QF profit to fall 90% - shares falling

[docjames]

Plus that anyone who wants to buy more than either 15% or 19% are required to make an open bid to all shareholders.


Sent from the Throne

Which basically stops any o/s investor going over 15% as they cannot open bid as they cannot buy >49%.

 

[eastwest101]

Which basically stops any o/s investor going over 15% as they cannot open bid as they cannot buy >49%.

1. Note that things like The Capital Group have registered offices in Australia
2. Other hedge funds or private equity companies have a way of acting within the letter of the law of ASX requirements but can still deliver large surprises!
3. Will have to check if naked shorting is allowed at the moment, covered shorting is allowed but naked shorting still illegal AFAIK
4. Given that australian share investors may be fleeing the market in general, & putting their $$ in the bank (or under the matress?) what is supporting the current share price?
5. End of financial year coming soon - everyone trying to crystallize/maximize their tax losses before 1st July. Tax losses not hard to find at the moment though.


As others have said - knowing whom is selling at the moment is almost irrelevant as its a herd instinct in a mindless fear/panic situation, the really interesting thing is whom is actually buying? And why? Thats the interesting story here.

 

[cove]

Yes they can buy 19.99% subject to the sub 50% rule of foreign ownership which I think is part of the Qantas Sale Act when they floated (without making a takeover bid). It is not inconceivable that a change may take place when 4% of the company traded today. Disclosure of becoming a substantial shareholder of 5% or more has to be within 3 trading days I believe so if you started with say 4.9 % you could be over 10% quickly.

 

[cove]

Re: How low can it go? QAN at 0.97c

I am hoping that what I bought this afternoon will prove to be ok in the future.
It was a panic selling day today for Qantas.

 

[Hvr]

Re: How low can it go? QAN at 0.97c

<snip>
"If" that happens, how many of you will use up the Frequent Flyer points before its too late?

Just purchased a JASA so that used 256K points.

 

[Timba-Jet]

I'm in BKK. Qantas dismal share price was shown on BBC news lol

 

[eastwest101]

Re: How low can it go? QAN at 0.97c

So the recomended consensus is to "buy the shares" but "use up the QFF points" ?

 

[cove]

Re: How low can it go? QAN at 0.97c

Never stop using those points in any program (not just Qantas) and remember to enjoy using them.

 

[seanpodge]

Re: How low can it go? QAN at 0.97c

Anyone else concerned? Has anyone heard anything from Qantas about what they plan to do to stem the flow?

How low until a private equity buyout attempt?

"If" that happens, how many of you will use up the Frequent Flyer points before its too late?

I'm not a QF Frequent Flyer member, but I'd start looking at how quickly can I use up my points if I was. Even if the program survives, there would be a fair risk of devaluation. Not that it's a great idea to let the balance build up for too long if those points matter, of course.

 

[ChrisCunard]

Never stop using those points in any program (not just Qantas) and remember to enjoy using them.

I agree.

I remember the devastating loss of Ansett Golden Wing point and all those people in shock due to loss of 000,000's of point. In hind sight it was so obvious that they should have used them in 2000!

I don't want to be one of those "if only" if Qantas continue down this dangerous path. I've just upgraded all my whY bookings and still have a heap in the bank that need using - at least flying is going to be fun!

 

[ChrisCunard]

Oh and I just want to put it out there that as a shareholder I think the lack of communication from QF management these last few days regarding the share price is an absolute utter disgrace. #nuffsaid

 

[Must...Fly!]

Oh and I just want to put it out there that as a shareholder I think the lack of communication from QF management these last few days regarding the share price is an absolute utter disgrace. #nuffsaid

I find this the most curious of all...

 

[JohnPhelan]

Oh and I just want to put it out there that as a shareholder I think the lack of communication from QF management these last few days regarding the share price is an absolute utter disgrace. #nuffsaid

What exactly would you have expected them to say?

 

[moa999]

Most companies havea policy of not commenting on the share price.
I would prefer the Board and CEO focus on running the business rather than worrying about short sellers and speculators.

 

[cove]

Before you start thinking Qantas is in serious trouble they would need to have all aspects of their business bathed in red ink.
Now clearly that is not the case here but with S and P moving the risk level makes borrowing more expensive to buy new equipment.
Sure it is harder to make money in aviation and the A380 introduction has not been without issues but that is all part of running this business.
Simon Hickey has been the star of Qantas Frequent Flyer so let's see what he can do with International.

 

[drron]

Which basically stops any o/s investor going over 15% as they cannot open bid as they cannot buy >49%.

It certainly could give them effective control.just need 1 local Institutional investor onside to be certain.But even if that didn't happen most mum and dad investors wouldn't vote at AGMs etc so 49% is effective control.
Basically another piece of evidence that Governments(no matter of which colour) have no idea of the real world thinking 49% stops an OS investor from controlling QF.
Knew i had left out a bit and AFF goes offline.
Anyway as to the 19% and formal takeover there is a creep provision so the stake can be gradually built up.but again there is always the opportunity to tie up with other OS or local Institutions and again get effective control.

 

[amaroo]

Re: How low can it go? QAN at 0.97c

Never stop using those points in any program (not just Qantas) and remember to enjoy using them.

The best point - is the one that has been earned & already burned.

It's not cash in the bank!

 

[moa999]

Re: How low can it go? QAN at 0.97c

The creep provision once at 19.9% is 3% every six months. Thats a long time from 20% to 40% and everyone knows exactly what you are doing given you need to announce every 1% move.
A foreign airline (the most likely person who would want to sit with partial control) is also limited to 25%

 

[ChrisCunard]

Ouch, shares are down 17c to $1.24

Edit - Make that $1.21 or 20.5c

Ahh for the days of 1.21!!

 

[ChrisCunard]

I hate this current environment where QFi is being considered a lesser asset than QFf or JQ. Without QFi the airline is a lame duck, no better than Australian Airlines was... The whole reason behind merging the airlines in the 90's was to create one strong airline. It needs to be correctly managed back to greatness.