Western Sydney Airport (WSI) Discussion

[moa999]

And I suspect the JQ signage will be very much stored at Gate 18.

Is there any background to the somewhat weird numbering?
I assume it's Phase 2 of the expansion would begin to fill in 1-17.

 

[LionKing]

The Australian reported WSI is struggling to sign up new airlines to use them:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/western-sydney-airport-no-airlines-signed-despite-53bn-investment/news-story/47c0802b56f75ec5d8e38bc57a41320c

I doubt if there's many regular travel demands are present at WSI concerning most people who can afford time and money wise to travel are actually in Eastern Suburbs, Sutherland Shire, North Shore, Northern and Northern Beaches.

The Metro is delayed and when completed, it is also a Metro going nowhere where its end point at St Marys is simply not convenient to suburbs such as Parramatta.

There's also no announcement on orders of buses connecting WSI and we are only a year out.

So how can WSI attract airlines to sign up to be honest?

I suppose to make WSI succeed, NSW Government need to immediately purchase 100 - 150 new buses and introduce express from the following points to WSI at frequent and regular intervals:

• Central Station and University of Sydney
• Bondi Junction and UNSW
• Macquarie University, Eastwood and Carlingford
• Chatswood and North Sydney
• Northern Beaches and Manly
• Burwood and Strathfield
• Sutherland Shire and Hurstville

As well as Liverpool, Campbelltown and Parramatta.

This will ensure sufficient catchment of travellers to actually connect with WSI.

 

[HS-TQE]

I don't find that surprising, IMO.

Also, it doesn't help for WSI, that despite having assumed lower costs than SYD, the international LCCs or the South East Asian Hybrid Value Carriers are not in a rush to 'sign up' (either as an add-on to their existing SYD services or as a relocation), though I'd suspect all hybrid/budget carriers would not want to lose their SYD slots either.

Also, the fact that VA has no forthcoming announcements in regards to WSI (ignoring their current situation with their delayed additions to the fleet from Boeing), and the slim possibility that WSI may initially be a QF-group only airport domestically to start off with.

 

[moa999]

doubt if there's many regular travel demands are present at WSI concerning most people who can afford time and money wise to travel are actually in Eastern Suburbs, Sutherland Shire, North Shore, Northern and Northern Beaches.

They aren't the focus catchment for this airport.

Compare travel times from say Penrith and Blacktown..

 

[elanshin]

Id suspect there's multi things at play. For those that haven't broken into the SYD market, there's no rush or need to be with the launch. They're probably eyeing the situation if they did want the Sydney market, but seeing how it functions would be prudent.

Other airlines that "fit" WSI currently don't have the aircraft or capacity to expand.

I still believe its biggest immediate use would be air cargo. Over time as we see more expansion in the Indian space we'll probably see more from there fly to WSI. Maybe other like ZG when they get their refurb 787-9 from JAL might start something up (they've got to be eyeing JQs loads to Japan and want to provide a better option).

The majors probably won't run more than a couple of flights that are designed more as overnight connection flights. As for the other Value/LCC that currently operates SYD, there may still be room for moving if the price is right and demand increases.

 

[moa999]

While a lot of people assume this aircraft should be LCC focussed I don't necessarily see that being the case.

There is no suggestion this is a cheap build (like MEL T4 or the original KUL LCCT) and while there is afaik a subsidy fund for the airlines, the passenger security charges will still be there and I assume similar to SYD.

And we've seen with Avalon v Melbourne and Gold Coast v Brisbane that just having cheaper facilities doesn't necessarily attract airlines.

 

[AuSammy]

Id suspect there's multi things at play. For those that haven't broken into the SYD market, there's no rush or need to be with the launch. They're probably eyeing the situation if they did want the Sydney market, but seeing how it functions would be prudent.

Other airlines that "fit" WSI currently don't have the aircraft or capacity to expand.

I still believe its biggest immediate use would be air cargo. Over time as we see more expansion in the Indian space we'll probably see more from there fly to WSI. Maybe other like ZG when they get their refurb 787-9 from JAL might start something up (they've got to be eyeing JQs loads to Japan and want to provide a better option).

The majors probably won't run more than a couple of flights that are designed more as overnight connection flights. As for the other Value/LCC that currently operates SYD, there may still be room for moving if the price is right and demand increases.

Freight first.

Jetstar testing the waters

When other carriers can't expand due to slot constraints and see all the start up glitches are cleaned up at WSI and running smoothly the trickle will start that raise the interest of others.

Weather events will result in some flights to divert to WSI instead of returning to BNE / MEL / CBR and experience will be gained that it's a not so bad place to land.

