Virgin Australia to be sold to Bain Capital

jakeseven7

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At the end of the day, the only way these unsecured bondholders have any chance of being successful is to out bid Bain, which you would think is highly unlikely. Their court action really was around trying to copy the other kids homework so to speak so they could get a leg up, and rightfully so the court declined.

What would be really interesting to learn from the Bain 'homework' is how long they projected a domestic shut down for....
 

Melburnian1

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What would be really interesting to learn from the Bain 'homework' is how long they projected a domestic shut down for....

No doubt Bain has deep pockets, but I too wondered this.

The suggestion/implication by the Queensland Premier that five million plus in Sydney might be 'locked out' of the Sunshine State was something that none of us would have predicted three weeks ago. Not only would Sydney to Melbourne (and MEL - BNE) routes be crimped: you could then add SYD - BNE. These three total a fairly high percentage of the total number of annual air journeys made domestically. They are #1, #2 and #3 in the rankings.

Could Bain declare force majeure given that if anything as we stand today, the COVID-19 restrictions looks like becoming more stringent than when it signed the deal?
 

Rembrandt

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The suggestion/implication by the Queensland Premier that five million plus in Sydney might be 'locked out' of the Sunshine State was something that none of us would have predicted three weeks ago. Not only would Sydney to Melbourne (and MEL - BNE) routes be crimped: you could then add SYD - BNE. These three total a fairly high percentage of the total number of annual air journeys made domestically. They are #1, #2 and #3 in the rankings.

It's going to be very difficult for airlines and the domestic tourism industry if Vic (6.4 million, Melb 5.08) and Sydney 5.3 million cannot visit other states. NSW and Vic make up roughly 60% of the national population.

I hear people say letting Kiwis in will help, which is true. But their population is the same as Queensland 4.6 million, which is less than half of the population of Sydney and Melbourne combined. Furthermore, do they have the money to come over here at the moment? Economically the stage 4 restrictions really hurt, even though it has appeared to eliminate the virus.
 

jakeseven7

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Looking less likely that "Jayne" will be getting involved in VAH. She was just appointed a board director of Hawaiian Airlines


Collective sigh of relief from the old executive guard at VA1....

Still, I'm sure Bain will come in with the broom anyway, but at least PS appears safe.
 

jakeseven7

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And now the final surviving link of the golden triangle is now shut (again) from Saturday with QLD closing border to all Sydneysiders and with that any chance of VA (or QF for that matter) making any meaningful money for a long time....
 

Bell21

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And now the final surviving link of the golden triangle is now shut (again) from Saturday with QLD closing border to all Sydneysiders and with that any chance of VA (or QF for that matter) making any meaningful money for a long time....
Extraordinary times especially for airlines!
 

Melburnian1

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And now the final surviving link of the golden triangle is now shut (again) from Saturday with QLD closing border to all Sydneysiders and with that any chance of VA (or QF for that matter) making any meaningful money for a long time....

Earlier, I updated the QF and VA delays/cancellations thread.

At the time - four hours ago - QFd had cancelled a SYD - BNE (possibly in response) and several other flights elsewhere such as SYD to ADL and MEL tomorrow, with VAd also cancelling its sole SYD - BNE tomorrow.

If QF's target was to 'lose $40 million per week by the end of June 2020', the lack of flying on the golden triangle would suggest a fair chance of these losses having blown out again.

Bain's initial pre-creditors' meeting capital must be eroding. Perhaps not as fast in raw monetary terms, but as a percentage...
 

jakeseven7

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Bain's initial pre-creditors' meeting capital must be eroding. Perhaps not as fast in raw monetary terms, but as a percentage...

And so are their future sales forecasts for VA2, if they go ahead and complete the purchase. I'm sure they didn't build in hare trigger border closings and openings happening ongoing (or just remaining closed) until there is a vaccine....
 
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jakeseven7

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As rumoured earlier it is now confirmed that a part of their massive downsizing plans, Bain controlled VA2 will be shuttering their sprawling ‘Village’ and moving into shared occupancy in an office building in the city.

VIRGIN AUSTRALIA TO SHUT BOWEN HILLS VILLAGE, DOWNSIZE TO SOUTHBANK HEADQUARTERS


 

TheRealTMA

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As rumoured earlier it is now confirmed that a part of their massive downsizing plans, Bain controlled VA2 will be shuttering their sprawling ‘Village’ and moving into shared occupancy in an office building in the city.

VIRGIN AUSTRALIA TO SHUT BOWEN HILLS VILLAGE, DOWNSIZE TO SOUTHBANK HEADQUARTERS


Unable to read due to Murdock paywall. Any other reports?
 

serfty

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As rumoured earlier it is now confirmed that a part of their massive downsizing plans, Bain controlled VA2 will be shuttering their sprawling ‘Village’ and moving into shared occupancy in an office building in the city.

VIRGIN AUSTRALIA TO SHUT BOWEN HILLS VILLAGE, DOWNSIZE TO SOUTHBANK HEADQUARTERS
...
It will instead occupy five floors at South Bank’s Southpoint tower complex, which houses the global headquarters of Flight Centre and the Emporium Hotel.
...
“We will end our Bowen Hills lease in September and relocate all Brisbane-based team members to the Southpoint building at South Bank where the group will occupy five floors of the building.”
 

jb747

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40% of domestic passengers were related to international flights. Gone.

Business flying. About 20%. Gone at the moment, but probably massively reduced long term.

Melbourne-Brisbane-Sydney would probably represented something in the order of 60% of all pre CV flying. Basically gone too.

None of the other potential routes could possibly keep QF or Virgin going.

Future...TBA, but I don’t see it including any of the current players.
 

Bundy Bear

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40% of domestic passengers were related to international flights. Gone.

Business flying. About 20%. Gone at the moment, but probably massively reduced long term.

Melbourne-Brisbane-Sydney would probably represented something in the order of 60% of all pre CV flying. Basically gone too.

None of the other potential routes could possibly keep QF or Virgin going.

Future...TBA, but I don’t see it including any of the current players.

I would expect Bain to keep going, past sales figures are going to be use going forward.
 

Carrots

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jakeseven7

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jakeseven7

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40% of domestic passengers were related to international flights. Gone.

Business flying. About 20%. Gone at the moment, but probably massively reduced long term.

Melbourne-Brisbane-Sydney would probably represented something in the order of 60% of all pre CV flying. Basically gone too.

None of the other potential routes could possibly keep QF or Virgin going.

Future...TBA, but I don’t see it including any of the current players.

I'm now increasingly pessimistic given the border open / shut game going on domestically as a result of community spread now in Sydney and Brisbane.

Suspect VA2 will fall over completely and QF will either be partially or completely re-nationalised, in line with other government actions around the world to preserve their flag carriers.

The only thing which would stop this would be significant Federal Government intervention to the whole industry which is going to have to be BIG.
 

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