Stopping / Slowing the Spread of COVID-19 - Flattening The Curve

[qaz]

Recommended reading:

• Covid-19, your community, and you — a data science perspective · fast.ai

  www.fast.ai

• 

  Cancel Everything

  Social distancing is the only way to stop the coronavirus. We must start immediately.

  www.theatlantic.com

• Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

• What low risk individuals do right now will determine the scale and time-course of the epidemic.

Low-risk individuals are a majority & protective measures for this group can be critical for public health.​

• International SOS: 2019-nCoV (previous post)

This is a rapidly evolving situation. There are outbreaks of COVID-19 in several countries. International SOS is monitoring closely and updating this website as more information becomes available.​

​

Interesting developments:

• Due to ongoing concerns posed by coronavirus (COVID-19), Harvard College students have been asked to move out of their Houses and First-Year Dorms by Sunday, March 15 in an effort to de-densify our community.
• We will begin transitioning to virtual instruction for graduate and undergraduate classes. Our goal is to have this transition complete by Monday, March 23, which is the first day of scheduled classes following Spring Recess. Students who need to remain on campus will also receive instruction remotely and must prepare for severely limited on-campus activities and interactions. We are transitioning over the course of the next few days to non-essential gatherings of no more than 25 people.

• https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237205733122265089

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The Italians were way too slow to understand that they had covid 19 spreading and even slower to act once they did.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Thanks Qaz the first article is an excellent one.

It is written with a USA perspective and it drives home the huge damage that a Trump led government in the USA may now be fanning with its failure to understand what needs to be done. Italy Mark2 is in plane sight with its already low testing tate and failures in its testing practices. Locally some of its lower level governments are acting as they understand what Trump does not.

 

[Denali]

This happened (and since reversed)

These are health public service posters to stop the spread but ordered by the Justice Department to be removed.

 

[burmans]

It is written with a USA perspective and it drives home the huge damage that a Trump led government in the USA may now be fanning with its failure to understand what needs to be done.

Would suggest its more than that, there is a pattern of denial here, in order to address any problem in society the first step is always to admit there is one and Trump has a history of failure in this regards. If you wont admit there is a problem you never even get on to step 2 of doing something about it.

 

[moa999]

Believing social media posts about alcohol has caused deaths in Iran

At least 44 dead from drinking toxic alcohol in Iran after coronavirus cure rumor

A false rumor has circulated throughout Iran that alcohol can prevent the coronavirus. More than 40 have died and hundreds have been hospitalized.

amp.usatoday.com

 

[juddles]

The Italians were way too slow to understand that they had covid 19 spreading and even slower to act once they did.

Like almost all countries. Even here in Australia people still talk about "containment".

 

[qaz]

edit - STOP PRESS: WHO declares COVID-19 as pandemic


OP updated:

• Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

• What low risk individuals do right now will determine the scale and time-course of the epidemic.

Low-risk individuals are a majority & protective measures for this group can be critical for public health.​

• International SOS: 2019-nCoV (previous post)

This is a rapidly evolving situation. There are outbreaks of COVID-19 in several countries. International SOS is monitoring closely and updating this website as more information becomes available.​

​

other COVID-19 tracker/dashboard reports:

• Coronavirus COVID-19 updates: dashboard and report
• Covid 2019 tracker
• Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

The Italians were way too slow to understand that they had covid 19 spreading and even slower to act once they did.

perhaps, but not necessarily:

• From confidence to quarantine: how coronavirus swept Italy
• Italy’s Politicians Are Making the Coronavirus Crisis Worse

elsewhere:

• South Korea’s coronavirus infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns
• Inside China’s All-Out War on the Coronavirus

Thanks Qaz the first article is an excellent one.

It is written with a USA perspective and it drives home the huge damage that a Trump led government in the USA may now be fanning with its failure to understand what needs to be done. Italy Mark2 is in plane sight with its already low testing tate and failures in its testing practices. Locally some of its lower level governments are acting as they understand what Trump does not.

you're welcome, though the author is an Australian whom I know, which I posted more for its data analytics rather than commentary on the situation in the USA, whereby possibly slowly if not surely, the response is now hopefully improving from

• How the Biogen leadership conference in Boston spread the coronavirus - The Boston Globe

however:

• Dr. Redd of the CDC just said that 1784 people have been tested by CDC for the coronavirus.

On March 8, the CDC number was 1707.​

That means CDC has tested 77 people in the last 72 hours or so.​

• https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237160638780186627

Like almost all countries. Even here in Australia people still talk about "containment".

sidebar:

• Ban the Melbourne Grand Prix - don't bring Coronavirus to Melbourne!

 

[moa999]

The lack of testing in Japan is apparent given they had relatively early outbreaks.

Yet they haven't seemingly had the same overwhelmed hospitals and deaths as Italy.

Is that cultural? (Eg. Italy's food sharing or handmade pasta) or Luck?

 

[Denali]

At this stage they are not going to cancel the Sydney Royal Easter Show.

 

[moa999]

this stage they are not going to cancel the Sydney Royal Easter Show.

Fair enough. Still some time before that event, and it's mostly outdoors.

Plenty of sporting events before this with NRL starting this week and AFL next.

