VS flight upgrades

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n7of9

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Joined
May 10, 2012
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Virgin
Platinum
how easy/likely are VS flight upgrades using points?

they advertise 55,000 points SYD-LHR-SYD to upgrade from PE (W,S class) to Upper Class J 'subject to availability'
Virgin Atlantic Airways - Popup

is the 'availability' of the kind where you pay max $ for the PE flights and don't find out until the day before whether your upgrade is successful?

looking at May 2014:
PE (S) = $3,700
PE (W) = $6,700
Upper (J)= ~$10,000

would i be right in thinking that paying $3,700, my chances of a points upgrade to J would be buckleys to none?
 
On my recent VS SYD-HKG flights Upper Class had plenty of seats.

Note that the cheapest PE classes can't be upgraded.
 
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