Qantas results 28Aug .

[RAM]

It is not impossible, although it seems the domain of - perhaps shall we say - less profit focused airlines. In recent memory there have been an (admittedly small) number of airlines that have added a small number of 777's to their fleet, the ones that come to mind are GA and PR but there are probably others. But most, particularly of QF's size or smaller seem to avoid adding too many types, with the exception of TG - who not exactly a beacon of profitability- who seem to want to collect one or two of just about everything that is flying (A300, 320, 330, 340, 380, 737, 747, 777, 787 and 350 on order)

An interesting and relevant data point - from the beginning of 2013 Boeing increased the production of B777s to 8.333 a month (so 100 a year).

Or in 18 months Boeing have produced more B777s (and sold them) than Airbus has A380s now into it's 8th year of 139 deliveries.

The airlines taking delivery in 2014 (66 planes from 1.1.14 to 31.8.14) are shown with the link below:

The Boeing Company

They range from Aeroflot to Emirates, AA, Air China, Cathay Pacific, Qatar and as you mentioned Thai and that dreaded competitor Biman Bangladesh Airlines for example.

 

[ajw373]

Q mgmt and board say that the A3xxs are similar enough that the model range is 'cost effective', with a similar claim on the Boeings. Q does not have any B777s though and that seems to be the $2.8bn question. Even TG has more B777s than B747s.

It is not that small a number of airlines that have added B777s to their fleet in fact have a look at this.

How about a like-for-like comparison - sounds fair.

Hmmm I wonder what the airlines flying the long haul into/out of Australia to Asia/Mid East/US are using mostly B747 or B777?

Air Canada - B777
Air China - B777
Air NZ - B777
Asiana Airlines - B777
British Airways - B777
Cathay Pacific - B777
China Airlines - B777
China Eastern Airlines - B777
China Southern Airlines - B777
Etihad -B777
Emirates - B777
Garuda - B777
Korean Air - B777
Qatar - B777
Royal Brunei - B777 (B787)
Singapore Airlines - B777
Scoot - B777
Thai - B777
United Airlines - B777

And of course;

Qantas B747

Well what do you know, every other competing airline is flying B777s over B747s on routes competing against Q out of/into Australia. Thanks for getting me to do the numbers.

I hit my 30 minute limit - please feel free to add other airlines I have not covered yet.

It does appear the B777 is PERFECT vs the B747 for virtually every other airline competing against Q AND they are flying them.

Qantas is the ugly duckling with this comparison.

Lets look hey? My comments in bold.

Air Canada - B777
Air China - B777 They have 46 A330's compared to 29 777's, of which the 10 200's are being replaced by more A330's Not sure what they fly to Aus though.
Air NZ - B777 Mostly A320 to Australia
Asiana Airlines - B777
British Airways - B777 Yeah and also the biggest 747 customer who has recently announced a refurb of 20 or so of their 747's
Cathay Pacific - B777 [Also a very large A330 customer, which operate most flights to Aus
China Airlines - B777 Actually they have NO 777's, they have some on order though. Big A330 customer though and still flying 747 not sure if to Aus
China Eastern Airlines - B777 As above but no 747's
China Southern Airlines - B777 12 compared to 30 odd A330's and A380's
Etihad -B777 Do they still operate the A340 to Aus? Plus big A330 customer not that they fly them to Aus though
Emirates - B777 And A380
Garuda - B777They don't fly these to Aus all flights are A330 plus 737 to Perth
Korean Air - B777 Fly A330's to Aus and have ordered 747-8's
Qatar - B777
Royal Brunei - B777 (B787)
Singapore Airlines - B777 Only on Syd and Melb, plus A330's and A380's
Scoot - B777Old SIA handme downs of course.
Thai - B777 Plus 747 to Aus and I think some A330's too, have no plans for 747 retirement yet and operate A380 long haul (not to Aus clearly)
United Airlines - B777 Only very recently

Hawaian - A330
Malaysian - A330 plus still think one flight to Mel on 777

So from what I can see is on routes to Asia Qantas is not really the ugly duckling, in fact I would say it flies the plane that I see the most common on intra-Asian flights (including Australia in Asia).

Long haul yes they don't operate the 777, they operate the A380 plus a handful of 747's to a few long haul destinations, which is not a surprise. Long haul Qantas would only benefit from the 777ER on a couple of routes, others they need the larger passenger capacity and of the A380 and 747.

