QF considering relaunching PER-SIN

[JohnK]

Transit passengers aren't the issue. It's the domestic passengers that are the issue (D sticker passengers) - and the flight would need a considerable number of them travelling between ADL & PER to be successful, in a range of fare classes. As I said at the ADL end, having to go through international is probably not a big disincentive, but at the PER end it may be for the time being given the location of the international terminal.

Oh apologies. I missed the D sticker.

Assuming domestic passengers are not going to connect anywhere else then the PER international terminal would not be an issue.

From a different perpsective here would be an opportunity to fly an international A330 between ADL and PER. Those travelling business class would choose this flight over the 738s?

 

[bobe]

Has anyone any idea when / if QF will make a statement, will it be in the next few weeks/ months or if ever? Need to book a few flights Jan-Feb, marvellous what AFFs get to know

 

[Cynicor]

Right now I think this is in the "purely speculation" basket, but with results coming out end of August, the only potential date would be then, I imagine.

 

[eastwest101]

Right now I think this is in the "purely speculation" basket, but with results coming out end of August, the only potential date would be then, I imagine.

So to sum up, the "Plan B" (whatever that is) could be, and assuming the Plan B even involves SIN which may not be the case.

B738 QFi services? Possible but problematic crew hours.
A332 QFi services? Nope - no aircraft except on weekends.
A333 QFi services? Nope - no aircraft due to retirement of B767 & B744 fleet etc
B787 JQi service? Unlikely as this would require a B787 base and flying B787s transcon in Aus, not enough B787s in JQi fleet anyway.
A380 QFi pit-stop between say MEL-DXB to MEL-PER-DXB? Inadequate infrastructure to handle A380s in PER and would hurt the current A380 services to DXB.
Codeshare EK A330 service PER-SIN-DXB? Vaguely possible but I don't see what EK have to gain.
Some sort of co-operation with MH? I think MH have their own problems to sort out.
Some sort of co-operation with CX? Friendless in HK at the moment, and no reason for CX to help QFi out at all.
Some sort or co-operation with BA? Now we are getting into laughable territory here.
Maintaining or re-timing the 3K A320 service? Possible but reports are this is losing money.

As far as I can tell - except for the B738 option - they are completely snookered either by lack of suitable equipment, lack of partners, lack of destinations, no economy of scale, an airport in PER that seems designed to make QF's life difficult and also competitors with either lower costs or better products.

 

[Jos888]

So to sum up, the "Plan B" (whatever that is) could be, and assuming the Plan B even involves SIN which may not be the case.

B738 QFi services? Possible but problematic crew hours.
A332 QFi services? Nope - no aircraft except on weekends.
A333 QFi services? Nope - no aircraft due to retirement of B767 & B744 fleet etc
B787 JQi service? Unlikely as this would require a B787 base and flying B787s transcon in Aus, not enough B787s in JQi fleet anyway.
A380 QFi pit-stop between say MEL-DXB to MEL-PER-DXB? Inadequate infrastructure to handle A380s in PER and would hurt the current A380 services to DXB.
Codeshare EK A330 service PER-SIN-DXB? Vaguely possible but I don't see what EK have to gain.
Some sort of co-operation with MH? I think MH have their own problems to sort out.
Some sort or co-operation with BA? Now we are getting into laughable territory here.
Maintaining or re-timing the 3K A320 service? Possible but reports are this is losing money.

As far as I can tell - except for the B738 option - they are completely snookered either by lack of suitable equipment, lack of partners, lack of destinations, no economy of scale, an airport in PER that seems designed to make QF's life difficult and also competitors with either lower costs or better products.

I'd be happy with weekend flights...

 

[v8Statesman]

I want the $999 J rtn for sept/oct school holidays!

 

[wandering_fred]

QF considering PER-SIN - what is the required schedule?

