QF B737 Replacement Competition

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Anyone with safety and/or moral concern if Qantas pick boeing 737 max? Or is it behind us now?
I think you're greatly over-estimating the number of people outside of this site that even know or care what plane model they're flying on, let alone make purchasing decisions based on that.

Skyscanner.com -> Sort by price seems to be the modus operandi for most people
 
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I would rather fly on E190s any day over A320s or 737s. The BA Embraer fleet out of LCY were my favourite planes to fly shorthall in Europe.
 
I think you're greatly over-estimating the number of people outside of this site that even know or care what plane model they're flying on, let alone make purchasing decisions based on that.

Skyscanner.com -> Sort by price seems to be the modus operandi for most people
Oh I am not estimating anything, I am just curious to see how the members of this forum feels about it. That' it.
 
My current guess is that since QF have 100+ A320 family aircraft on order, it would make sense for QF to simply order some more and keep the commonality across QF & JQ.

I do realised that there would be lots of expensive retraining to do.
 
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I think the A32x family make a lot more sense for QF. Jetstar already operate them, and QF already have a big order for XLRs in, and Airbus are religious about cross-family commonality between Airbus models.

On the other side, the 737 line is essentially at the end of it's life. The odds of Boeing making further evolutions of a nearly 60 year old design, especially after the MAX / MCAS disaster, is practically nil. The 321XLR is an exceptional product, with Jetstar already on board with the regular A32x, it's time for QF to rationalise what is an increasingly old and heterogeneous fleet around a common core family and reap the efficiency savings and unified passenger experience that comes with it.

Plus, as a passenger, I really like the A32x - even with Jetstar it's not a bad experience, and the AirAsia X A330 is always something I look forward to. Sadly, from the economy seat perspective, the 787 is really the only decent Boeing left in their product catalogue.

717 and 737s and leased Embraers: Replace the lot with A319/A32x

A330s - Replace with 787s in higher density config for busy routes. Increase fleet size to compensate for smaller A380 fleet.

Keep the QL Dash-8s - ultimately seek to replace with ATRs that are better supported and have better economics, but would treat as lower priority than the jets.

Keep the 787-9s

Keep around half the A380s for flagship routes. Retire the rest, replaced by the 787s with high capacity cabins.
 
I do realised that there would be lots of expensive retraining to do.
The 320/321/XLR are by far the best choice. But, that doesn’t mean they’ll be chosen. I’d expect that what you’ll see is that “safety is our first priority”, but only as a distant second to cost.

And there might be a lot less training than you imagine. QF has the better part of 20 years of Airbus experience, so with people who have been on the 330 and 380, there’s a very large cohort of people now on the 737 (or who‘d be looking at going to domestic) who already have that tick. Even the 320 had been flown by quite a few of the SO and FOs.

If I were buying, a future fleet would be A350s, A330 NEO, and the 320 family. 220s perhaps for regional, but not as a Dash replacement. Never the ATR. I’m not convinced about the need for the 787 amongst that mix. Boeing is not the company that it was, and its problems exist across multiple types.
 
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I can't see Qantas operating the A320. If Qantas goes to the A320, their fleet will be A320, A330, B787-9, A350 and A380. Boeing will give Qantas free B737-8/10s and B787-10s to ensure that doesn't happen. Alan Joyce knows what he's doing, he's just tightening the screws on Boeing to get the best price. It's not in his best interest to go all in on Airbus either. (Harder to play them off each other).

Edit: Future Fleet:
Domestic: B737 Max, A330
International: B787-10 (Asia), B787-9 (Long Haul, Lower Demand), A350 (Long Haul Higher Demand/Sunrise)
 
I flew on a couple of AA 737-8s before the accidents (in fact I I was on one of the first AA flights in Dec 2017 from LGA-MIA). I've got no safety fears with flying on them now - it's a bit like the Covid vaccines - never before has an aircraft model been subject to so much scrutiny, it's probably one of the safest aircraft types out there at the moment.

Delivery timeframes, price and type commonality with the 737NGs means it's almost inevitable Boeing will win.

If QF/JQ had common maintenance and flight crew might be easier for QF to operate a mixed fleet but I can't see that happening.
 