 

[RAM]

None of those 4 aircraft are the BA ZX 767s that were mentioned. There is an easy way to work this out the ZX aircraft all have registrations starting with VH-ZX(Y). Not of the aircraft you've listed are ZX aircraft. The ZX aircraft also started leaving the fleet in Dec 2012, at least according to a thread here.

I fail to see how listing non-ZX aircraft supports your claim the ZX aircraft are still in the fleet.

Sorry medhead but you have cut, paste and claimed in error.

I never claimed ZX aircraft were in the fleet - that was the 'poster' who I was refuting the claim of fleet age which they included the NZ registered planes for. (Have a look back and you will confirm this).

I specifically said they can not be used to calculate Q mainline fleet age

The aircraft I listed are ALL Q metal.

 

[Mr_Orange]

What on earth has all this petty bickering got to do with Qantas results?

Can everyone stop double posting the same posts in different threads please? It's getting very boring!

 

[RAM]

Lets look hey? My comments in bold.

Air Canada - B777
Air China - B777 They have 46 A330's compared to 29 777's, of which the 10 200's are being replaced by more A330's Not sure what they fly to Aus though.
Air NZ - B777 Mostly A320 to Australia
Asiana Airlines - B777
British Airways - B777 Yeah and also the biggest 747 customer who has recently announced a refurb of 20 or so of their 747's
Cathay Pacific - B777 [Also a very large A330 customer, which operate most flights to Aus
China Airlines - B777 Actually they have NO 777's, they have some on order though. Big A330 customer though and still flying 747 not sure if to Aus
China Eastern Airlines - B777 As above but no 747's
China Southern Airlines - B777 12 compared to 30 odd A330's and A380's
Etihad -B777 Do they still operate the A340 to Aus? Plus big A330 customer not that they fly them to Aus though
Emirates - B777 And A380
Garuda - B777They don't fly these to Aus all flights are A330 plus 737 to Perth
Korean Air - B777 Fly A330's to Aus and have ordered 747-8's
Qatar - B777
Royal Brunei - B777 (B787)
Singapore Airlines - B777 Only on Syd and Melb, plus A330's and A380's
Scoot - B777Old SIA handme downs of course.
Thai - B777 Plus 747 to Aus and I think some A330's too, have no plans for 747 retirement yet and operate A380 long haul (not to Aus clearly)
United Airlines - B777 Only very recently

Hawaian - A330
Malaysian - A330 plus still think one flight to Mel on 777

So from what I can see is on routes to Asia Qantas is not really the ugly duckling, in fact I would say it flies the plane that I see the most common on intra-Asian flights (including Australia in Asia).

Long haul yes they don't operate the 777, they operate the A380 plus a handful of 747's to a few long haul destinations, which is not a surprise.

Thanks for picking up my error on China Airlines - I'm not sure what went wrong there.

However; Apples and Oranges again.

Point addressed - what is flown more into Australia by airlines competing directly with Qantas - B777s or B747s.

That was the question raised and answered. In the previous posting that I answered it did not mention A330s nor A380s just the B777 vs Q's choice.

I answered the qn which is used more into Aust - B777 or B747-400s.

On BA - they operate more B777s than B747s and have announced the scrapping of all B747s. To be replaced by, yes you guessed it B777s and B787s. Something that Q faithful would like to see as well. Looking at active fleet - BA has 46 B747s and 58 B777s. The number of 57 B747s in the article below refers to active, stored and written off but not scrapped.

BA says farewell to the jumbo as the plane with the hump looks set to be heading for the dump
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...s-set-to-be-heading-for-the-dump-8562576.html
"Flying passengers on an old and thirsty aircraft is an expensive business, which explains BA’s plans to retire its fleet of 57 jumbo jets. Some are being replaced by the Boeing 777-300, which can almost match the 747’s capacity. But the airline has indicated that the 787 aircraft ordered this week will replace the jumbo on a one-for-one basis – significantly shrinking passenger capacity."

Turning to your 'handful claim' for Q - as of last Friday Q had 'a handful' of A380s and more B747s than A380s. So that must be a larger handful no?

 

[mannej]

Sorry medhead but you have cut, paste and claimed in error.

I never claimed ZX aircraft were in the fleet - that was the 'poster' who I was refuting the claim of fleet age which they included the NZ registered planes for. (Have a look back and you will confirm this).

I specifically said they can not be used to calculate Q mainline fleet age

The aircraft I listed are ALL Q metal.

