Qantas Project Sunrise goes ahead, 12 new A350-1000s ordered

[SYD]

I don't expect the 380 to go away anytime soon on the current QF1/2 route utilising SIN as a major hub for other cities to connect to.

The a380 in of itself is still a standout aircraft to fly in and plenty will want to do this journey rather than direct. It's not one or the other.

But when they go, the non Sunrise A350s will have a lot less seats, so justifiable to maintain non-stop and one stop.

 

[Doddler]

It’s not a question of the A380s going - they won’t. It’s a question of how Qantas configures and markets them, and the implications of that. Qantas has basically stated that the Sunrise flights will be for their premium passengers, and the one-stop flights will cater for volume of other passengers.

 

[SYD]

It’s not a question of the A380s going - they won’t. It’s a question of how Qantas configures and markets them, and the implications of that. Qantas has basically stated that the Sunrise flights will be for their premium passengers, and the one-stop flights will cater for volume of other passengers.

There’s a 2nd tranche of non-sunrise A350s coming that WILL replace the A380s. So they’ll need a mix of sunrise and one stop to maintain current capacity.

Qantas to Replace A380 with A350-1000 Starting Early 2030

Australian carrier to introduce Airbus A350-1000 on key international routes as Singapore and Los Angeles

www.airdatanews.com

Yes, they could swing those A380s off to other routes towards the end of life like they did with the last B744s. They’re already on JNB. No idea if SCL could support one and there’s been speculation of HND, but apparently there are limits for A380s there. Of course HKG has seen A380s also.

 

[jase05]

Yes, they could swing those A380s off to other routes towards the end of life

Convert them to all Y and send them to JQ to run Double decker Bintang Expresses

 

[evanb]

There’s a 2nd tranche of non-sunrise A350s coming that WILL replace the A380s. So they’ll need a mix of sunrise and one stop to maintain current capacity.

Qantas to Replace A380 with A350-1000 Starting Early 2030

Australian carrier to introduce Airbus A350-1000 on key international routes as Singapore and Los Angeles

www.airdatanews.com

Yes, they could swing those A380s off to other routes towards the end of life like they did with the last B744s. They’re already on JNB. No idea if SCL could support one and there’s been speculation of HND, but apparently there are limits for A380s there. Of course HKG has seen A380s also.

I think that's been misreported. The 2nd tranche of A350-1000s won't be replacing the A380s, rather they're part of the A330 replacement order. 12x B787s and 12x A350s (non-ULR) to replace most of the A330s with a few of the younger A330-200s getting a refurb. These start arriving in 2027, well before A380's slated retirement between 2030 or 2032.

In addition to the 12x B787s and 12x A350s there are options that are slated to replace the A380s and remaining A330s from 2030 or 2032. So it's more like the 3rd tranche and a long way down the line still.

 

[elanshin]

I wonder if the 777X are an option as an plane they'd use for 380 replacement after they see it roll out and initial teething issues.

 

[evanb]

I wonder if the 777X are still in thought as an plane they'd use for 380 replacement after they see it roll out and initial teething issues.

No reason why it wouldn't be considered. Qantas did a fair bit of work on the B777X during the Project Sunrise evaluation, so they have a good understanding.

Ultimately, what's running against it is Qantas coalescing around two widebody types. Would the benefit of marginally larger aircraft (B777-9 isn't that much bigger than the A350-1000) justify the fixed costs of another fleet type and would the fleet be large enough to justify the fixed costs?

 

[levelnine]

Qantas say a lot of things that they don't end up doing. At the end of the day, it will be economics that drive the decision.

My prediction is Qantas will do well with the direct Sunrise flights & struggle with the one-stop flights via SIN, ultimately dropping them.

Once you're doing a one-stop service, you're competing against a whole host of airlines that offer better products and/or lower prices combined. It helps explain why Qantas' capacity into LHR has reduced over time in favour of non-stop routes to Europe from PER — that's where it's competitive advantage lies.

 

[dajop]

Qantas say a lot of things that they don't end up doing. At the end of the day, it will be economics that drive the decision.

My prediction is Qantas will do well with the direct Sunrise flights & struggle with the one-stop flights via SIN, ultimately dropping them.

I remain sceptical that we’ll see sunrise services between MEL and LHR despite them being mentioned originally (in favour of double daily from SYD and SYD-CDG perhaps) , and as such the via SIN service will pivot to MEL-SIN-LHR to serve MEL, BNE and a new A321 service from ADL.

 

[elanshin]

I remain sceptical that we’ll see sunrise services between MEL and LHR despite them being mentioned originally (in favour of double daily from SYD and SYD-CDG perhaps) , and as such the via SIN service will pivot to MEL-SIN-LHR to serve MEL, BNE and a new A321 service from ADL.

There was rumours the sunrise planes as is are already on the edge of operational capabilities from SYD (possible payload restrictions needed) MEL might push it out of range.

 

[evanb]

I remain sceptical that we’ll see sunrise services between MEL and LHR despite them being mentioned originally (in favour of double daily from SYD and SYD-CDG perhaps) , and as such the via SIN service will pivot to MEL-SIN-LHR to serve MEL, BNE and a new A321 service from ADL.

