 3-5% edge will make a huge difference to the bottom line.

Very true. Especially when you have everyone jumping up and down about biofuels. If someone manages to pull off a breakthrough, your 737 will suddenly become the SUV of the sky.

Spare production capacity seems to be the biggest issue at this point. I would tend to think they may go down the low rate replacement route - just to see what the market throws out, and then decide.

As a very very small side point- are the MD-80's as bad as they sound? they remind me of my horror trips on the Lockheed Tristars! (from what's posted on the net)

 

[NM]

As a very very small side point- are the MD-80's as bad as they sound? they remind me of my horror trips on the Lockheed Tristars! (from what's posted on the net)

From a passenger perspective, they are not too bad unless you are stuck way down the back. they have a 2x3 seating in economy, which means only 20% of seats are middle seats. And many AA regulars prefer the "Mad Dog" over the 737 and 757 in First Class.

 

[vt01]

From a passenger perspective, they are not too bad unless you are stuck way down the back. they have a 2x3 seating in economy, which means only 20% of seats are middle seats. And many AA regulars prefer the "Mad Dog" over the 737 and 757 in First Class.

I certainly like the MD80's in First class. Very quiet.
I've also travelled in Y a couple of times in half full aircraft and I was seated about half way down. I still found them quite comfortable and quiet. BUT, I have also travelled next to the engine and got an ear full.. Not pleasant.
I have 5 flights on these in the US in April and chose them over 737's where I could.

 

[Flying Fox]

Plus, there's no urgency to replace 737NG/A320 when

1. THey still sell..
2. There's no competitive pressure to upgrade.


= much easier $$$ for boeing and airbus, whilst they've got better things to worry about.

Which goes back to the fact i think they should slowly replace with 737NGs and then switch to future version in some years.

Good points. I guess the other indication that no replacement is on the cards is that Airbus is starting a second A320 line in China (IIRC) so why invest in that if you are going to offer a replacement?

And as you say, huge back orders for both A320/B737s and Boeing has two full time production lines for the B737 so the change-over costs would be massive.

Looks like AA is going to have to buy more 737s and gradually transition to the A320/B737NGs later on.

 

[NM]

BUT, I have also travelled next to the engine and got an ear full.. Not pleasant.

Indeed they are not so pleasant down the back.

 

[straitman]

Indeed they are not so pleasant down the back.

I have never had the misfortune :!:

 

[NM]

I have never had the misfortune :!:

Then you are lucky and I don't recommend trying it out for the experience. Back in my inexperienced days as an irregular AA passenger, I did not think to pre-allocate my seat. So even as a QF Platinum passenger, I was given a middle seat in the second last row on a Mad Dog. I think that it was then that I decided it was time to become a "smart" traveller and not just accept whatever is dished up to me.