QF fleet discussion

[lovestotravel]

Quite an interesting presentation!

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131007/pdf/42jvtkhv0xc7vm.pdf

A380's still indicative of a possible FY17 delivery
B787's for QF won't be confirmed for another 2 years and only if QFi is returned to profit.....

B734s to be gone by FEB 2014

But what is more interesting is the first mention that QF 738's have the A320/A321neo listed as possible replacement options. Would make sense as QF GROUP has 190 options/purchase rights on these already

Also the B744 has A330/A380/A350XWB/B787/B777X listed
B717 has the A319neo/B737-7MAX/C-Series/E-Jet listed

Of course this is pretty much any possible aircraft option listed.... But it's nice to read

Wake me when QF actually orders something though

 

[dk4]

B787's for QF won't be confirmed for another 2 years and only if QFi is returned to profit.....

I think the smart money's on QFi becoming mostly a "virtual airline" and not requiring much of its own metal in the future.

 

[samh004]

But what is more interesting is the first mention that QF 738's have the A320/A321neo listed as possible replacement options. Would make sense as QF GROUP has 190 options/purchase rights on these already

Wouldn't having the same fleet type between QFd and JQd create dramas? QF Group would probably try pay them all at the same reduced rate, while JQ would probably try get paid more, more union shenanigans on the horizon?

If Boeing were further along I'd have thought a composite 737 might be the next thing we see. But I read that's a way off.

B717 has the A319neo/B737-7MAX/C-Series/E-Jet listed

I hope it's the C-series. The CS300 would fit particularly well into the QFLink fleet I think, taking over from the 717 with more seating and range.

I think the smart money's on QFi becoming mostly a "virtual airline" and not requiring much of its own metal in the future.

Metal or plastic?

 

[docjames]

Interesting presentation.

- Given the number of A320s on order, you'd think it's only a matter of time before they are in red painted tails unless they plan to stop growing QFd / QFi short haul (NZ).

- Note the current fleet age graph doesn't show Virgin Aus (I wonder why....)

- p7 suggests the 738s will replace the A330 on "east coast" flying

- p10 on seats counts not great reading from a pax perspective (but great from an investor / company financial perspective).

- looks like all A330s will be getting a lie flat seat (well at least that's what it's implying early in the document) but then it suggests there's two configs - not sure if that means -300 vs -200 or dom vs int

- I hope not too much money has been spent on the 763 "refresh" given they are going in FY15/16.

- I dont understand the "maths" on p12 - line maintenace in LAX, with "1 extra day's flying" equating to a 15% utilisation increase - the numbers done match for me.

/OT/
p15 - i'm surprised Delta's maint cost per ASK is so low given the number of old aircraft they operate eg 757-200 etc.



Jetstar pages

- interesting how quickly Japan has increased aircraft to 13 A320s whereas Jetstar Asia which has been around much longer is still only 17 A320s. (Tiger: 48, AirAsia:129)
- it's no surprise >90% are point to point as they make it difficult to do connections.
- i forget Japan is the third largest domestic aviation market (although Europe would be considerably fragmented an if you counted "EU" flights this would be different!)

All in all, an interesting presentation. Thanks for pointing it out.

 

[lovestotravel]

Wouldn't having the same fleet type between QFd and JQd create dramas? QF Group would probably try pay them all at the same reduced rate, while JQ would probably try get paid more, more union shenanigans on the horizon?

Exactly why the A320 is likely to happen at QFd

 

[Gold Member]

A380 on QF domestic. Finally some common sense and return to customer experience. Well done QFF loyalty teams!

 

[moa999]

Reviewing the B738 v A320 makes sense partially due to QF group orders but also as the 738 wing height could compromise new engine options.

On the 767 refresh there is a reason removeable iPads and WiFi equipment was installed

 

[yohy?!]

I like this one:

 

[elbarto]

Remaining A380s converted to A350 orders.

 

[Paddy55]

I like this one:

View attachment 19689

LOL! Thought that plane had been banned by someone high in QF

 

[Mattg]

Thank you for posting this presentation, I found it fascinating!

 

[samh004]

Remaining A380s converted to A350 orders.

Interesting speculation.

