What makes a flight full?

[Colesmore]

I'm sure we've all been hunting around at one stage or another and seen certain weekends or weeks off the scale in pricing to certain destinations (in Y or J) both domestically and internationally. Aside from the typical common leave periods, religious holidays, footy finals (my religious holidays) what have you seen that's surprised you to a certain destination-if you know the cause?

I'm an avid Formula 1 fan, and often looking at flights 10 - 11 months out to destinations and seeing what look like inflated prices (comparable to a week either side). Is it just me or are there a lot of F1 fans travelling the world? ( I believe statistically 230% of all Dutch people follow Max Verstappen around the world)

From a more local point of view it's interesting what's happening within 5-10 hrs flying time to either block out certain weeks as too expensive/hard to find accommodation, or conversely for exciting things to be involved in that I didn't know exist that so many people may travel for.

Thoughts?

 

[juddles]

If any single person tries to comprehend airline pricing, they will destroy their mind.

 

[Colesmore]

Well the mind destruction happened long before I found airlines, although they haven't helped. It's perhaps as or more observable with hotels at the destinations as well. What ever are all these conferences about anyway?

 

[Archipelago]

( I believe statistically 230% of all Dutch people follow Max Verstappen around the world)

Statistically, I think you may be correct there!

 

[mannej]

If there is a known event such as the F1, there is little incentive for the airline to offer deeply discounted fares. Unlikely the flights are anywhere near full currently but the airlines are confident they can sell the flights at a premium.

 

[Melburnian1]

Airlines also have access to historical data such as how flights sold - or did not - in particular weeks last and previous years.

One thing to look for is airlines that are lower profile but that have increased the frequency of flights in say the last year to a particular destination, or commenced a new route. These flights may take a while to 'get known' by the community (both here and overseas), travel agents and other resellers and hence may have relatively low load factors. This may lead an airline to sell such seats cheaply.

Examples include D7 in the low season ex AVV from tomorrow (two double daillies), PR's recent introduction of daillies ex MEL to MNL and vice versa, against just 3X week previously and 5J's commencement of #X weekly MEL - MNL.

Donghai Airlines has been highlighted by Mattg as having particularly low load factors (and poor yields). It operates DRW - SZX.

Malindo and Batik Air may be others to look at. How many Australians would know these airlines apart from loyal readers of AFF and similar websites?

BI (Royal Brunei) is another, only now operating from MEL to BWN and nonstop to LHR. It used to fly from numerous Oz cities including SYD, but no longer. Again, little known in Australia.

In contrast, PX would be poorly known in Oz but does not typically price fares cheaply as there is little competition on its routes.

 

[kelvedon]

( I believe statistically 230% of all Dutch people follow Max Verstappen around the world)

84.3% of statistics are made up !

 

[GoldCanyon340]

If any single person tries to comprehend airline pricing, they will destroy their mind.

I did this for seven years at a certain Australian airline. I'm a Collingwood member so your supposition about the mind is correct

 

[GoldCanyon340]

Airlines also have access to historical data such as how flights sold - or did not - in particular weeks last and previous years.

Also no shows. When QF operated a 747 on SYD-DPS I saw oversells of 100+ clear on the day of departure ex-DPS.