Re the 737 Max. I have zero issues getting on one. The most over tested and inspected and queried aircraft in the last few decades by far. Yes, Boeing stuffed up. Yes Boeing has some onegoing cultural issues endemic in this (and seem to have floated over to the 787 line in some respects) and they have a world of pain not only from the MAX crisis but the ongoing fallout of all of these things.

However this aircraft? I feel very confident about.

I was reading comments on (large well known social media site) regarding the announcement of the new Bonza LCC flop-to-be which will fly 7M8's and the amount of people ranting about the Max is somewhat surprising. In the end though, price will dictate that.

I wonder if the same people up in arms about the Max remember, for example, the 787 battery fires of 10 years ago, but have no issue getting on a QF Dreamliner today? Or go back to the development of the A320 in France back in the 80's where there were a number of crashes, some with pax on board. Nobody thinks twice about getting on one (I have a mate who used to carry around a piece of engine from one of these crashes in France he somehow got as reminder as to why avoid the 320 series. I think even he gave in and flies on them now :) ).

Now will the Max be a new Comet? Doesn't seem so. Been flying since last December with hundreds of flights daily and more and more coming on line without major incident. People too will forget this and get on them.

Sure I'll be aware, but I won't be alarmed or avoid it.


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re QF and airbus v boeing. This comes around every time a major order is on the cards. Previously I would have been confident that Boeing would be the winner - QF still has senior management wedded to Boeing for decades just became. However that loyalty is probably badly eroded by both the MAX issues and the now delays in the 777X program. Note how the A350-1000 selected for Sunrise is a clue.

There are valid arguments on both "sides" for the domestic fleet. Transition 737-800 -> 737 Max is quite straightforward. However the domestic A330 fleet, and pool of JQ crews with A3xx (plus any A380 tech crew still about) can use CCQ to transition to an A32x product. The 320s have a wider cabin and slightly longer range which may also be a factor. And, if QF decided to invest in the A350 fully then the 787's days may be numbered as they could then become a minority fleet type (and again international could CCQ between the 380-if it stays- and 350).

With 75 current 73H's on the park wanting replacement that is the bulk of QF tech crew trained on the 737, and Boeing will more or less want to throw them at QF - both to keep the association going, and the PR of keeping a major customer like QF on board, so a very good deal - and one presumes delivery slots would be easier to come by than the Airbus, and one could potentially phase in 737 Max for 737NG much more easily in terms of integration than mixing 32x and 737 (since you won't just swap the whole lot out overnight).

So, there are a bunch of factors involved here - even contemplating routes into the pacific and Asia from say PER and DRW to also consider (noting the 321LR order)

So, I can see this going either way. I would not at all be shocked to see it go airbus, but I think the 737 will probably wind up in QF livery. Just my tip.
 
So, I can see this going either way. I would not at all be shocked to see it go airbus, but I think the 737 will probably wind up in QF livery. Just my tip.

Biggest argument against Airbus is the fact they have a backlog of almost 6000 aircraft (around 10 years worth of production), so unlikely to be giving many discounts.

Boeing however is selling them like milk past its used by date.
 
I flew on a couple of AA 737-8s before the accidents (in fact I I was on one of the first AA flights in Dec 2017 from LGA-MIA). I've got no safety fears with flying on them now - it's a bit like the Covid vaccines - never before has an aircraft model been subject to so much scrutiny, it's probably one of the safest aircraft types out there at the moment.
Partial, untriplicated, sort of/maybe fly by wire, remains a worry. At the end of all of this testing, it still relies on only two AoA gauges, and the system for controlling runaway trim that had existed in every Boeing since Noah was delivering them, is still missing.
Delivery timeframes, price and type commonality with the 737NGs means it's almost inevitable Boeing will win.
Whilst you're probably correct, it would be a pity to be locked in to such a poor aircraft. And remember that QF does have around 100 XLR orders on the books, and they could still go anywhere.
Re the 737 Max. I have zero issues getting on one. The most over tested and inspected and queried aircraft in the last few decades by far. Yes, Boeing stuffed up. Yes Boeing has some onegoing cultural issues endemic in this (and seem to have floated over to the 787 line in some respects) and they have a world of pain not only from the MAX crisis but the ongoing fallout of all of these things.