They have kept the additional 2 daily LHR slot pairs, which is indicative that they intend to have 4x daily LHR. Given the rush over the past few years to dispose of non-core assets (or should we say push by financial markets to do this), it seems like they're holding for a reason. But I also don't think that PS's network is cast in stone either. So much focus on the new routes without recognising that nearly half the fleet will go to replacing payload restricted B787-9s!

 

[levelnine]

(in favour of double daily from SYD and SYD-CDG perhaps) , and as such the via SIN service will pivot to MEL-SIN-LHR

Whether it is 2x SYD-LHR or MEL-LHR + SYD-LHR, I can't see them maintaining four services into LHR (2x Sunrise, PER-LHR and SIN-LHR). The trend for Qantas has been to reduce capacity into LHR.

 

[evanb]

There was rumours the sunrise planes as is are already on the edge of operational capabilities from SYD (possible payload restrictions needed) MEL might push it out of range.

Of course its payload restricted, the question is how much and weather their configuration is fully accounting for this. It likely is within their mission envelop, just like the B787-9's config was optimised for the payload restriction on westbound PER-LHR.

MEL-LHR is a touch shorter than SYD-LHR. When considering current airspace limitations (Russia and Ukraine), it's actually meaningfully shorter. Different story to JFK, although MEL-JFK is shorter than SYD-LHR.

 

[dajop]

There was rumours the sunrise planes as is are already on the edge of operational capabilities from SYD (possible payload restrictions needed) MEL might push it out of range.

Sounds like an excuse as MEL and SYD are more or less the same distance from LHR (MEL is actually 70 mi closer).

 

[dajop]

Whether it is 2x SYD-LHR or MEL-LHR + SYD-LHR, I can't see them maintaining four services into LHR (2x Sunrise, PER-LHR and SIN-LHR). The trend for Qantas has been to reduce capacity into LHR.

They reduced capacity because they simply couldn’t compete with the plethora of other one stop services, but the differentiation this time is non-stop. Of course to be seen how much of a differentiator this will be.

 

[levelnine]

They reduced capacity because they simply couldn’t compete with the plethora of other one stop services, but the differentiation this time is non-stop. Of course to be seen how much of a differentiator this will be.

That's exactly my point! My prediction is SIN-LHR will not survive long-term for precisely this reason.

 

[Quercus]

There is absolutely a market for a QF SYD/MEL (if Qantas Int could find MEL on a map) - SIN - LHR service with a lower price than PS services. Plenty of people actively want a break and many will always prefer Qantas over an Asian or middle eastern carrier - whether it’s points, food, entertainment, service style. The PER western gateway nonsense will disappear well before the traditional kangaroo route.

 

[moa999]

It’s not a question of the A380s going - they won’t. It’s a question of how Qantas configures and markets them, and the implications of that.

Tend to agree.

Most obvious change would be removing the F cabin and replacing it with Y. Think it's something like 74 Y seats that could fit in that front cabin.
As I suspect F pax in particular will be attracted to the far superior and quicker F on the 350s.

Maybe you could even roll out 3-5-3 seating as proposed by Airbus for the A380plus and cobrand it as a virtual cabin with Jetstar with commensurate service.

 

[Doddler]

Tend to agree.

Most obvious change would be removing the F cabin and replacing it with Y. Think it's something like 74 Y seats that could fit in that front cabin.
As I suspect F pax in particular will be attracted to the far superior and quicker F on the 350s.

Maybe you could even roll out 3-5-3 seating as proposed by Airbus for the A380plus and cobrand it as a virtual cabin with Jetstar with commensurate service.

Hah - the cobranding idea is not something I've considered. But doubt if Qantas would want to dilute their brand differentiation in such a way.

As for folks above suggesting sunrise Melbourne to London might not happen, I can't see why not. While Sydney has a clear advantage in terms of tourists visiting Australia, I doubt if that's the case for business flyers.

We need to see things now from a different perspective., with Qantas gearing up to offer two types of service between the same city pairs: one premium and direct, the other volume and indirect. In fact, one way to consider it might be as almost two airlines: one premium and the other mid-tier.

The hub model still works for volume: it's more efficient because it allows greater loading on flights because one departing flight from an Australian city feeds multiple final destinations.

But for business/premium passengers, direct is much better.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

There is absolutely a market for a QF SYD/MEL (if Qantas Int could find MEL on a map) - SIN - LHR service with a lower price than PS services. Plenty of people actively want a break and many will always prefer Qantas over an Asian or middle eastern carrier - whether it’s points, food, entertainment, service style. The PER western gateway nonsense will disappear well before the traditional kangaroo route.

There’s also the award seat issue, including uogrades.

They are a powerful incentive for QF’s FF program. The new 350s might fill up with paid F, leaving very little in terms of awards (potentially the same for business class too).

The A80 could continue to provide those seats, and revenue as well as connections from across australia to London. Do BNE, ADL, DRW pax really want to fly to MEL to pick up a non-stop? Quicker via SIN.