To be fair I made the comment on the ZX's based on an assumption that they were the aircraft being referred to. I have never seen the 4 OG's that were being referenced as that "young", hence why I incorrectly assumed the mention was to the ZX's.

I'll put my hand up for that one.

 

[ajw373]

What on earth has all this petty bickering got to do with Qantas results?

RAM has a weed on that Qantas doesn't operate the 777 and Jetstar operates the 787. Didn't realise he posted the same post in both threads, I have moved my response to that thread because it is a better place to discuss fleet issues.

http://www.australianfrequentflyer....rogram/qantas-fleet-31017-85.html#post1111582

 

[medhead]

Sorry medhead but you have cut, paste and claimed in error.

I never claimed ZX aircraft were in the fleet - that was the 'poster' who I was refuting the claim of fleet age which they included the NZ registered planes for. (Have a look back and you will confirm this).

I specifically said they can not be used to calculate Q mainline fleet age

The aircraft I listed are ALL Q metal.

I cut nothing and quoted you in full. That was your direct response to the post that mentioned the ZX aircraft.

That post said the ZX aircraft were long gone. Your response was that they were not long gone. But you then go on to list no ZX aircraft as your proof. If you don't wish to clear up the confusion created by that response, there is no need to make it personal.

 

[RAM]

So add 5 more to my total. Care to point any others errors in my figures. They are still higher than Jetstar by a long shot.

As for the metric what was being discussed here, not in Qantas fiscal reports is how many aircraft they have received in the past 5 complete fiscal years.

I stand by my figures with maybe a few minor mistakes (I am using an iphone at present internet access). They may not be what is in fiscal reports however the Qantas finances are so complicated you can read what you like into them and selectively quote what you like to suit your argument which is what you seem to have done.

My figures are from fleet lists and include Qantas link which is 100% part of QantS an of course jetconnect who again are 100% Qantas especially from an aircraft ownership perspective. My metric and the metric of the conversation has not changed and the fleet list quite clearly show Qantas has received more new a/c over the past 5 financial years.

Using your reasoning then you must include JetStar as they are part of Qantas as well.

Please answer this question:

If AJ and the Board (and airline ratings bodies) do NOT include the charter subsidiary and the NZ registered fleet in the Qantas MAINLINE fleet figures - how can you?

 

[RAM]

I might simply say if Qantas management (whose bonuses depend on profit) though the 777 or 787 would make more money than the 747 then they would have jumped on it.

Reality is a new type involves a whole list of things including: new pilot/ FA contracts, AOC approval, all the ops and technical manuals, pilot/ staff training, probably purchase of a simulator etc etc, plus the cost (interest+depreciation or lease) versus older (and probably paid for) 747s

And as for the early 787-8s there is a reason why Boeing is struggling to get rid of them. If Qantas wanted 787s it could have taken some from the slimmed down Jetstar order and/or activated its 789 options - which are all for latter manufactured aircraft.

It would have had to arrange financing for them and that with its ratings down-grades and falling NTA is not so easy.

 

[RAM]

I cut nothing and quoted you in full. That was your direct response to the post that mentioned the ZX aircraft.

That post said the ZX aircraft were long gone. Your response was that they were not long gone. But you then go on to list no ZX aircraft as your proof. If you don't wish to clear up the confusion created by that response, there is no need to make it personal.

Not correct. Nothing personal - I just like the facts not fiction. Perhaps you have not seen Post #246 - or you did not go back through the thread. Taking something out of context can lead to mistakes.

My Post #211 in response to Post #147 "Which "20+ year old aircraft" did you have in mind?
QF has very few aircraft of that age (mainly 767s, and only a few of them at that - which I'm pretty sure were already fully depreciated anyway)." I listed the 4 VH-OGI to OGM B767s that are still flying and over 20yrs for the B767s. 2 more B767s are now over 20 yrs as of today and as at 30.6.14 there were two more > 20yr old B767s still flying and since stored VH-OGG in July and VH-OGK in August; (at this point there had been no mention of the ZX aircraft by anyone).

then
ManneJ #214 misunderstood saying the 4 B767s I listed were ZXs (then in #246 he realised his mistake and acknowledged it)

then
In Post #216 I added the registration details to the table of 4 B767s I had originally listed in #211 to clarify the situation and show that they were not ZXs.

Now in Post #240 you combine ManneJ's post and place my Post originally in response to Post #147 and you state; "I fail to see how listing non-ZX aircraft supports your claim the ZX aircraft are still in the fleet." - as you appeared to be referring to my post - you were wrong.