However this aircraft? I feel very confident about.
See above.
re QF and airbus v boeing. This comes around every time a major order is on the cards. Previously I would have been confident that Boeing would be the winner - QF still has senior management wedded to Boeing for decades just became. However that loyalty is probably badly eroded by both the MAX issues and the now delays in the 777X program. Note how the A350-1000 selected for Sunrise is a clue.
I think that particular divorce happened in the early 2000s.

Biggest argument against Airbus is the fact they have a backlog of almost 6000 aircraft (around 10 years worth of production), so unlikely to be giving many discounts.

Boeing however is selling them like milk past its used by date.
And about as good as that milk too.
 
Sharing the current 737 fleet age to fuel the conversation:

2002: 15
2003: 6
2004: 3
2005: 5
2006: 4
2008: 5
2011: 10
2012: 6
2013: 12
2014: 5
2017: 2
2018: 7

From that, I think that finding delivery slots in A320 backorder to accomodate the fleet replacement shouldn't be a challenge. But switching would means about 15-20 years of heterogeneous fleet management, which seems a bit long. Pilot training is maybe not a big issue, after all pilots retire, new joins, that can be organically managed. But that's still 15 years of operational challenges: two pools of certified pilots, aircraft frame, maintenance, spare etc... At a time where the emphasis is on flexibility, my bet is that getting the 737 max is the best way to have that. Maybe by playing each manufacturers, AJ will get a good deal on the A220 for the other part of the fleet. Without knowing much, I would imagine this also aligns with the manufacturers priorities. Boing needs to flog it's max, Airbus needs to build an A220 backlog.
 
The 737 has not been a terrible aircraft for QF to be fair. By all reports and indications the 73H has been a great aircraft replacing the 733/734 fleet in turn. Now the Max is obviously more efficient. If the MCAS issues did not occur (so tragically) I think people would be fairly happy with it as a drop in replacement for the current generation of aircraft.

IMO the comment earlier about the 737 being at the end of its life as an airframe is pretty accurate. If not for the Max issues Boeing would probably have finalised the "NMA" concept (New Midrange Aircraft) - more or less a 757/A321 replacement. The 737-10 has less range than the A321, specially with the XLR variants, and this dos affect routes into SEA from Oz more than anything else - given your 73H can do SYD-DPS already so you can get anywhere in Aus with the current fleet which is the main purpose, plus of course NZ and near Pacific (eg: Fii). So the 321XLR has some appeal, specially for JQ, but possibly not for other purposes though they could open up secondary routes if demand were there.

The reality though is the 737 Max series would work fairly well for QF. I doubt they would go for the 737 Max 7 specially with the E190 showing promise in the 75-100ish seat capacity tat the 717 also fills more or less. The 737 Max 7 is slightly bigger but I think even VA found the 737-700 was possibly not the best fit for Australia either. The Max 8, 9 and 10 variants offer some flex though. I could see QF going for some Max 10's (I believe VA has ordered them?) as higher capacity for trunk routes to provide schedule frequency (yes I know we would all prefer 330's!).

Of course the 320 series offers options just as well and are more passenger friendly via the wider cabin of course. Will it be enough?

(while I have always been a Boeing person historically I'm not wedded to them these days and I absolutely can see the pros of going Airbus)
 
Is the ability to use containers for baggage in the A320 Series a real advantage or does the short turn around times on some of those flights negate their usefulness?
 
Is the ability to use containers for baggage in the A320 Series a real advantage or does the short turn around times on some of those flights negate their usefulness?

And a related point, the 737 Max has a greater MTOW and greater cargo capacity.

Qantas can turn around the 737NGs in 35 minutes. I think JQ have the same with their A320s. You're pretty much limited by what's happening up top (pax / cleaning etc) so further reductions below aren't going to make it much faster.
 
The 320 engine clearance from ground is a particularly unique factor vs 737 for certain operations. ULDs are handy, can lead to more equipment being required at otherwise remote ports but they can also be bulk loaded without containers
 
I'm not sure even QF know themselves, to be honest. The whole industry is in total disarray at the moment. I suspect management are caught in a dilemma about risking their finances by ordering in such a chaotic environment, and taking advantage of that same chaos to drive a hard bargain.
 
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