What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[SYD]

Some highs we haven't seen for some time. FX markets possibly starting to factor in an interest rate hike in AU next week.

View attachment 500186

Add IDR to your list as another big increase tracking similar to NZD. Upwards!

 

[kpc]

Keep going little Aussie battler!

 

[transpactraveller]

AUD seems to be rising against all major currencies. ChatGPT tells me it's due to our interest rates going up whilst others are going down, a stronger economy compared to many other nations, and higher commodity prices boosting our export earnings.

 

[elanshin]

AUD seems to be rising against all major currencies. ChatGPT tells me it's due to our interest rates going up whilst others are going down, a stronger economy compared to many other nations, and higher commodity prices boosting our export earnings.

The main thing that's shaking up right now is AUD is currently perceived as one of the safest currencies combined with our treasury bond yields with the war.

Traditionally Yen has been the "safe haven" during uncertainty but it may be that the market feels disruption to oil supplies will hit Japan harder.

 

[RAM]

From a fund management or traders perspective (those based outside of Australia) - Australia & Canada are the purest commodity price plays. The amount of money that normally 'plays' around between USD, EUR, GBP & JPY are many times the normal turnover in the AUD. So when the focus shifts to the AUD....

The AUD & CAD are also relatively quite liquid markets (can buy/sell hundreds of millions USD equivalent at quite tight spreads) compared with any resource producing countries( where resource earnings are the majority of export earnings).

So when something unexpected happens to any major commodity price - the CAD and AUD are typically the winners or losers depending on what the cause is. Remember what happened to the AUD at the start of Covid?

Recently the CAD has its own troubles - so guess who's getting double leverage as a result? Up the fire stairs but then down the pole when the smart (dumb) knee jerk money changes its mind.

 

[clifford]

It's going down (for now), thankfully.

The traders have seen the light....

 

[SYD]

It's going down (for now), thankfully.

The traders have seen the light....

Still hovering around NZ$1.21 and given that I’m currently in NZ, I’m sweet with that bro!

 

[Hvr]

Still hovering around NZ$1.21 and given that I’m in NZ, I’m sweet with that bro!

I mean it's not like you have a choice.

 

[SYD]

I mean it's not like you have a choice.

It’s helping with the fuel bill on this road trip.

We’ve been away for the fuel “hunger games” at home!