Qantas Project Sunrise goes ahead, 12 new A350-1000s ordered

[RooFlyer]

They have kept the additional 2 daily LHR slot pairs, which is indicative that they intend to have 4x daily LHR.

General query, not necc related to Sunrise. Can you lease out slots (ie to other airlines), partic at LHR? Or would that trigger use it or use it?

 

[jase05]

Do BNE, ADL, DRW pax really want to fly to MEL to pick up a non-stop? Quicker via SIN.

Yeah, it will be interesting to see if they have anything lined up for other Australian ports. Sunrise is understandably designed to cater for the big 2 of SYD/MEL but for the rest of us taking a rubbish domestic connection kind of defeats the purpose unless cost is cheaper than the competition.
I’m guessing that with Sunrise flights the vast majority of passengers would be terminating at LHR as if going elsewhere in Europe it also kind of loses its competitive advantage unless you are wedded to QF

 

[elanshin]

Hah - the cobranding idea is not something I've considered. But doubt if Qantas would want to dilute their brand differentiation in such a way.

As for folks above suggesting sunrise Melbourne to London might not happen, I can't see why not. While Sydney has a clear advantage in terms of tourists visiting Australia, I doubt if that's the case for business flyers.

As much as syd-mel has it's rivalry, on the global stage Sydney generally much ahead of Melbourne and is still developing that way.

Both SYD-LHR and SYD-JFK would be in operation first and the data from that (and seeing how many people do MEL-SYD-either) would likely dictate the longer term future. Perhaps the response/yield isn't as good and they shift to replacing QF9/10 PER-LHR with the sunrise planes and run those at higher payload. They'd have a bit of time before they can launch the next routes anyways. I think they need at least 5? 6? Frames to comfortably do those rotations daily.

We need to see things now from a different perspective., with Qantas gearing up to offer two types of service between the same city pairs: one premium and direct, the other volume and indirect. In fact, one way to consider it might be as almost two airlines: one premium and the other mid-tier.

The hub model still works for volume: it's more efficient because it allows greater loading on flights because one departing flight from an Australian city feeds multiple final destinations.

But for business/premium passengers, direct is much better.

It depends on more than just the direct part. The time savings is only meaningful dependent on the schedule.

As LHR is also timing restricted, if both QF flights arrive at 6am, assuming current QF1 SIN timings departing at 4pm vs 7/8pm isn't as drastically different. There will be demand, but i don't think all the business travellers are going to shift to a350 just because it's direct. New and shiny - maybe for the richer corporates.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Yeah, it will be interesting to see if they have anything lined up for other Australian ports. Sunrise is understandably designed to cater for the big 2 of SYD/MEL but for the rest of us taking a rubbish domestic connection kind of defeats the purpose unless cost is cheaper than the competition.
I’m guessing that with Sunrise flights the vast majority of passengers would be terminating at LHR as if going elsewhere in Europe it also kind of loses its competitive advantage unless you are wedded to QF

Except that this will now = 1 stop to anywhere in Europe using connections on BA. Cathay, Japan, Singapore and the like can only offer one stop to select major cities in Europe. Swiss, Lufthansa and Finnair have extensive European networks, but you’re at two stops by then (SIN or asia and the euro hub).

 

[jase05]

Except that this will now = 1 stop to anywhere in Europe using connections on BA. Cathay, Japan, Singapore and the like can only offer one stop to select major cities in Europe. Swiss, Lufthansa and Finnair have extensive European networks, but you’re at two stops by then (SIN or asia and the euro hub).

Yes but from ADL is 2 stops to elsewhere in Europe when we can go EK or QR 1 stop.
Once TK gets direct flights to IST from MEL/SYD in 2-3 years that will also open up a massive market of 1 stop possibilities for those who want to look outside of OW.
Would be nice to see a bit of a price war (wishful thinking)

 

[RooFlyer]

Except that this will now = 1 stop to anywhere in Europe using connections on BA. Cathay, Japan, Singapore and the like can only offer one stop to select major cities in Europe. Swiss, Lufthansa and Finnair have extensive European networks, but you’re at two stops by then (SIN or asia and the euro hub).

Granted, but the QR, SQ and TK (once direct flights to IST begin) networks to other European cities are pretty extensive, a bit better than 'select majors'. And if you have to backtrack from LHR to your European destination on BA, it defeats the 'non stop' and 'time saving' thing about Sunrise. SO, very much UK destination focussed.

