Very light loads in & out of CBR lately

[Mattg]

I've noticed that all of my flights to & from Canberra recently have had very light loads, especially on flights during the week (Tuesday - Thursday in particular).

For example, my MEL - CBR flight this afternoon on a 737-800 had less than 2 dozen passengers. A few weeks ago another 738 flight from MEL had just 30 or so passengers. And last week I flew SYD-CBR on Wednesday and the Q400 would have been ~30% full. (I realise that parliament isn't sitting this week but it was last week.)

With (on average) hourly or better frequencies on CBR-SYD and CBR-MEL it makes me wonder whether Qantas are actually making any money on these routes... Is this another case of the 65% line in the sand coming into play at the expense of profits?

 

[harvyk]

No doubt this is part of the reason why we're now seeing 717's on the CBR routes...

 

[yohy?!]

dont think its out of the ordinary tbh - i have been on very lighted loaded flights before and understood the main reason they operated the flight was to get the plane to another port where it was needed for the next day (eg SYD or MEL) - getting any pax on was a bonus.

think its likely just the way that the CBR market operates, not necessarily suicidal capacity dumping

 

[Himeno]

No doubt this is part of the reason why we're now seeing 717's on the CBR routes...

They put the 717s on CBR routes because they got rid of the 734s.

The problem with CBR is that the population is mostly students and public servants (and there have been public servant cuts recently with more likely to come). Flights in/out of CBR will be busy at the start and end of school holidays and when the public servants who live interstate travel to/from work (in Sun night/Mon morn, out Fri night, Sat morn). Outside of those times, CBR flights are almost always lightly loaded.

 

[Melburnian1]

Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics informs us that in January 2014 - which being school holidays and a period when the public service is quiet, therefore a dramatically different time of the year for all modes in and out of CBR compared with mid to late March - the number of total passengers travelling between CBR and MEL dropped 1.3 per cent to 67,200 compared to January 2013. This is about 1200 a day each way.

On the CBR - SYD air route, passenger numbers dropped 4.8 per cent to 56,300. This equals roughly 28,000 each way or fewer than 1000 a day in each direction.

The CBR - SYD and to a lesser extent the CBR - MEL routes suffer from competition from private cars, rail and bus. NSWTrainLink has restored the third daily train between SYD and CBR and while hardly fast, some tourists use it. Similarly Murrays and to a much lesser extent Greyhound offer frequent coaches. While these surface modes might only have an average of 20 to 50 passengers a train or coach, if there are 15 surface trips a day (not counting private cars) then it soon means the equivalent of two or three B738s at 100 per cent load capacity each way. It takes the 'cream' off the airline's loadings, even if these passengers would not be prepared to pay a high fare were they to swap modes and travel by air.

One other factor can be important. When Federal Parliament is on, lobbyists are attracted to the 'House on the Hill' like gluttons to AFF member Pushka's cruises.

Similarly, Federal MPs and Senators have for years now increasingly arrived in the national capital on Sunday afternoons but the poor darlings are sometimes unable to depart their favourite place on Thursday evenings after Parliament as some may have "Parliamentary business" on the Friday morning.

My record low number of passengers was 11 northbound on the sadly now departed AN about 20 years ago. Some things obviously do not change with successor QF's loadings above.

Some QF flights ex or to MEL terminate or originate in SYD so one can go the long way (normally at a higher fare). As the above notes, this seems to be more for airline operating convenience than passenger demand.

Because of the QF and VA duopoly, air fares on the CBR routes tend to be very high when one considers their relative shortness. This is a disincentive for the budget end of teh market to use air and contrasts with far higher volume routes such as MEL - SYD where during slacker periods of the week such as Tuesdays and Wednesdays, one can often obtain a fairly cheap airfare provided a booking is made a couple of weeks in advance, though I have observed weeks when low fares are available much closer to departure dates.

 

[OzEire]

All of the cuts to the Commonwealth Government departments has probably hit the travel budget...

...but don't worry, in a few weeks the temperature will drop and the fog will ensure that the late-morning flights are choccas !

OzE

 

[Cool Cat Phil]

I've noticed that all of my flights to & from Canberra recently have had very light loads, especially on flights during the week (Tuesday - Thursday in particular).

For example, my MEL - CBR flight this afternoon on a 737-800 had less than 2 dozen passengers. A few weeks ago another 738 flight from MEL had just 30 or so passengers. And last week I flew SYD-CBR on Wednesday and the Q400 would have been ~30% full. (I realise that parliament isn't sitting this week but it was last week.)

With (on average) hourly or better frequencies on CBR-SYD and CBR-MEL it makes me wonder whether Qantas are actually making any money on these routes... Is this another case of the 65% line in the sand coming into play at the expense of profits?

Interesting Observation . Maybe Clive Palmer has set up his own Airline & scooting people around on behalf of the commonwealth Government.