 

[dairyfloss]

The Australian reported WSI is struggling to sign up new airlines to use them:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/western-sydney-airport-no-airlines-signed-despite-53bn-investment/news-story/47c0802b56f75ec5d8e38bc57a41320c

I doubt if there's many regular travel demands are present at WSI concerning most people who can afford time and money wise to travel are actually in Eastern Suburbs, Sutherland Shire, North Shore, Northern and Northern Beaches.

The Metro is delayed and when completed, it is also a Metro going nowhere where its end point at St Marys is simply not convenient to suburbs such as Parramatta.

There's also no announcement on orders of buses connecting WSI and we are only a year out.

So how can WSI attract airlines to sign up to be honest?

I suppose to make WSI succeed, NSW Government need to immediately purchase 100 - 150 new buses and introduce express from the following points to WSI at frequent and regular intervals:

• Central Station and University of Sydney
• Bondi Junction and UNSW
• Macquarie University, Eastwood and Carlingford
• Chatswood and North Sydney
• Northern Beaches and Manly
• Burwood and Strathfield
• Sutherland Shire and Hurstville

As well as Liverpool, Campbelltown and Parramatta.

This will ensure sufficient catchment of travellers to actually connect with WSI.

I don't know how many folks have been able to get behind the paywall and have read of the article from the Oz, but it is pretty damning.

I knew that outside of the construction itself, progress was slow, but it’s actually worse than I thought – for the most part (or whole part, even), only Letters of Intent or expressions of interest are in play at this stage. There’s also speculation that when SIA say they will (or are interested in) flying from WSI, it may actually mean Scoot rather than SQ mainline.

A fair bit of time to go until WSI is ready to log on, I suppose, but again... quite surprised with just how much more there still is to be agreed and done.

 

[moa999]

Ignoring aircraft type, from SYD SQ have 4 flight to SIN, and TR 2, from MEL it's 5/2.

The difference is the late night SQ218 (2335 departure getting into SIN 0530).
There is a similar late night flight from BNE SQ246 (2350-0545) where it's SQ 4 TR 0.
So I wouldn't be surprised to see SQ try and replicate this at WSI.

 

[Aeryn]

it may actually mean Scoot rather than SQ mainline.

Makes sense, Im surprised anyone would thing that any full service airlines would head out there unless receiving government incentives to do so; Im sure Qantas and Virgin have their hands out for incentives to fly there.

WSI will be for freight and LCCs for a long time; airlines wont want to set up business and first class lounges at WSI unless the volume of flights justifies the costs, so FFs will continue to preference SYD and it become self fulfilling prophecy.

Maybe those who fly LCCs dont care about lounges and are driven solely by price, so they may not care that the commute from WSI to city is not direct and 4 times as long than from SYD (two hours on public transport according to the article vs 20 mins from SYD).

Although that article notes "Airports need three things to thrive: fast connecting transport, interconnectivity with other flights and – failing those two options or possibly in addition – sufficiently low costs to entice airlines to commitment. WSI risks having none."

Article also notes:

"its build cost has doubled from first forecast and, somewhat strangely, the government’s valuation of WSI differs by a factor of two from the airport’s own $2bn valuation."

"WSI’s lack of connectivity is why airlines aren’t banging down the door to sign up, say multiple airline sources who declined to be named for fear of angering the government."

"WSI would never have been suitable for Rex. A vast majority of our passengers were travelling to the city for business or medical appointments, or social activities; and a significant per cent of all passengers were flying on to other destinations both international and domestic. Without access to those flights, WSI doesn’t really work for them.”

"[Transport]Options include a 62km partly tolled road journey to the CBD or a 50km tolled road journey to Sydney Airport – relevant because roughly 15 per cent of international passengers have connecting flights. The Commonwealth and NSW state governments have committed $11bn to build the Sydney Metro–Western Sydney Airport rail line, but the opening has now been pushed back a year to 2027. When it does open, the estimated 20-minute train service will take passengers only 23km due north to St Marys Station, where they will need to change trains and then face a one-hour trip southeast to reach the CBD."

"Qantas Group has agreed to fly select QantasLink and Jetstar domestic flights from WSI, but is yet to work out routes and frequency. Qantas Group chief financial officer Rob Marcolina says whatever flights the group puts on will be in addition to rather than instead of flights from SYD."

Interestingly re freight

"Much has been made of WSI’s freight potential, particularly as it has no curfew. At a recent press conference with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Hickey declared there would be a 30 per cent increase in airfreight capacity from the minute the airport opens.

But that doesn’t mean a massive shift to WSI.