Turkish: (I'm not going to count 'em each!)



QR:



BA:

 

[evanb]

General query, not necc related to Sunrise. Can you lease out slots (ie to other airlines), partic at LHR? Or would that trigger use it or use it?

Yes, LHR slots can be leased or sold. Currently Qantas have 4 daily slot pairs, 2 of which are leased to BA. LHR slot lease agreements include penalty clauses to ensure that the lessee utilises them such that the slots are maintained.

This is unique to the UK. In almost all countries slots can't be sold or leased for economic considerations.

 

[dajop]

I’m guessing that with Sunrise flights the vast majority of passengers would be terminating at LHR as if going elsewhere in Europe it also kind of loses its competitive advantage unless you are wedded to QF

To an extent. Although there is also an argument for a single long haul with a short hop bejng more flexible than a one stop mid journey, in terms of sleeping patterns (thinking the J/F cabins here ). I know out of SIN (as my origin point) if involving overnight trip I prefer non stop to Europe then a short hop than via Middle East which breaks the journey into two. But granted we’re talking 7+7 vs 13+2 vs Sunrise which is 14+7 vs 20+2 hours or thereabouts.

But TK could be the wildcard in conpetiton with sunrise ex SYD/MEL as IST is that little bit further than DXB and DOH.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

To an extent. Although there is also an argument for a single long haul with a short hop bejng more flexible than a one stop mid journey, in terms of sleeping patterns (thinking the J/F cabins here ). I know out of SIN (as my origin point) if involving overnight trip I prefer non stop to Europe then a short hop than via Middle East which breaks the journey into two. But granted we’re talking 7+7 vs 13+2 vs Sunrise which is 14+7 vs 20+2 hours or thereabouts.

But TK could be the wildcard in conpetiton with sunrise ex SYD/MEL as IST is that little bit further than DXB and DOH.

And this is where qantas ‘loyalty’ comes in!

As an ultra premium - and likely oneworld - passenger, you want to fly Turkish, or Qantas?

 

[levelnine]

There is absolutely a market for a QF SYD/MEL (if Qantas Int could find MEL on a map) - SIN - LHR service with a lower price than PS services. Plenty of people actively want a break and many will always prefer Qantas over an Asian or middle eastern carrier - whether it’s points, food, entertainment, service style. The PER western gateway nonsense will disappear well before the traditional kangaroo route.

Sunrise is going to steal many of the price insensitive corporates and wealthy because of the convenience factor. Indeed, that's the whole point of these planes and why they are so premium heavy.

Once you take out those high yielding passengers, the SIN service becomes uneconomical. They're now competing with a range of carriers for largely price-sensitive customers. The number of people who are blindly loyal to Qantas yet unwilling to stump up for a non-stop flight or accept a one-stop via PER is vanishingly small. That's why Qantas has cut SIN-LHR from 2x A380s to 1x A380. And that's without Sunrise!!

 

[jase05]

And this is where qantas ‘loyalty’ comes in!

As an ultra premium - and likely oneworld - passenger, you want to fly Turkish, or Qantas?

Yep, it’s a huge advantage for them.
Personally I just can’t justify the price difference but for those who are locked in to QF I’d suggest they probably don’t even look at other options

 

[RSD]

Convert them to all Y and send them to JQ to run Double decker Bintang Expresses

That has to be the winner for comment of the day! The Balinese are already shuddering at the thought! I think all Y on an A380 means something like 800 bogans on the Bintang Express - yikes!

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Sunrise is going to steal many of the price insensitive corporates and wealthy because of the convenience factor. Indeed, that's the whole point of these planes and why they are so premium heavy.

Once you take out those high yielding passengers, the SIN service becomes uneconomical. They're now competing with a range of carriers for largely price-sensitive customers. The number of people who are blindly loyal to Qantas yet unwilling to stump up for a non-stop flight or accept a one-stop via PER is vanishingly small. That's why Qantas has cut SIN-LHR from 2x A380s to 1x A380. And that's without Sunrise!!

But i don’t know whether you’ll need the Perth non-stop then?

Deploy the 787 somewhere else where you could do a return in 24 hours, maximising yield.

