Melburnian1
Veteran Member
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2013
- Posts
- 25,483
BITRE has just made its final monthly domestic airline passenger statistics available (June 2015):
http://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/Domestic_aviation_ June_2015.pdf
While stagnant or slightly declining passenger numbers may be good or excellent for airline profits (QF has swung from a huge loss to a respectable profit, and VA has reduced its overall losses although its overall domestic flights are now profitable - notwithstanding that the abolition of the carbon tax, the huge drop in the price of aviation turbine fuel and more moderate or negative seat capacity growth are also factors for both airlines, plus staff sackings in QF's case are all important factors), the hotel and restaurant sectors, particularly in country Australia want growing numbers of visitors not stagnation or decline.
The figures are largely self explanatory but the small decline (of less than one per cent) in the financial year to June 2015 (and also in June 2015) is worse if one takes into account annual population growth of roughly 1.8 per cent.
As expected, some of the mining routes in Queensland and Western Australia show large drops (such as BNE - ISA) but the relatively poor performance of the BNE and MEL to PER as well as (annually, but not in June 2015 as a standalone month) CBR and PER to SYD routes is noticeable. The figures illustrate while QF has announced capacity cuts across the Nullabor/ Great Australian Bight (and VA may be doing the same - just not making a public spectacle announcing it.)
The BNE and MEL to CNS routes are performing well with growth well in excess of Australia's annual rise in population. These routes will be influenced by trends in international visitor numbers (up about 6.5 per cent annually if I recall) as well as domestic tourism and 'visiting friends and relatives' traffic.
MEL to HTI is another touristy route performing well.
Just how the steep decline in the $A affects such routes will be interesting. Although there is always a lag, eventually one surmises that (very selectively) Australians' appetite for international travel may decline, at least to the USA where our currency has performed the worst. Of course some holidaymakers may substitute a trip to southeast Asia instead of a more expensive USA trip because our dollar still purchases reasonable value in much of Asia.
The annual growth in OOL - MEL passenger numbers of about double growth in BNE - MEL numbers (although not the case in the standalone June 2015 month) is interesting and lends weight to AFFer JohnK's answer to my question of some months ago as to whether OOL (at least for southside Brisbane residents, such as if one lives around Beenleigh) is a possible substitute provided flight times, fares and the aircraft used are similar. While OOL has its ups and downs, one might expect that BNE's Dutch management might regard many passengers using OOL as "theirs" and hence "stolen."
In percentage terms, MEL - HBA is performing much better than MEL - LST.
Gradually in monthly passenger numbers, MEL is catching up to SYD and may overtake it as Australia's busiest domestic passenger airport (by passenger numbers - perhaps not by RPT flight numbers) in a small number of years. It is impossible to say exactly when this might occur but 'the trend is your friend.'
http://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/Domestic_aviation_ June_2015.pdf
While stagnant or slightly declining passenger numbers may be good or excellent for airline profits (QF has swung from a huge loss to a respectable profit, and VA has reduced its overall losses although its overall domestic flights are now profitable - notwithstanding that the abolition of the carbon tax, the huge drop in the price of aviation turbine fuel and more moderate or negative seat capacity growth are also factors for both airlines, plus staff sackings in QF's case are all important factors), the hotel and restaurant sectors, particularly in country Australia want growing numbers of visitors not stagnation or decline.
The figures are largely self explanatory but the small decline (of less than one per cent) in the financial year to June 2015 (and also in June 2015) is worse if one takes into account annual population growth of roughly 1.8 per cent.
As expected, some of the mining routes in Queensland and Western Australia show large drops (such as BNE - ISA) but the relatively poor performance of the BNE and MEL to PER as well as (annually, but not in June 2015 as a standalone month) CBR and PER to SYD routes is noticeable. The figures illustrate while QF has announced capacity cuts across the Nullabor/ Great Australian Bight (and VA may be doing the same - just not making a public spectacle announcing it.)
The BNE and MEL to CNS routes are performing well with growth well in excess of Australia's annual rise in population. These routes will be influenced by trends in international visitor numbers (up about 6.5 per cent annually if I recall) as well as domestic tourism and 'visiting friends and relatives' traffic.
MEL to HTI is another touristy route performing well.
Just how the steep decline in the $A affects such routes will be interesting. Although there is always a lag, eventually one surmises that (very selectively) Australians' appetite for international travel may decline, at least to the USA where our currency has performed the worst. Of course some holidaymakers may substitute a trip to southeast Asia instead of a more expensive USA trip because our dollar still purchases reasonable value in much of Asia.
The annual growth in OOL - MEL passenger numbers of about double growth in BNE - MEL numbers (although not the case in the standalone June 2015 month) is interesting and lends weight to AFFer JohnK's answer to my question of some months ago as to whether OOL (at least for southside Brisbane residents, such as if one lives around Beenleigh) is a possible substitute provided flight times, fares and the aircraft used are similar. While OOL has its ups and downs, one might expect that BNE's Dutch management might regard many passengers using OOL as "theirs" and hence "stolen."
In percentage terms, MEL - HBA is performing much better than MEL - LST.
Gradually in monthly passenger numbers, MEL is catching up to SYD and may overtake it as Australia's busiest domestic passenger airport (by passenger numbers - perhaps not by RPT flight numbers) in a small number of years. It is impossible to say exactly when this might occur but 'the trend is your friend.'
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