As it stands, there are 15 flights per day that fly into SYD outside of the curfew – meaning they land and take off during the 11pm to 6am period. Those flights will be forced under the Sydney Airport Curfew Act 1995 (the Curfew Act) to shift to WSI once it opens next year.

Those same laws will also apply to the three passenger shoulder flights QF2, BA15, and SQ221 that land into Sydney from London between 5-6am, although it’s likely the airlines will tweak their schedules from the UK to avoid sending their business-heavy flights to WSI.

But beyond those freight flights that will be forced to move, shifting the bulk of airfreight to WSI is not so simple as just making a directive, because 80 per cent of all airfreight is transported in the belly of passenger aircraft.

And like the passenger market, airfreight frequently transits through SYD to other destinations and thus shares similar connectivity issues.

According to the NSW government’s Delivering Freight Reform Policy paper published just over a month ago, SYD accounts for more than half of the country’s international airfreight and a third of the domestic market.

Most of that freight is simply not going to move to WSI unless the bulk of passenger flights move there too."

In addition to Virgin not having agreed to operate any flights from WSI, DHL one of the worlds largest freight operators has also not committed to flying to WSI.

 

[AuSammy]

Slightly off topic but AVV survives with 7 flights a day and a much smaller catchment area.

 

[moa999]

but AVV survives

It also doesn't have a $5+bn terminal or $10+bn railway. There is rightly some expectation of expensive assets being used.

 

[HS-TQE]

I think the recent article just goes to show that WSI may not be the instant goldmine to start off with. Whilst QF Group may be able tp absorb the costs of setting up 'high risk' hubs at WSI, which may or may not pay off for the QF group. This business case may potentially not stack up for VA setting up a minor operation at WSI with only a few flights per day, as it may be cheaper for VA to remain consolidated to SYD and in Bain's case to keep the share price above $3.00 as 40% owners of VA in the short term by keeping CapEx to a minimum.

This of course will ignore any aviation funding incentives that WSI, the NSW Government and/or the Federal Government may potentially offer to VA in the future to draw them out of their pragmatic approach to WSI.

 

[jase05]

I think the recent article just goes to show that WSI may not be the instant goldmine to start off with

I don’t think that was ever the real plan.
Just getting the majority of freight out of the dump that is SYD is just fine for me currently.

 

[AuSammy]

It also doesn't have a $5+bn terminal or $10+bn railway. There is rightly some expectation of expensive assets being used.

One could have probably drawn the same analogy for MEL way back when, big new shiny airport 3 terminal airport, six lane Tulla highway that had very little traffic

On a visit to Melbourne by car (couldn't afford flights) in about 1971 driving out from the city I was in awe of this big highway and only saw 2-3 cars in the whole trip to the airport.

 

[Aeryn]

Just getting the majority of freight out of the dump that is SYD is just fine for me currently.

But thats just it, the majority of freight comes in on passenger aircraft so unless the majority of passengers flights are at WSI its not going to be quite the boon some think.

Freight only flights sure; but given DHL hasnt opted in does that just leave the QF Aus Post flights?

 

[moa999]

DHL spent $140m for land adjacent to Badgerys Creek and are currently planning a massive warehouse

DHL Unveils $180m Logistics Precinct at Badgerys Creek

DHL proposes four new logistics warehouses at Badgerys Creek, now on exhibition until 19 May as part of the Aerotropolis precinct.

urbandigest.com.au

They may not move Day 1.. but I think you can see where the future is.

There are quite a few other freight operators into SYD.

16Right - Cargo

16right.com

Toll has a new facility at Kemp's Creek.

 

[jase05]

Freight only flights sure; but given DHL hasnt opted in does that just lea

DHL will get there eventually.
Toll and FedEx will be out there from the start.
APG are the ones who will benefit the most obviously as operations at SYD severely hamper the business

 

[markis10]

But thats just it, the majority of freight comes in on passenger aircraft so unless the majority of passengers flights are at WSI its not going to be quite the boon some think.

The majority of freight USED to come on passenger aircraft, that’s been rapidly changing since COVID and changes in ecommerce. In many ways the Sydney curfew forces this to happen, given the very low capacity aircraft used during curfew hours with limited destinations meaning morning flights pickup the slack. The three Amazon centres at WSI will come into play allowing orders late into the evening and still deliver next day, they cannot do that now, there will also be better connectivity for interstate transfer of inbound airfreight arriving in the afternoons that often result in a days delay at SYD.
One dedicated A330 freighter takes six times the load a BAE146 carries, (or 15-20x a pax A320), along with the A321P2F both are forced to ply routes away from Syd overnight.