Qantas versus VA, it's about Qantas.

[markis10]

Interesting piece from a HKG based firm on the state of play, arguing the 787s should be in mainline domestic service and cancelling the remaining A380 orders, while VA might go SQ for their new j seating.

It’s about Qantas. | Aspire Aviation

Adding the 787-8 to Qantas Domestic’s fleet would narrow its cost gap with Virgin Australia considerably, as it is 6% more cost efficient per seat than an A330-200, according to AirInsight.

Additionally, Qantas should cancel its remaining order for 8 A380s – an airplane it has struggled to fill with a 50% load factor which has proved unsuitable for Qantas. Rather, it should take the refund from European plane-maker Airbus to weather the storm it is currently in. While the 245-tonne A330-300 would be a good fit for the potential destinations being eyed by Qantas International, such as Seoul, Tokyo Haneda, Mumbai, Delhi and Beijing, it would not be available until mid-2015.


The same holds true for the proposed Boeing 777X and A350-1000, which are a perfect replacement for Qantas’ last 6 747-400ERs that are being phased out in 2018. At least part of the 60 787-9 Dreamliners on options could be exercised in late 2014, although it is premature to speculate given the crisis at hand.

 

[maninblack]

Yes an interesting point of view. In this game of chess, one or two more smart ballsy moves by VA and one or two more bad ones by QF and the world could suddenly be turned upside down.

 

[moa999]

Based on those comments not going to bother reading.

QF barely flies the A330 domestically. Try 767/738

Don't believe that QF publishes load factors by type and would be very surprised if A380 load factors are at 50%, on its most popular Syd/Mel-lax/lhr/hkg routes

If you cancel the A380 not much of a refund, holding deposits are more. QF has heaps of A330s coming its way before 2015 - back from JQ

 

[markis10]

Based on those comments not going to bother reading.

QF barely flies the A330 domestically. Try 767/738

Don't believe that QF publishes load factors by type and would be very surprised if A380 load factors are at 50%, on its most popular Syd/Mel-lax/lhr/hkg routes

If you cancel the A380 not much of a refund, holding deposits are more. QF has heaps of A330s coming its way before 2015 - back from JQ

Huh, QF barely flies the A330 domestically??? On any given day there are more a330s operating than 767s, a situation that will only improve towards the a330 side. Qantas don't publish load factors by type but as per the article BITRE do in the form of city parings, you might want to read the article before commenting

FWIW I don't think the remaining A380s will come, they don't make sense as the author points out owing to route saturation, and offer little in the way of yield uplift on existing routes such as LOTFAP to Australia.

 

[boylero]

QF need a new leader i'm beginning to think

Sent from my Transformer TF101 using AustFreqFly mobile app

 

[sydstar]

Apart from possibly DFW, QF don't really seem have any routes that could support the 380. Maybe BNE-LAX?

Agree on the 787, JQ should be supplementary to QF and as such, get the hand me downs. 787 trans-con would be great! Looking at JQ load factors, when Japan is at 60-70%, surely that cannot be profitable regardless of aircraft!

Also, having just flown CX from HKG on a 330, I think QF might regret not having Y+ on the 330 refurbs. CX running a full cabin of 28 for the overnight flight

 

[samh004]

Read the article, thought it should have been noted more that they can't really compete on wage, despite trying to lower it, due to Australia costing more these days.

One has to ask whether the Australian economy is worse off with other carriers providing a majority of international services, some of which are reputable such as Singapore Airlines (SIA), Cathay Pacific and Emirates.

Qantas hasn't had a fatality (in a jet) since the dawn of the jet age, SIA has, Emirates likes to scrape their tail down runways and I think CX is about equal to QF. If Australians would prefer to take risks to fly overseas, so be it... but then, we know they do

QF need a new leader i'm beginning to think

But only if the board shares the same vision. Useless getting a new CEO if the board is the issue!

Agree on the 787, JQ should be supplementary to QF and as such, get the hand me downs. 787 trans-con would be great! Looking at JQ load factors, when Japan is at 60-70%, surely that cannot be profitable regardless of aircraft!

Also, having just flown CX from HKG on a 330, I think QF might regret not having Y+ on the 330 refurbs. CX running a full cabin of 28 for the overnight flight

I don't necessarily believe JQ should be receiving hand-me-downs, both airlines should be investing in the right aircraft for their operations. The problem is that the rumour that comes out time and time again is that there is funny business going on, maintenance done for free by Qantas on Jetstar's aircraft and perhaps QFi isn't doing as bad as people think, it's just got to look that way so they can transition to JQ.