In the spirit of encouraging the various airlines to consider PER (and ADL) as an international departure (and arrival) location I decided to do a bit of research relating to what schedules might create the best opportunities for routes to SE Asia. :shock: :mrgreen: Firstly I looked at the OneWorld arrivals and departures for SIN and BKK in the heaviest grouping of flights.

Singapore Arrivals
BA011 LHR 1550
BA015 LHR 1730
AY081 HEL 1640
JL037 HND 1720
MH605 KUL 1725
UL302 CMB 1400
QF8432 DXB 1405
QF3959 DEL 1235

Singapore Departures
BA012 LHR 2255
BA016 LHR 2305
AY082 HEL 2335
JL036 HND 2150
MH610 KUL 2115
QF8355 DXB 2125
QF8349 CMB 0050
QF3958 DEL 2230

Proposed flight schedule for ADL-PER-SIN utilizing one aircraft

ADL 0900 PER 1100 // 1300 SIN 1830
SIN 2030 PER 0200 // 0330 ADL 0730

Ideally the flight in to Singapore would arrive an hour (or 90 minutes) later with the departing flight earlier by the same amount. But then you have the question of what to do with the airplane sitting in Singapore. Note: This schedule should also work for O&D on the routes. Though I suspect the domestic uptake on PER-ADL would be challenging low.

Bangkok Arrivals
BA009 LHR 0915
AY089 HEL 0715
JL033 HND 0500

Bangkok Departures
BA010 LHR 1120
AY090 HEL 0900
JL708 NRT 0810
JL032 HND 0945

Proposed flight schedule for ADL-PER-BKK (needs 737MAX or other longer range aircraft for PER-BKK)

ADL 1945 PER 2145 // 2345 BKK 0730
BKK 1030 PER 1745 // 1945 ADL 0115

This would require merger of the aircraft with the ADL domestic schedule. And this adds a later ADL-PER flight to the domestic schedule.

Feel free to take apart into as many pieces as you can.

Happy wandering

Fred

 

[Isochronous]

Re: QF considering PER-SIN - what is the required schedule?

PER-HKG might make more sense than PER-SIN because:

1) PER-SIN is saturated with SQ, Tiger, JQ, 3K, Scoot, et al
2) PER-HKG is a CX monopoly with just 1 flight a day and no prospect of LCC competition
3) HKG has all the same connections as SIN - BA, AY, CX,and critically AA HKG-DFW. QF could then codeshare with AA on HKG-DFW to support PER-HKG services as part of the TPAC AA JSA and capture more of the WA-USA travel market, most of whom prefer one-stop to JFK and other major US cities on CX via HKG instead of QF via MEL/SYD as well as LAX/DFW.
4) More business traffic from HKG, and CX is short of planes so can't capacity dump immediately to start a fare war.

 

[Pleb Status]

So to sum up, the "Plan B" (whatever that is) could be, and assuming the Plan B even involves SIN which may not be the case.

B738 QFi services? Possible but problematic crew hours.
A332 QFi services? Nope - no aircraft except on weekends.
A333 QFi services? Nope - no aircraft due to retirement of B767 & B744 fleet etc
B787 JQi service? Unlikely as this would require a B787 base and flying B787s transcon in Aus, not enough B787s in JQi fleet anyway.
A380 QFi pit-stop between say MEL-DXB to MEL-PER-DXB? Inadequate infrastructure to handle A380s in PER and would hurt the current A380 services to DXB.
Codeshare EK A330 service PER-SIN-DXB? Vaguely possible but I don't see what EK have to gain.
Some sort of co-operation with MH? I think MH have their own problems to sort out.
Some sort of co-operation with CX? Friendless in HK at the moment, and no reason for CX to help QFi out at all.
Some sort or co-operation with BA? Now we are getting into laughable territory here.
Maintaining or re-timing the 3K A320 service? Possible but reports are this is losing money.