I'd assume they'd choose the A350-1000 due to be introduced in 2017 as it has longer range and payload. They'd still lose 100 pax, but it can store 44 LD3's/14 pallets, compared to the A380-800's 38 LD3's/13 pallets (787-9 also holds only 36 LD3), which would be a useful cargo gain to them. And they'd save ~€50 million off the list price.

 

[Awesom Andy]

I'd assume they'd choose the A350-1000 due to be introduced in 2017 as it has longer range and payload. They'd still lose 100 pax, but it can store 44 LD3's/14 pallets, compared to the A380-800's 38 LD3's/13 pallets (787-9 also holds only 36 LD3), which would be a useful cargo gain to them. And they'd save ~€50 million off the list price.

I think a lot of airlines would have a think about something along that line. After all, the economics of flying 4-engine aircrafts aren't that great. And in QF's case, they would probably make a good 744ER replacement. I know it's sad to see the 744 goes out in this way, but economically, it makes sense. And on top of that, the A380 has never been a good cargo carrier as such.

And then, we get to the A330 replacement. While the most logical option at the moment is the 787, if they really do convert the A380 orders to A350-1000 as above, then wouldn't it make sense to get some A350-800/900 as well? Of course, we might simply end up seeing them going to Jetstar, with the now 7-year-old 787 passed back to QF with a cabin refresh.

Personally, I have no issue with the A320s replacing B738s. After all, we'll all have a seat approx 1 inch wider. It's not much, but better than nothing, I guess.

 

[eastwest101]

The interesting thing about those two presentations was that the QF fleet presentation was delivered by the CFO Chief Bean Counter, the phrase "right aircraft for the route" appeared quite often, fairly boring predictable presentation with a strong emphasis on cost control and optionality/flexibility.

I got the feeling that Mr Evans would prefer that all domestic flights within Australia would be served by Dash 8s if he had his way.

Retirement of B767 fleet = increased airfares in QFd network (there is no escaping the reduction in capacity)

Still playing games with A330 future - still not clear but hinting at all the A333's in Internationional config with lie flat J but all A332's will be domestic with the 2-3-3 ex-Starclass seating in J class cabin?

The JQ presentation reminded me of the Uranium Float presentations in 2007 - with "this time its different!" and "Once in a century opportunity!". My buzzword bingo detector was off the scale. Less sugar in the Kool Aid required there.....

 

[MarcB]

Interesting presentation.



- I dont understand the "maths" on p12 - line maintenace in LAX, with "1 extra day's flying" equating to a 15% utilisation increase - the numbers done match for me.

All in all, an interesting presentation. Thanks for pointing it out.

Interesting side note on this one is the mention of using this extra day for a BNE-LAX A380 service.

 

[markis10]

747 retirement still leaves two non reconfig birds, presume they will be the F birds to sub for the odd A380 service.

 

[moa999]

Agree the 15 current 747s (6 reconfig ERs, 3 reconfig, 6 old) less 2 retirements in FY14 less 2 retirements in FY15/16 does not equal the 9 medium term.
Unless of course the 2 means 2 in each of FY15 and FY16.

Secondly what planes will replace these 4/6 retiring 747s given the returning Jetstar A330s are nominated as 767 replacements.

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The JQ slides on comparing its "value" to other LCCs were interesting

 

[docjames]

Thinking if the A330s are only used trans-con and not on east coast, there'd be scope for the 737-900 or A321 to be utilised east coast - still a capacity reduction, but not as dramatic.

 

[markis10]

Agree the 15 current 747s (6 reconfig ERs, 3 reconfig, 6 old) less 2 retirements in FY14 less 2 retirements in FY15/16 does not equal the 9 medium term.
Unless of course the 2 means 2 in each of FY15 and FY16.

Secondly what planes will replace these 4/6 retiring 747s given the returning Jetstar A330s are nominated as 767 replacements.

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The JQ slides on comparing its "value" to other LCCs were interesting

I think its three birds that are not accounted for, the plan to do 2 retirements this year has been forcast for a while and we had OJE go in August, counting as one of the two bringing it down to 15.

 

[Aussie_flyer]

Thinking if the A330s are only used trans-con and not on east coast, there'd be scope for the 737-900 or A321 to be utilised east coast - still a capacity reduction, but not as dramatic.

Although I know they won't be as frequent as 767 services I reckon we will still see a few A330's on the syd-mel and syd-bne flights.