Rex to fly between Australian capital cities

Saab34

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Probably one of the worst days today I’ve seen load wise ML-SY. Pretty much all flights today about 20-25 people. Some less. Virgin has a few half full here and there but the majority are 95% plus full.

Tue/Wed/Thur is largely business travellers. They might as well not fly on these days with these numbers.
 

jase05

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Probably one of the worst days today I’ve seen load wise ML-SY. Pretty much all flights today about 20-25 people. Some less. Virgin has a few half full here and there but the majority are 95% plus full.

Tue/Wed/Thur is largely business travellers. They might as well not fly on these days with these numbers.
0700 SYD-MEL Today
ZL9 - 3 in J, 19 in Y
VA808 - 6 in J, 163 in Y

Looking similar loads tomorrow
 

jase05

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The whole model is unviable.
Pricing for the 0700 SYD-MEL rest of week
VA808
Wed 8/12 Y Only Flex remaining $499, J $599
Thu 9/12 Y Only Flex remaining $449, J $399 (Yes J is cheaper)
Fri 10/12 Y all sold out, J $599

ZL9
Every day Y Promo $69, Saver $119, Flex $299, J Saver $299, Biz $399

Pretty evident that VA808 is practically a full house for remainder of week whilst ZL9 will be mostly empty
Very sad reading if you are a Rex exec I’d think
 

MooTime

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Would be nice to know the average price paid by reach pax... Just out of interest.

I don't suspect many buying the $4hunj+ for Y.

Wonder how long ZL can keep going like this, burning cash, many millions the Singaporean investor had I realise.

How much will a frequent flyer businesses change it??
 

Saab34

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The money they are using for this experiment is PE shareholders correct? I don’t think burning through 150m and coming out the other end of that, to 10-20% loads is what they planned. They ask for another 100 million. I’d imagine strings would be attached. I don’t really see much changing.

Seems largely just a giant waste of money. I wonder how much patience shareholders have.
 

jakeseven7

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The money they are using for this experiment is PE shareholders correct? I don’t think burning through 150m and coming out the other end of that, to 10-20% loads is what they planned. They ask for another 100 million. I’d imagine strings would be attached. I don’t really see much changing.

Seems largely just a giant waste of money. I wonder how much patience shareholders have.

And they see Bonza! on the horizon as well, which for all their fanfare about 'new routes and new customers' (lol yup....) they are going to impact Rex, VA2 and JQ as well. Its going to be carnage for a while and as history tells us, not all will survive....

It will be Rexy, VA2 or Bonza! waving the white flag and disappearing / merging / being sold/bought within 18 months I'd say..... we need @pauly7 to give us a more expert opinion though!
 
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Saab34

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Nobody would buy RexJet. They don’t have any permanent Sydney slots, Virgin would cut a deal with the leasing company on the side to get those aircraft.

The business isn’t worth anything. I understand the regional operation was kept seperate from this investment, which is obviously worth something.

You basically just let it die off. However with the passenger numbers they are pulling, nobody would actually probably even notice if they disappeared overnight.
 

HS-TQE

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If I also recall REX are using 'international' slots for their RexJet services, correct? If so, thats not much of an asset to pick up for any 'potential' suitors.

Only other option would be to liquidate the RexJet ops, the 20+ year old 738s may be worth for freight conversion if any interested operators are willing to do a deal with the lessors of the RexJet fleet.
 

jakeseven7

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If I also recall REX are using 'international' slots for their RexJet services, correct? If so, thats not much of an asset to pick up for any 'potential' suitors.

Only other option would be to liquidate the RexJet ops, the 20+ year old 738s may be worth for freight conversion if they're willing to do a deal with the lessors of the RexJet fleet.

Virgin are being forced to relinquish some of their unused SYD slots though.... to who is unknown, could be Rexy, Bonza or even QF Group - as they don't have the aircraft anymore to use them.... if Rexy snared some might change things.... a little?
 

HS-TQE

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Virgin are being forced to relinquish some of their unused SYD slots though.... to who is unknown, could be Rexy, Bonza or even QF Group - as they don't have the aircraft anymore to use them.... if Rexy snared some might change things.... a little?

After the ex MI/SQ deliveries, VA still has the 7x 737s deliveries from an undisclosed operator. Still yet remains to be seen whether if they're 2nd hand 73Gs from WN (which would grow their 737-700 fleet) or more ex-MI/SQ 738s.

On a side note, there are also the extra 2x A320s on the way for VARA as well.
 

Saab34

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Virgin are being forced to relinquish some of their unused SYD slots though
I don’t think that has actually been confirmed yet?