As far as I can tell - except for the B738 option - they are completely snookered either by lack of suitable equipment, lack of partners, lack of destinations, no economy of scale, an airport in PER that seems designed to make QF's life difficult and also competitors with either lower costs or better products.

I was of the understanding that the same cabin crew can operate both the 738 and the 332/333, so only the pilots would be a possible staffing problem operating a single QF 738 service into SIN.

Also, QF would be able to find a spare 332 to do a daily PER-SIN service but if QF were not making money before with this aircraft size, without some other factor changing, they will not make money now with it either. I would not be surprised if the SYD/MEL/BNE-SIN services are struggling to make money as well (all have been downsized to 333 over the past year).

I agree that the JQ787/QF380/EK/MH/CX/BA services are not going to happen.

If 3K are losing money, it is because they appear to be far more expensive than Scoot and Tiger but offer the same LCC experience. Ex SIN and at non-sale pricing, 3K are only slightly cheaper than the lowest SQ fares as well. So those looking solely for the cheapest fare will go elsewhere and so will those looking for a full service option.

If QF were to return to PER-SIN, my bet is on a 5x to 7x per week 738 service operating at about the same times as the old QF77/78 services. QF would still struggle to make money but it may be worth the effort for strategic value alone.

I travel on this route regularly and always flew on QF. I have four rtn trips booked for the remainder of the 2014 year, 1 on 3K and 3 on SQ. I will need to book further flights next year and prefer to fly full service over low cost if possible. QF have already handed 75% of this business to the opposition but they risk even more.

Being only Velocity PS, I do not get lounge access with SQ. It would be now advantageous to move up to Velocity SG to get this access. To do this quickly, I am now looking at moving some of my other QF flying to VA to earn the SC required. These changes will mean I will not retain P1. Therefore, I no longer need to earn the 2700 QF SC. As I prefer CX to EK, I will no longer need to book the QF codeshare flights to Europe ex PER but will go on CX instead. Only needing 1200 QF SC to retain WP (after earning 4200+ SC for each of the past two years), I will not even need to fly on a Oneworld airline.

 

[Mattg]

I was of the understanding that the same cabin crew can operate both the 738 and the 332/333, so only the pilots would be a possible staffing problem operating a single QF 738 service into SIN.

Also, QF would be able to find a spare 332 to do a daily PER-SIN service but if QF were not making money before with this aircraft size, without some other factor changing, they will not make money now with it either. I would not be surprised if the SYD/MEL/BNE-SIN services are struggling to make money as well (all have been downsized to 333 over the past year).

I agree that the JQ787/QF380/EK/MH/CX/BA services are not going to happen.

If 3K are losing money, it is because they appear to be far more expensive than Scoot and Tiger but offer the same LCC experience. Ex SIN and at non-sale pricing, 3K are only slightly cheaper than the lowest SQ fares as well. So those looking solely for the cheapest fare will go elsewhere and so will those looking for a full service option.

If QF were to return to PER-SIN, my bet is on a 5x to 7x per week 738 service operating at about the same times as the old QF77/78 services. QF would still struggle to make money but it may be worth the effort for strategic value alone.

I travel on this route regularly and always flew on QF. I have four rtn trips booked for the remainder of the 2014 year, 1 on 3K and 3 on SQ. I will need to book further flights next year and prefer to fly full service over low cost if possible. QF have already handed 75% of this business to the opposition but they risk even more.

Being only Velocity PS, I do not get lounge access with SQ. It would be now advantageous to move up to Velocity SG to get this access. To do this quickly, I am now looking at moving some of my other QF flying to VA to earn the SC required. These changes will mean I will not retain P1. Therefore, I no longer need to earn the 2700 QF SC. As I prefer CX to EK, I will no longer need to book the QF codeshare flights to Europe ex PER but will go on CX instead. Only needing 1200 QF SC to retain WP (after earning 4200+ SC for each of the past two years), I will not even need to fly on a Oneworld airline.

