We should start collecting our own AFF data and selling it to QF/VA (then they don't need spies
). It seems Rex was recently added to expertflyer which means it's now possible to view the seat maps, checking after the flight has departed gives a good idea. Here is this mornings (11/4) ZL9, no one in business and just 77 in economy (load factor of ~45% total or ~47.5% in Economy). For comparison the Qantas flight at the same time had 87 in economy (it wouldn't show me business) which makes the QF flight at least 50% (or ~53% in economy).
View attachment 244861
View attachment 244860
Yep, actually an inch better.
Hasn't AFF discussed Expert Flyer a few times in its own little section and members concluded that it routinely underestimates the number of booked passengers?
Of course there may sometimes be airline staff members travelling, added at the last moment, but IIRC the forum concluded that EF was not overly accurate in informing how many revenue passengers travel on each flight?
Admittedly I did it in the past far more for international flights but EF would show quite a lot of empty seats and when I boarded various airlines like EK, PR or SQ they were routinely somewhat 'more occupied' than EF's seat map suggested.
However if you contend EF is accurate and this random sample, albeit early on a Sunday morning - hardly peak time - is a good representation, it indicates that QFd's loads are suffering, not just ZL's.
If I have counted correctly, today from SYD southbound to MEL there are:
17 QFd flights
15 JQd flights
14 VAd 2.0 flights
7 ZL flights
making a total of 53.
I neglected to keep a copy of what it would have been on a similar Sunday in April 2019, pre COVID-19,. but QFd alone used to often operate 30-36 flights on a Sunday from memory - fewer in the morning but typically a half hourly schedule through much of the afternoon, and the early to mid evening, and JQ and VA 1.0 around the 17-20 mark each.
If so, then demand continues to be way down, and as jb747 pointed out, there are fewer widebodies operating flights. The 'trend to favour B738s' had been the case for a while but again memory tells me that there were indeed more A332s running up and down with QFd and VAd on this leading patronage-wise route in say April 2019 than today. VAd 2.0 lacks any A332s.