You may have taken the word "they" in ManneJ's post to refer to the subject of my post responding to Post #147 (and updated in Post#216 when I added the regn details per B767 shown in #211).

I had not claimed (nor typed) ZX aircraft are in the fleet. If you look through the other posts I have argued exactly the opposite.

ManneJ has clarified his position.

Hopefully this clears things up.

 

[medhead]

Not correct. Nothing personal - I just like the facts not fiction. Perhaps you have not seen Post #246 - or you did not go back through the thread. Taking something out of context can lead to mistakes.

My Post #211 in response to Post #147 "Which "20+ year old aircraft" did you have in mind?
QF has very few aircraft of that age (mainly 767s, and only a few of them at that - which I'm pretty sure were already fully depreciated anyway)." I listed the 4 VH-OGI to OGM B767s that are still flying and over 20yrs for the B767s. 2 more B767s are now over 20 yrs as of today and as at 30.6.14 there were two more > 20yr old B767s still flying and since stored VH-OGG in July and VH-OGK in August; (at this point there had been no mention of the ZX aircraft by anyone).

then
ManneJ #214 misunderstood saying the 4 B767s I listed were ZXs (then in #246 he realised his mistake and acknowledged it)

then
In Post #216 I added the registration details to the table of 4 B767s I had originally listed in #211 to clarify the situation and show that they were not ZXs.

Now in Post #240 you combine ManneJ's post and place my Post originally in response to Post #147 and you state; "I fail to see how listing non-ZX aircraft supports your claim the ZX aircraft are still in the fleet." - as you appeared to be referring to my post - you were wrong.

You may have taken the word "they" in ManneJ's post to refer to the subject of my post responding to Post #147 (and updated in Post#216 when I added the regn details per B767 shown in #211).

I had not claimed (nor typed) ZX aircraft are in the fleet. If you look through the other posts I have argued exactly the opposite.

ManneJ has clarified his position.

Hopefully this clears things up.

It's all there in black and white. Very easy to read the post and your reply. If you meant something else perhaps it would have been good to write it.

 

[JohnPhelan]

On BA - they operate more B777s than B747s and have announced the scrapping of all B747s. To be replaced by, yes you guessed it B777s and B787s.
BA says farewell to the jumbo as the plane with the hump looks set to be heading for the dump

Actually, BA announced last week that it was refurbing 18 of its 747s, including completely new IFE systems. So it certainly has not "announced the scrapping of all B747s". More wishful thinking on your part.

The refurb will start next year and be completed in 2016. So it sounds like BA might be expecting the 747s to continue flying until about 2020 - much the same as QF?

British Airways to refresh 18 B747s - Business Traveller

 

[RAM]

Actually, BA announced last week that it was refurbing 18 of its 747s, including completely new IFE systems. So it certainly has not "announced the scrapping of all B747s". More wishful thinking on your part.

The refurb will start next year and be completed in 2016. So it sounds like BA might be expecting the 747s to continue flying until about 2020 - much the same as QF?

British Airways to refresh 18 B747s - Business Traveller

No, not wishful thinking just what has been said by BA themselves and also no - Willie Walsh explained the two announcements are complementary - and then went to spin.

Due to the competition for the delivery slots for the B787 (freed up a little thanks to Q) they cannot replace the B747s at a faster rate. Recognising that using the last 18 B747s (matching off against the last 18 B787s due for delivery) through to 2021 to be replaced will not be a competitive product for BA that is why they are being refurbished as a stop gap measure instead of leasing and fitting out a new aircraft.

There are no available B777 slots until 2018 (and the new B777 is due in 2020) and BA have converted their options on the B787 to firm orders and also to more of the B787-10s. The delivery time frame for the outstanding 34 B787s (22 B787-9 & 12 B787-10s) runs through to 2021. They got those slots for the B787-10 as a launch customer.
BA plans First Class for Boeing 787-9 and 787-10 - Flights | hotels | frequent flyer | business class - Australian Business Traveller
"We have a lot of long distance flights to premium destinations where we need a four-class configuration, and the -10 gets a lot closer to the capacity of the Boeing 747."
British Airways has 24 of Boeing 787 Dreamliners on order to arrive by 2017. The first eight of these are for the 787-8, with the first four being delivered this year and four more in 2014.

"From 2015 we're going to get another 16, these will be 787-9s but we can change some of those to the -10" van der Post said."