Yet another example of the unintended consequences of short-sighted decisions by QF management. The opportunity cost of operating vs not operating this flight goes beyond just the relatively small loss they may or may not have been making if it alienates customers and affects loyalty, the company's reputation, loadings on other routes etc. etc.

 

[Mr_Orange]

snip...

I travel on this route regularly and always flew on QF. I have four rtn trips booked for the remainder of the 2014 year, 1 on 3K and 3 on SQ. I will need to book further flights next year and prefer to fly full service over low cost if possible. QF have already handed 75% of this business to the opposition but they risk even more.

Being only Velocity PS, I do not get lounge access with SQ. It would be now advantageous to move up to Velocity SG to get this access. To do this quickly, I am now looking at moving some of my other QF flying to VA to earn the SC required. These changes will mean I will not retain P1. Therefore, I no longer need to earn the 2700 QF SC. As I prefer CX to EK, I will no longer need to book the QF codeshare flights to Europe ex PER but will go on CX instead. Only needing 1200 QF SC to retain WP (after earning 4200+ SC for each of the past two years), I will not even need to fly on a Oneworld airline.

You know, if I were you, I would send this exact post as feedback to QF via various channels so that they get the message, including normal feedback via web site, P1 team and Red Roo. They clearly don't understand that axing one route means that they just loose pax on that route as you have demonstrated they are going to loose a significant amount of travel on other routes.

QF management's lack of a strategic and holistic overview of the operation is the problem.

 

[wandering_fred]

Re: QF considering PER-SIN - what is the required schedule?

PER-HKG might make more sense than PER-SIN because:

1) PER-SIN is saturated with SQ, Tiger, JQ, 3K, Scoot, et al
2) PER-HKG is a CX monopoly with just 1 flight a day and no prospect of LCC competition
3) HKG has all the same connections as SIN - BA, AY, CX,and critically AA HKG-DFW. QF could then codeshare with AA on HKG-DFW to support PER-HKG services as part of the TPAC AA JSA and capture more of the WA-USA travel market, most of whom prefer one-stop to JFK and other major US cities on CX via HKG instead of QF via MEL/SYD as well as LAX/DFW.
4) More business traffic from HKG, and CX is short of planes so can't capacity dump immediately to start a fare war.

While I understand (and support) the points you are making, the issue still remains that QF can fly PER-SIN with a 738 or similar and cannot do so with PER-HKG (outside of narrow body range). In addition, the flight times are about half an hour longer than PER-BKK and are quite a bit out of the way to include a tag for ADL (ADL-HKG 4256mi, ADL-PER-HKG 5050, ADL-BNE-HKG 5313 ADL-DRW-HKG 4272)

If QF wants to think outside the box, PER-BME-HKG (1040+2824 mi) with a 738 on weekends would make more sense. MH is trying something similar with PER-BKI-HKG albeit with connecting flights.

I'll try to work out a connecting flight schedule tonight for PER-HKG.

Happy wandering

Fred

 

[mannej]

Re: QF considering PER-SIN - what is the required schedule?

PER-HKG might make more sense than PER-SIN because:

1) PER-SIN is saturated with SQ, Tiger, JQ, 3K, Scoot, et al
2) PER-HKG is a CX monopoly with just 1 flight a day and no prospect of LCC competition
3) HKG has all the same connections as SIN - BA, AY, CX,and critically AA HKG-DFW. QF could then codeshare with AA on HKG-DFW to support PER-HKG services as part of the TPAC AA JSA and capture more of the WA-USA travel market, most of whom prefer one-stop to JFK and other major US cities on CX via HKG instead of QF via MEL/SYD as well as LAX/DFW.
4) More business traffic from HKG, and CX is short of planes so can't capacity dump immediately to start a fare war.

I do believe CX offers something like 10x weekly ex-PER, so a bit more than 1 daily flight. You had the same argument with NRT as well that it connected into AA flights to the US. I have had family members fly that way to the US instead of flying via the east coast.