Personally I'd be more concerned about indoor places that have high turnover of different people on the same day - cinemas, food courts, playgrounds

 

[Lynda2475]

At this stage they are not going to cancel the Sydney Royal Easter Show

The SRES is a local event, doesnt attract huge number of overseas particpants or tourists, so i wouldnt think risk was same as say the Grand Prix. It wouldnt be importing offshore cases, its just people coing in from regional areas to the big smoke. Then again I havent been since it was at Moore Park, cant imagine it at Olympic Park and no kids.

 

[jb747]

At this stage they are not going to cancel the Sydney Royal Easter Show.

What if they have a show, but nobody comes....

I wonder what part the business penchant for open plan offices will ultimately play in this? Or at least the level to which any business is affected.

 

[kpc]

At this stage they are not going to cancel the Sydney Royal Easter Show.

They should...if they don't, I won't be going!

 

[Denali]

Fair enough. Still some time before that event, and it's mostly outdoors.
Plenty of sporting events before this with NRL starting this week and AFL next.
Personally I'd be more concerned about indoor places that have high turnover of different people on the same day - cinemas, food courts, playgrounds

Geez, the NRL will have even less people than usual.

I was suppose to go out last night to meet a Hemsworth and have drinks and canapes - gave it a miss.

Hubby usually catches a bus to my office and has lunch with me on Thursday - hes going to give it a miss for a while as well.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

however:

• Dr. Redd of the CDC just said that 1784 people have been tested by CDC for the coronavirus.

On March 8, the CDC number was 1707.​

That means CDC has tested 77 people in the last 72 hours or so.​

• https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237160638780186627

Public health officials have identified at least 233 cases in the U.S. so, a fraction of the more than 100,600 infections across the world. But epidemiologists and state officials say the actual number of COVID-19 patients in the U.S. is likely in the thousands, maybe even tens of thousands, since testing here has been limited by a lack of kits and stringent criteria set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Compton-Phillips said the doctors, nurses and other front-line workers watching the outbreak in real time are all saying “this is coming.”

“It’s not if, it’s when. And we better get ready now,” she said.

Doctor who treated first US coronavirus patient says COVID-19 has been 'circulating unchecked' for weeks

Dr. Amy Compton-Phillips said doctors, nurses and other other front-line workers are all saying, "This is coming. It's not if, it's when. And we better get ready now."

www.cnbc.com

 

[drron]

OK just to set the record straight.CDC announced over a week ago that they were recording just the tests samples sent to them for testing.Some states have developed their own tests and are reported separately.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

www.cdc.gov

As you can see the numbers tested by the CDC were over 1000 by the end of January.The official figures tested by the CDC as of yesterday were 3791 and by other public health labs 7288.As of 29/2 private labs were authorised to develop test kits and do their own testing so even these test numbers are on the low side of tests done.
Also the much maligned VP Mike Pence hasn't been napping-already getting an agreement with private insurers that nobody will be out of pocket getting tested or treated for Covid 19.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237553935054819328

Also in their plans for the economy with the Covid virus making sure those casual or part time employees on hourly pay rates don't miss out.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237547783529197568

Sorry but those paragons of virtue the NYT and Wapo are reporting fake news.
Then look at Italy,France,Germany and Spain where the first cases were identified after the first case in the USA,20/1,and explain why their cases are exploding more than the USA's.

The thing is testing isn't the measure of success in controlling the virus which is why Japan and Taiwan are succeeding in decreasing the spread because they had their plans in place after the SARs virus caused major problems for them.South Korea was initially in the same situation but they were unlucky in having a super spreader early on so had to pull out all stops.These countries also have populations who will respond to the correct policies.

Control is best achieved by social isolation and good sanitary practices.But unfortunately there will always be people who don't think the advice relates to them.
Also the cost of those policies.This makes Western Democracies less able to institute these measures.

 

[qaz]

OK just to set the record straight.CDC announced over a week ago that they were recording just the tests samples sent to them for testing.Some states have developed their own tests and are reported separately.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

www.cdc.gov

As you can see the numbers tested by the CDC were over 1000 by the end of January.The official figures tested by the CDC as of yesterday were 3791 and by other public health labs 7288.As of 29/2 private labs were authorised to develop test kits and do their own testing so even these test numbers are on the low side of tests done.

thanks, but don't confuse 3791 swab specimens with 1784 people - more than one swab specimen is / can be taken from each person tested?

 

[drron]

Yes it is usually 2 tests per person.but interesting that they say3791 specimens.But even on those specimen figures it comes out to nearly 3 times the number of people tested.Plus it doesn't include those tested at private labs.

California has set up 4 Covid labs using their own viral test.They can each process 1000 specimens (500 people) a day.

 

[qaz]

Yes it is usually 2 tests per person.but interesting that they say3791 specimens.But even on those specimen figures it comes out to nearly 3 times the number of people tested.Plus it doesn't include those tested at private labs.

California has set up 4 Covid labs using their own viral test.They can each process 1000 specimens (500 people) a day.

I presume you mean that as non-CDC labs test about twice the number as the CDC (1.9, 7288 vs 3791), that the total tested is about three times (2.9) the CDC?

So if CDC tested 77 people in the last 72 hours, then the total for all labs would be 225-231, which averages 75-77 people per day?

• 

  ‘It’s Just Everywhere Already’: How Delays in Testing Set Back the U.S. Coronavirus Response (Published 2020)

  A series of missed chances by the federal government to ensure more widespread testing came during the early days of the outbreak, when containment would have been easier.

  www.nytimes.com

• The Dangerous Delays in U.S. Coronavirus Testing Haven’t Stopped

• https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237792480747311104

• https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237513158794850309