They temporarily gave some Tiger slots over from what I read between October to March

The 737 fleet will be 100+ in a year or two. Much bigger than VA 1.0
 

jase05

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Soon to have the largest 737 fleet in the country and only 12-18 months before the MAX order starts arriving. As much as some on here are cheerleading the demise of VA I think they might be just fine
 

dajop

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So what does it cost to operate the 6 737's? (i.e. how long will the PE money last). I assume the overheads for Rex jet won't be that great, due to the already established corporate structure. I note that VA domestic used to cost $3.8b or so to operate in 2018-2019 with a fleet of 125 or so? That's $3.5m/week for a fleet of 6 aircraft. Defrayed by revenue of up to $0.1-0.2m/week (assuming 20 pax per flight paying $100/head). Also how much of this expansion is being financed by PE vs financed by the Australian taxpayer? ;)
 

Mattg

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So what does it cost to operate the 6 737's? (i.e. how long will the PE money last). I assume the overheads for Rex jet won't be that great, due to the already established corporate structure. I note that VA domestic used to cost $3.8b or so to operate in 2018-2019 with a fleet of 125 or so? That's $3.5m/week for a fleet of 6 aircraft. Defrayed by revenue of up to $0.1-0.2m/week (assuming 20 pax per flight paying $100/head). Also how much of this expansion is being financed by PE vs financed by the Australian taxpayer? ;)


Using the formula from that article, we could estimate that it would cost Rex around AU$366,000 per day to operate their full schedule of 737 flights on the SYD-MEL, MEL-ADL, SYD-OOL, MEL-OOL, MEL-CBR, MEL-BNE and SYD-BNE routes. Perhaps Rex's operating costs are a bit lower than average, which would reduce this amount but we could use that as a guide.

If they sold 100% of available Economy and Business Class seats on every flight, at the current airfares for Economy & Business on each route, they would make around $431,000 in revenue per day of operations. In other words, at the current airfares Rex is charging, they would need to sell 85% of seats across all classes of travel (including selling the J seats at full price) to break even. But clearly Rex is not getting average load factors of even close to 85%.

If Rex sold all Economy seats on every flight, but none of the Business seats, it would make revenue of around $356,000. Which is $10,000 less than the operating costs, give or take.

But even this would be a far better outcome than what is currently happening, with just 20-30 pax on many SYD-MEL flights.

If some fares are sold at higher prices, customers are purchasing ancillaries, Rex is carrying cargo or the airline is getting government subsidies, the revenue situation improves. But most people seem to be paying only the lowest fare and anecdotally, very few J seats are being filled by paying customers.

In a nutshell, Rex is likely losing a lot of money from its 737 operations.

How long can this continue? Well, that depends just how much money Rex is losing from its 737 operations. But if we assumed that the average load factor per flight was currently 50% in Y and 25% in J (I have no idea if this is accurate), that would potentially mean Rex is losing around $169,000 per day. At that rate, it would take around 20 months to burn through the $100 million investment.

Of course, there are lots of assumptions being made here. This is just a "back of the envelope" estimate and could be totally wrong. If you change your modelling assumptions you get a different answer.

For anyone interested, here's my working:

Screen Shot 2021-12-08 at 6.48.50 pm.png
 

Melburnian1

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Using the formula from that article, we could estimate that it would cost Rex around AU$366,000 per day to operate their full schedule of 737 flights on the SYD-MEL, MEL-ADL, SYD-OOL, MEL-OOL, MEL-CBR, MEL-BNE and SYD-BNE routes. Perhaps Rex's operating costs are a bit lower than average, which would reduce this amount but we could use that as a guide.

If they sold 100% of available Economy and Business Class seats on every flight, at the current airfares for Economy & Business on each route, they would make around $431,000 in revenue per day of operations. In other words, at the current airfares Rex is charging, they would need to sell 85% of seats across all classes of travel (including selling the J seats at full price) to break even. But clearly Rex is not getting average load factors of even close to 85%.

If Rex sold all Economy seats on every flight, but none of the Business seats, it would make revenue of around $356,000. Which is $10,000 less than the operating costs, give or take.

But even this would be a far better outcome than what is currently happening, with just 20-30 pax on many SYD-MEL flights.

If some fares are sold at higher prices, customers are purchasing ancillaries, Rex is carrying cargo or the airline is getting government subsidies, the revenue situation improves. But most people seem to be paying only the lowest fare and anecdotally, very few J seats are being filled by paying customers.

In a nutshell, Rex is likely losing a lot of money from its 737 operations.

How long can this continue? Well, that depends just how much money Rex is losing from its 737 operations. But if we assumed that the average load factor per flight was currently 50% in Y and 25% in J (I have no idea if this is accurate), that would potentially mean Rex is losing around $169,000 per day. At that rate, it would take around 20 months to burn through the $100 million investment.

Of course, there are lots of assumptions being made here. This is just a "back of the envelope" estimate and could be totally wrong. If you change your modelling assumptions you get a different answer.

For anyone interested, here's my working:

View attachment 266650

Can't argue with your figures - you may well be correct, though ZL B738 median load factors may be even lower than you suggest, going by the sample of EF loaidngs I've accessed - but for the record as a side note, QFi/QFd combined is losing a lot of money at present, and it's a matter of public record it had $2.8 million in (new?) debt a couple of months ago (more today) while VAd may (must) be also losing money hand over fist.

So bleak times all round.
 

henrus

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I'm surprised they haven't switched any 737 flights for the Saab's yet. If they only have a light load of bookings then one would think it'd make sense to downgrade the aircraft.
 

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