 

[Pleb Status]

You know, if I were you, I would send this exact post as feedback to QF via various channels so that they get the message, including normal feedback via web site, P1 team and Red Roo. They clearly don't understand that axing one route means that they just loose pax on that route as you have demonstrated they are going to loose a significant amount of travel on other routes.

QF management's lack of a strategic and holistic overview of the operation is the problem.

I have mentioned it verbally to various QF sources but in writing may have more impact (along with an edited copy of my SQ itineraries).

I honestly believe that QF thought once they withdrew from the route, everybody would just swap to 3K, just like what happened when JQ replaced QF on various domestic routes. However, this does not work as well when you have actual competition and you are abandoning a large city rather than a country town.

In the semi-defence of QF, I think all QF Australia-SIN routes are under pressure since LHR services were diverted via DXB. All remaining services have had their aircraft down gauged to the smallest QF have (332/333) which can make the distance. PER-SIN is the 'canary' as it is the only one possible using a narrow body aircraft and therefore subject to more LCC competition (including from 3K). I can see BNE-SIN being the next casualty due to the EK flight (if timed better) and you can route passengers via SYD if you have to.

I agree that the last year or two has really highlighted the total lack of analysis by QF of the possible impact of their decisions. Prior to the EK alliance announcement, they could of easily calculated how many of their SIN bound customers were connecting to LHR/FRA and if the remaining customers could still make the remaining SIN services viable. Even the QP TBIT lounge access debacle could have been statistically calculated beforehand.

At the end of the day, QF is just another company run by overpaid people who do not really know what they are doing and using their monopoly/duopoly status to get by. It was disappointing when AN went bankrupt but we all moved on. It still disappointing that QFi has stopped serving PER but we will all move on.

 

[markis10]

PER still has int flights if your Lady Gaga

2014-08-15 Perth (PER) Seoul (ICN) QF6037 - 14:50 - Landed 00:37 

 

[Ansett]

I do believe that given Perth's projected growth in the coming years as a result of the Oil and Gas Industry they will need to re think the shut down of QFi from Perth as this will see them not capture significant business both internationally and domestically.

I hear a number of previously loyal QFFers openly stating that they have and or intend to move away from QF either partially or fully. I do not know what impact QF has seen from this shut down at this stage I would suggest that it would not be a positive one and that it will only get worse.

 

[cove]

We are Perth based so we are very,very disappointed that QFI has dust for us.

 

[JessicaTam]

Re: QF considering PER-SIN - what is the required schedule?

In the spirit of encouraging the various airlines to consider PER (and ADL) as an international departure (and arrival) location I decided to do a bit of research relating to what schedules might create the best opportunities for routes to SE Asia. :shock: :mrgreen: Firstly I looked at the OneWorld arrivals and departures for SIN and BKK in the heaviest grouping of flights.

<snip>

Proposed flight schedule for ADL-PER-SIN utilizing one aircraft

ADL 0900 PER 1100 // 1300 SIN 1830
SIN 2030 PER 0200 // 0330 ADL 0730

Ideally the flight in to Singapore would arrive an hour (or 90 minutes) later with the departing flight earlier by the same amount. But then you have the question of what to do with the airplane sitting in Singapore. Note: This schedule should also work for O&D on the routes. Though I suspect the domestic uptake on PER-ADL would be challenging low.

<snip>

Proposed flight schedule for ADL-PER-BKK (needs 737MAX or other longer range aircraft for PER-BKK)

ADL 1945 PER 2145 // 2345 BKK 0730
BKK 1030 PER 1745 // 1945 ADL 0115

This would require merger of the aircraft with the ADL domestic schedule. And this adds a later ADL-PER flight to the domestic schedule.

Feel free to take apart into as many pieces as you can.

Happy wandering

Fred

Thanks for going to such effort. ADL has a curfew which would make the BKK-PER-ADL nigh on impossible. But retiming it would not fit the BKK departures and arrivals, though.