 

[chrisishere]

I'd fly back to MEL more often but sometimes the cost of taking that 40m flight is just outrageous. Shame though, when it's $169 one way and leading up to the flight a few hundred and only a dozen seats sold? Still have to give it a miss at that price.

 

[Mattg]

I'd fly back to MEL more often but sometimes the cost of taking that 40m flight is just outrageous. Shame though, when it's $169 one way and leading up to the flight a few hundred and only a dozen seats sold? Still have to give it a miss at that price.

I'd have to agree with you there. The price of airfares out of Canberra is too expensive and would put off a lot of people, myself included sometimes. I would fly to Sydney more regularly if it wasn't $149 one way. With loads the way they are, the high fares seem counterproductive. (I'm not talking about weeks when parliament sits or school holidays.)

 

[lovestotravel]

Flights are packed during Parliament sitting weeks and that's all that matters!

MEL-CBR-MEL flights are more expensive than MEL-SYD-MEL

$115 during sales, the old $99/$109 sale fares are no longer

$169 is the new normal price

It's about frequency and not cutting flights like VA have done on this route for years. QF has 11 flights per weekday, with the 4pm or later flights VERY busy

The 717's will help cut costs on this route with 2 flights per day usually being the 717 and 1 flight per day being the DH-8.....

Business people want reliability and frequency of flights, something which VA can't do on this route

 

[ketsuzei]

I like the 717 a lot. Huge improvement on the 737..

I've been booking (predominantly CBR<>SYD) JASAs to connect to international flights, I'm often one of two or three in J, and the flight lasts about half an hour. Not really rational, but I still like it.

I could also pay about the same in cash to fly Y, but save the points.

I'll be taking Murray's once the final JASAs are gone.

 

[dajop]

Also, although not sure what time your flight was, I guess if it was MEL-CBR mid afternoon, may not be very full, but they probably need the plane in CBR to come back with a full plane of day trippers to CBR on a late afternoon flight.

 

[Mattg]

I like the 717 a lot. Huge improvement on the 737..

I've been booking (predominantly CBR<>SYD) JASAs to connect to international flights, I'm often one of two or three in J, and the flight lasts about half an hour. Not really rational, but I still like it.

I could also pay about the same in cash to fly Y, but save the points.

I'll be taking Murray's once the final JASAs are gone.

Interesting.. I should point out that on my flight yesterday J was empty except for a couple of paxing pilots, and on the other one a few weeks ago there was only one person in J.

 

[Simo]

IMHO

Everytime I have done a trip to CBR it has always been very full.

Mind you always been either a Friday or Sunday departure.

 

[hdfb]

I'm a frequent traveller to and from Melbourne on Friday and Sunday nights, getting a weekend away in Melbourne. These flights are usually packed. Many people have already given the reasons why loads are light at certain times, the airline needs the plane in airport to cart people back.

The duopoly is a bit anti-competitive though, as someone has said, the base fare on QF is now $169 to MEL and $149 to SYD. I'm glad I snagged some of the $105 one way sale fares to MEL for the rest of the year.

In the 15 months I have been in CBR, I have noticed the base fare for CBR-MEL has gone up like this. $145 => $149 => $155 => $165 => $169

Don't fly VA much but am quite sure their base fares have increased commensurately.

If Tiger flew the MEL-CBR route again, I would fly them. There, I said it.

 

[harvyk]

Half the reason why CBR is so expensive to fly from is because I do believe we have some of the highest airport fees in the country.

 

[drross]

I'm a frequent traveller to and from Melbourne on Friday and Sunday nights, getting a weekend away in Melbourne. These flights are usually packed. Many people have already given the reasons why loads are light at certain times, the airline needs the plane in airport to cart people back.

The duopoly is a bit anti-competitive though, as someone has said, the base fare on QF is now $169 to MEL and $149 to SYD. I'm glad I snagged some of the $105 one way sale fares to MEL for the rest of the year.

In the 15 months I have been in CBR, I have noticed the base fare for CBR-MEL has gone up like this. $145 => $149 => $155 => $165 => $169

Don't fly VA much but am quite sure their base fares have increased commensurately.

If Tiger flew the MEL-CBR route again, I would fly them. There, I said it.

Tiger. Really?

 

[harvyk]

Tiger. Really?

I suppose if you had no real need to be in any one place at any specific time (or day), and you didn't mind being treated as self loading freight, then Tiger is certainly an option.

 

[hdfb]

It's a 55 minute flight at the worst of times and a 38 minute flight at the best of times. If the base TT fare was $99.95 and discounted fares even cheaper than that, I'd slum it up.

 

[ketsuzei]

Last time I slummed it on Tiger from Canberra to Melbourne my family wasted around 12 hours of Christmas Eve.