The state capitals can funnel via SIN.

 

[RooFlyer]

As an ultra premium - and likely oneworld - passenger, you want to fly Turkish, or Qantas?

Not withstanding that I wouldn’t exactly describe myself as ultra premium (although I do do 2 to 3 trips annual to Europe these days in J) I’d be perfectly happy to fly Turkish - price and schedule are considerations for me, never ‘loyalty’.

But yes, many will jump at any Qantas flight offered, and pay for it.

 

[Doddler]

As much as syd-mel has it's rivalry, on the global stage Sydney generally much ahead of Melbourne and is still developing that way.

Melbourne has more conference visitors annually than Sydney. It's the biomedical and in many ways the broader tech capital of Australia. But true that Sydney is Australia's financial and overall corporate capital, and us science/tech nerds don't get the corporate travel budgets of our investment banker friends

As LHR is also timing restricted, if both QF flights arrive at 6am, assuming current QF1 SIN timings departing at 4pm vs 7/8pm isn't as drastically different. There will be demand, but i don't think all the business travellers are going to shift to a350 just because it's direct. New and shiny - maybe for the richer corporates.

One allows for a full day's work before departure, the other one doesn't. That can make quite a difference when you're trying to finalise your plans prior to a big overseas negotiation.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Not withstanding that I wouldn’t exactly describe myself as ultra premium (although I do do 2 to 3 trips annual to Europe these days in J) I’d be perfectly happy to fly Turkish - price and schedule are considerations for me, never ‘loyalty’.

But yes, many will jump at any Qantas flight offered, and pay for it.

Well yes, but you are perhaps an ‘educated’ frequent flyer Plenty of folk have ‘never heard’ of Turkish, with all the questions and doubts that come along with that!

It’s going to be interesting to see the fares.

 

[levelnine]

But i don’t know whether you’ll need the Perth non-stop then?

Deploy the 787 somewhere else where you could do a return in 24 hours, maximising yield.

The state capitals can funnel via SIN.

Qantas has said that PER-LHR is among the airline's best performing routes, so I'm not sure why you'd sacrifice it over SIN-LHR when SIN-LHR currently requires the premium traffic from SYD/MEL, which will be stolen by Sunrise.

Qantas' competitive advantage is the ability to offer non-stop routes. It is no surprise that's what makes it the most money. Indeed, they said as much in their 2025 Annual Report: 'Long-haul point-to-point markets continue to provide portfolio-leading earnings outcomes' (p 22).

 

[dajop]

Qantas has said that PER-LHR is among the airline's best performing routes, so I'm not sure why you'd sacrifice it over SIN-LHR when SIN-LHR currently requires the premium traffic from SYD/MEL, which will be stolen by Sunrise.

Yeh,, Qantas has consistently said that about PER-LHR and I agree that it certainly looks like remaining on the back of strong O&D traffic. But it remains to be seen with the sunrise flights, how much will they cannibalise existing premium traffic on QF1/2, how much they will steal from others in the QF ecosystem (such as EK, CX, MH and even QR) and how much they will steal from SQ and others.

 

[jase05]

Qantas has said that PER-LHR is among the airline's best performing routes, so I'm not sure why you'd sacrifice it over SIN-LHR when SIN-LHR currently requires the premium traffic from SYD/MEL, which will be stolen by Sunrise.

Qantas' competitive advantage is the ability to offer non-stop routes. It is no surprise that's what makes it the most money. Indeed, they said as much in their 2025 Annual Report: 'Long-haul point-to-point markets continue to provide portfolio-leading earnings outcomes' (p 22).

Yep, it’s definitely the way forward for QF.
Be interesting to see what their end game is and how many Sunrise destinations they end up with in 5-10 years time. Maybe LHR, CDG and FCO might be it

 

[levelnine]

But it remains to be seen with the sunrise flights, how much will they cannibalise existing premium traffic on QF1/2, how much they will steal from others in the QF ecosystem (such as EK, CX, MH and even QR) and how much they will steal from SQ and others.

That's certainly possible, but the end result is simply that it makes QF's SIN-LHR route even more vulnerable to a capacity war. You start trying to steal customers from a bunch of much bigger competitors, you know who's going to lose. Just ask Virgin when it tried to fight a capacity war in the domestic market with a much bigger competitor (QF).