Personally, I don't know what to believe. It's unlikely they'd mislead that much to push the idea of Jetstar being the better airline, because if the path ends with just Jetstar, eventually it wont be able to stand on it's own two feet. Then the whole thing falls over and you've got nothing.

Perhaps making Jetstar "public", with a majority share in it to keep it aligned would be the best idea, but then if there was something going on, it would be visible.

If the A380's really are too big for Qantas these days, what is suitable to replace them (and perhaps diversify routes a little)? They need an aircraft with commonality to existing fleet, ideally, for Asia, Europe and America routes. Could A380 orders be switched to A350's, and would they have the range, payload, capacity etc? Surely they'd be easier to fill, being smaller, but would they do better is the question. Or is a 787-9 a better idea, after all, with the only pilots on that type in Jetstar, you'd be able to recruit them into a much lower cost base.

I'm sure there was a thread that said the 787-8 isn't really suited to domestic routes, and if so, I don't think it should be removed from Jetstar just to be new bling for Qantas.

As for CX having embraced Y+, hopefully there's still time for QF to surprise us with J, Y+, Y on the A330's, despite perhaps what influence EK has over things. After all, if they are saying they're not interested in investing in QF, why should it matter that QF has Y+ and EK doesn't.

 

[Isochronous]

Read the article, thought it should have been noted more that they can't really compete on wage, despite trying to lower it, due to Australia costing more these days.



Qantas hasn't had a fatality (in a jet) since the dawn of the jet age, SIA has, Emirates likes to scrape their tail down runways and I think CX is about equal to QF. If Australians would prefer to take risks to fly overseas, so be it... but then, we know they do



But only if the board shares the same vision. Useless getting a new CEO if the board is the issue!



I don't necessarily believe JQ should be receiving hand-me-downs, both airlines should be investing in the right aircraft for their operations. The problem is that the rumour that comes out time and time again is that there is funny business going on, maintenance done for free by Qantas on Jetstar's aircraft and perhaps QFi isn't doing as bad as people think, it's just got to look that way so they can transition to JQ.

Personally, I don't know what to believe. It's unlikely they'd mislead that much to push the idea of Jetstar being the better airline, because if the path ends with just Jetstar, eventually it wont be able to stand on it's own two feet. Then the whole thing falls over and you've got nothing.

Perhaps making Jetstar "public", with a majority share in it to keep it aligned would be the best idea, but then if there was something going on, it would be visible.

If the A380's really are too big for Qantas these days, what is suitable to replace them (and perhaps diversify routes a little)? They need an aircraft with commonality to existing fleet, ideally, for Asia, Europe and America routes. Could A380 orders be switched to A350's, and would they have the range, payload, capacity etc? Surely they'd be easier to fill, being smaller, but would they do better is the question. Or is a 787-9 a better idea, after all, with the only pilots on that type in Jetstar, you'd be able to recruit them into a much lower cost base.

I'm sure there was a thread that said the 787-8 isn't really suited to domestic routes, and if so, I don't think it should be removed from Jetstar just to be new bling for Qantas.

As for CX having embraced Y+, hopefully there's still time for QF to surprise us with J, Y+, Y on the A330's, despite perhaps what influence EK has over things. After all, if they are saying they're not interested in investing in QF, why should it matter that QF has Y+ and EK doesn't.

When has QF ever said that the A330s won't have PE because of EK?

 

[JohnK]

QF need a new leader i'm beginning to think

That is spot on.

Current CEO is stale. Time for new blood and someone who has the energy to turn Qantas around rather than trying to destroy it.

 

[wandering_fred]

When has QF ever said that the A330s won't have PE because of EK?

The scuttlebutt of three or four years ago was that QF would simply never have Y+ on the A330s.
EK doesn't enter the discussion. In one of CX's surveys of that time period I mentioned the market for Y+ on the red eye flights exAsia to Australia.... This being about the time they were considering deploying A330s to Australia.

And QF also lost the plot when it was decided only overseas flights from SYD would ever make money...
As all the overseas airlines increase (double or more) their schedules into Perth.

Happy wandering

Fred