 

[Pleb Status]

Re: QF considering PER-SIN - what is the required schedule?

Proposed flight schedule for ADL-PER-SIN utilizing one aircraft

ADL 0900 PER 1100 // 1300 SIN 1830
SIN 2030 PER 0200 // 0330 ADL 0730

Ideally the flight in to Singapore would arrive an hour (or 90 minutes) later with the departing flight earlier by the same amount. But then you have the question of what to do with the airplane sitting in Singapore. Note: This schedule should also work for O&D on the routes. Though I suspect the domestic uptake on PER-ADL would be challenging low.

For me, the proposed flight times PER-SIN-PER are not optimal. PER-SIN needs to be earlier so you can connect to decent onward flights into Asia if required. SIN-PER is far too late and I would not fly it on prinicpal (and I would be getting home at 03:30). The old QF77/78 times were good and these have been matched by the current SQ and 3K services. If you could get a second flight a day which were a mirror but ex SIN that would be best (a morning flight SIN-PER leaving at 08:00 (like the old QF72 and SQ have two morning flights) and a early evening flight PER-SIN leaving at 17:30 so you can get a days work in PER before flying off to SIN also like SQ).

 

[wandering_fred]

Re: QF considering PER-SIN - what is the required schedule?

For me, the proposed flight times PER-SIN-PER are not optimal. PER-SIN needs to be earlier so you can connect to decent onward flights into Asia if required. SIN-PER is far too late and I would not fly it on prinicpal (and I would be getting home at 03:30). The old QF77/78 times were good and these have been matched by the current SQ and 3K services. If you could get a second flight a day which were a mirror but ex SIN that would be best (a morning flight SIN-PER leaving at 08:00 (like the old QF72 and SQ have two morning flights) and a early evening flight PER-SIN leaving at 17:30 so you can get a days work in PER before flying off to SIN also like SQ).

I sympathize. However, a better QF schedule on PER-SIN would require two flights a day each way. exPER about 0700 and 1500. exSIN about 0900 and 1900. Or roughly the old schedule. Pragmatically speaking, the first pass is to convince QF that we should have AT LEAST one flight a day each way. And passing on passengers (in both directions) as a result of partner flights and code shares is a nucleus of money to ensure the flights are at least marginally profitable. This the timings which do this and permit (legal) tags to/from ADL.

Hong Kong on the other hand while desirable for USA connections is problematic for QF in that there really aren't all that many flights of interest exHKG which are not on CX metal. And being pragmatic again, neither CX nor QF are going to code share with each other.

HKG arrivals
BA 025 LHR 1315
BA 027 LHR 1640
AA 137 DFW 1805
JL 029 HND 1335
AY 069 HEL 1430

HKG departures
BA 026 LHR 2315
BA 028 LHR 2345
AA 138 DFW 1330
JL 026 HND 1515 (connects JL 002 SFO departs 0005)
AY 070 HEL 0025

The competition
ex HKG CX 137 departing 2205->0550+ CX 171 departing 1450->2235
ex PER CX 136 departing 0710->1510 CX 170 departing 2355->0745+

Based on connections you would have to consider
HKG 1930 PER 0315+
PER 0200 HKG 1000 or PER 1400 HKG 2200

The short answer is that there will be no good timings for ensuring connecting flights are easy.
O&D competition would suggest exPER 2330->0715 ex HKG 2300->0645

As a tag to the PER-SIN flights to permit connections then
ADL 0600 PER 0800 // 0930 SIN 1500 // 1630 HKG 1900
HKG 2030 SIN 0001 // 0130 PER 0700 // (QF 668) 0830 ADL 1130
with the ADL connections separate planes and flight numbers

The questions to be asked -
With the new PER terminal what will be the international to domestic connection times?
What are the passenger numbers wanting to connect in HKG to Europe (BA/AY)?

Happy wandering

Fred