From my perspective I prefer the look of the B747 over the A380 any day, but from a {Q} profit perspective unless the A380s can get 80+% yield they are losing money whereas the B777-300s only require a yield around the high 60s to low 70s assuming a 50% use of other cargo capacity.

 

[ajw373]

No, not wishful thinking just what has been said by BA themselves and also no - Willie Walsh explained the two announcements are complementary - and then went to spin.

Due to the competition for the delivery slots for the B787 (freed up a little thanks to Q) they cannot replace the B747s at a faster rate. Recognising that using the last 18 B747s (matching off against the last 18 B787s due for delivery) through to 2021 to be replaced will not be a competitive product for BA that is why they are being refurbished as a stop gap measure instead of leasing and fitting out a new aircraft.

There are no available B777 slots until 2018 (and the new B777 is due in 2020) and BA have converted their options on the B787 to firm orders and also to more of the B787-10s. The delivery time frame for the outstanding 34 B787s (22 B787-9 & 12 B787-10s) runs through to 2021. They got those slots for the B787-10 as a launch customer.
BA plans First Class for Boeing 787-9 and 787-10 - Flights | hotels | frequent flyer | business class - Australian Business Traveller
"We have a lot of long distance flights to premium destinations where we need a four-class configuration, and the -10 gets a lot closer to the capacity of the Boeing 747."
British Airways has 24 of Boeing 787 Dreamliners on order to arrive by 2017. The first eight of these are for the 787-8, with the first four being delivered this year and four more in 2014.

"From 2015 we're going to get another 16, these will be 787-9s but we can change some of those to the -10" van der Post said."

From my perspective I prefer the look of the B747 over the A380 any day, but from a {Q} profit perspective unless the A380s can get 80+% yield they are losing money whereas the B777-300s only require a yield around the high 60s to low 70s assuming a 50% use of other cargo capacity.

Interesting no mention of the A350-1000 which BA has announced IS replacing some 747's and the remaining A380's. Not to mention pretty poor planning on BA's behalf if they weren't able to get slots for 747 replacements.

 

[Awesom Andy]

Not to mention pretty poor planning on BA's behalf if they weren't able to get slots for 747 replacements.

The 787 was supposed to have started flying a couple of years ago so not really BA's fault. If we bring the delivery timeline forward by 2 years, I doubt BA would bother doing any refurbs.

 

[ajw373]

The 787 was supposed to have started flying a couple of years ago so not really BA's fault. If we bring the delivery timeline forward by 2 years, I doubt BA would bother doing any refurbs.

All well and good but the 787 is not a 747 replacement aircraft or a 777-300 replacement for that matter. The 787-10 is about the same size and capacity as the 777-200, the -9 is about a A330-300 sized aircraft and the -8 sits in between the 767-300 and A330-200. Also bear in mind the -10 was only launched last year and when the 787 program was first mooted Boeing wasn't interested until pressured by Emirates. So don't see how the 787 delay makes a difference in this case. Besides BA ordered the 787-8's and 9's to replace mid haul 767's and capacity increases on some 777-200 routes. Plus of course BA ordered the 777-300ER to counter the 787 delays, though today still has 46 747's going down to 30 in about 4 years time. Just doesn't add up to your theory. nor that of RAM.

 

[straitman]

.... and time to go back to the topic please gentlemen.

 

[RAM]

Interesting no mention of the A350-1000 which BA has announced IS replacing some 747's and the remaining A380's. Not to mention pretty poor planning on BA's behalf if they weren't able to get slots for 747 replacements.

No mention of Airbus planes at all - covered your post about the refirb of B747s not meaning their demise.

No I did not mention the delay/deferral of BA A380s nor Order for A350s (which timing of arrival matches earlier analyst conference call question about retirement of old B777s before new B777 becomes available. The number of A350s ordered matches the numbers talked about for B777 replacements. What is said to analysts and posted with LSE I give more credence to.

What I did mention was the answer to your post.

 

[RAM]

Update on yields for Q A380s - in today's press

Qantas has cancelled five return A380 superjumbo flights over the next two months between Dubai and London because of weak demand.
Passengers on the cancelled flights will be put on another A380 service or an Emirates flight, Fairfax Media reports.
Qantas also cancelled three return superjumbo flights between Dubai and London in May.
"Like all airlines, Qantas adjusts its schedule to reflect seasonal demand. This simply means increasing during peak times and decreasing during quieter periods because it makes commercial sense," said a spokesman, pointing to a recent boost to flights between Melbourne and the US.

Wonder what they'll do with the status if swapped to Emirates metal?