What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[marki]

When the governor speaks, the markets react:

Aussie drops below 0.72 this afternoon.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-iron-ore-crumbles-20160523-gp24io.html

Not extremely happy what next dollar at 60 cents?

 

[JohnK]

Not extremely happy what next dollar at 60 cents?

One would hope it stabilises for a while.

Not sure what they are trying to achieve. If the bottom falls out of the housing market they'll have a lot more to worry about than controlling inflation.

 

[marki]

My thoughts precisely work smarter

 

[ncraigm]

About time Stevens started talking real. Every time someone from the RBA has made a speech in the past two years the AUD has rallied, so to finally see him talking it down is a relief. Bring on 60c.

 

[marki]

AUD = 50 cents soon believable ??

 

[amaroo]

View attachment 71364

AUD = 50 cents soon believable ??

That'll open up award availability

 

[dajop]

Almost seems like these well placed articles are blatant attempts to manipulate the market (although given the forces at work unlikely to...)

 

[Doctore1003]

Almost seems like these well placed articles are blatant attempts to manipulate the market (although given the forces at work unlikely to...)

More like lazy and/or ignorant journalism, ie. Writing a story basically saying the current trend will continue and there will be drama drama drama. And typically experts get quoted who get paid to have an opinion that sells. It just plays on people's emotions.

 

[marki]

Australian dollar too expensive, sell it: Deutsch
Bank that's what they say , but the there house is never in order

 

[cove]

The Australian dollar is an international play thing so it will continue to bob around. My last buy was at 0.7644 and it immediately went up to 0.77 to make me realise you cannot ever totally master a currency. All we can do is try to buy the highs.

 

[Foreigner]

It's not easy to get the numbers right but forex market is like stock market part of the established financial system. Play thing? Yes there are speculative participants in both.

 

[Doctore1003]

The Australian dollar is an international play thing so it will continue to bob around. My last buy was at 0.7644 and it immediately went up to 0.77 to make me realise you cannot ever totally master a currency. All we can do is try to buy the highs.

0.7644 was a great buy for USD! You should give yourself more credit, it was pretty close to the top. I'm a professional currency trader and I can tell you it's very hard to time the top of a rally, especially a bear market rally. I also loaded up on USD around then as my partner and I are holidaying in California this September. That does not mean I don't think we could rally back up to there again; it was just an odds calculation. There are no certainties in this game and the only kind of 'mastery' you need is mastery of process and odds analysis.

 

[marki]

The only certainty is uncertainty, odds analysis hard?

 

[Doctore1003]

The only certainty is uncertainty, odds analysis hard?

Odds analysis is hard and translating it into profitable action consistently is even harder!

 

[RAM]

0.7644 was a great buy for USD! You should give yourself more credit, it was pretty close to the top. I'm a professional currency trader and I can tell you it's very hard to time the top of a rally, especially a bear market rally. I also loaded up on USD around then as my partner and I are holidaying in California this September. That does not mean I don't think we could rally back up to there again; it was just an odds calculation. There are no certainties in this game and the only kind of 'mastery' you need is mastery of process and odds analysis.

HUGE difference, ENORMOUS difference...

Theoretically annual purchase/sale of AUD - absolute sum of components Current Account Deficit/Surplus.

In AUD's case the daily turnover in the AUD is often more than the ANNUAL Current Account Position

vs Aust Stock Market at a fraction thereof.

Estimated less than 1% of daily turnover is for an end user in FX market and 99+% is speculative. From having witnessed it up close and personal for some decades that was what was seen. Go back to the 1980s and close to zero turnover from 11.15am to 11.29.59 am on ABS release day. From 11.30.00 to 11.30.30am $1-5bn. And then it would get busy.

End user - importer/exporter/tourist/migrant/asset purchase or sale

 

[cove]

Yes RAM I was in business from 1979 so as an importer and exporter I have seen a lot. I do credit my late mother for making our business invest in production tooling by telling me importers cause Australian jobs to go overseas.
With the world turning to computer and manufacturing automation it will become increasingly more difficult for full employment of everyone. I went on a Swiss manufacturing tour and there were almost zero production staff. Massive high tech production off robot machines is what I saw.
Maybe 0.7644 was ok but you always want to do better.

 

[JohnK]

With the world turning to computer and manufacturing automation it will become increasingly more difficult for full employment of everyone.

A challenge that seems to be ignored for the time being.

 

[amaroo]

A challenge that seems to be ignored for the time being.

Forget Uni - become a tradie

 

[drron]

A challenge that seems to be ignored for the time being.

Forget Uni - become a tradie

The really big question and as you say JohnK no one openly talking about it.
Amaroo there is an Aussie startup that is trying to perfect a robot bricklayer.The prototype works so now trying to get a commercial one up and running.Tradies are not immune.
Computer programs for financial advice already being used.Manufacturing jobs getting scarcer due to automation.

However apparently organisations such as the IMF and the US fed have discussed the problem and how to finance a living wage for those who in the future will not be able to get employment.Be prepared for ongoing money printing,helicopter money and low interest rates.At some stage it will all come crashing down.I hope that the can can be kicked down the road for some time yet.

 

[amaroo]

Amaroo there is an Aussie startup that is trying to perfect a robot bricklayer.The prototype works so now trying to get a commercial one up and running.Tradies are not immune.

Unions will kill that off LOL