Qantas orders six more 787s, plans to retire all 747s by 2020

[Himeno]

More 787s isn't surprising. Getting rid of the 744ERs in 2020 is. Everyone expected them to go in 2022-2025.

I guess they'll get to early 2020 as the 6 787s start coming and decide they can keep the ERs longer.

I don't think they can just walk away from the 8 380 orders that they have deferred. Transferring them to another type will have to come into the mix sooner or later.

Convert to 320NEOs to replace, along with existing A320 order, all current Qantas group narrow bodies?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Following the US3 modern "capacity discipline" approach to airline profitability? Throttling capacity = reduced supply = higher prices = higher profitability.

Yep

Airlines are sick of the low fares and race to the bottom. Strong corporate account management, play the yield game well and those cheap fares disappear much quicker

Sad for us. Hopefully there are still airlines out there enjoying the environment of today... Fat chance given oil will rise again some day

 

[jb747]

Presumably this might come as a shock to a few pilots who had planned to retire in the mid-20s

The management of the pilot numbers will be very interesting. Basically, if they are on the 747, they are reasonably senior. That doesn’t mean that they’ll retire though. Being forced off an aircraft allows them to literally look at anyone junior and push them out of their slot. So, for instance, half of the 747 pilots might choose to displace pilots on the 380. They, in turn will look around, and choose who to displace. In theory it could throw up hundreds of retraining slots. Some of the shiny new 787 pilots could well be pushed off their aircraft, as they’re generally quite junior.

Alternatively, they could end up offering VR whilst simultaneously desperately trying to recruit.

 

[Himeno]

Alternatively, they could end up offering VR whilst simultaneously desperately trying to recruit.

Sounds like what work did in 2016. Give out VRs because they were changing the operating model of a department, then 3 months later, work out that they got rid of too many people and ask a lot of them to come back.

 

[dajop]

Sad for us. Hopefully there are still airlines out there enjoying the environment of today... Fat chance given oil will rise again some day

That’s where the Middle East carriers come in .... high oil prices = lots of money available to be injected into the airline = lots of capacity Counter cyclical to most airlines.

 

[Cult of one]

My first ever international Flight was on a 747. I loved it.

It was huge for me as a kid I remember thinking that if all the seats were taken out we could play cricket in there.

 

[dajop]

My first ever international Flight was on a 747. I loved it.

So was mine, although I was in my early 20's. I loved it too. In economy on the upper deck, with 3 seats between the 2 of us, it was amazing (BA, MEL-PER-SIN-LHR). But ... it was all downhill from there. coming back was my second experience, we got split up, I got a middle seat in the smoking section (but thankfully found someone to swap with in non smoking ...) not quite so nostalgic after that experience.

 

[daft009]

My first ever international Flight was on a 747. I loved it.

so was mine. was a SQ flight from Singapore to Sydney. The day we migrated to AU, during the recession we had to have.

I still remember the plane taxing over the bridge which goes over a road (general holmes drive?) and thought I'd arrived somewhere special

 

[BAM1748]

My first ever international Flight was on a 747. I loved it.

.

And for me as well, and on QF.

Remembering when QF was an all 747 airline.

 

[agentgerko]

Following the US3 modern "capacity discipline" approach to airline profitability? Throttling capacity = reduced supply = higher prices = higher profitability.

Not true. QF have finally accepted that people want direct flights from A to B, without having to change to a connection at some major hub. It's the main reason carriers like Emirates and Etihad are so successful, because you can bypass big ports like Heathrow and Frankfurt and fly onestop into places like Venice, Edinburgh or Minsk. QF are never going to fly a 747 into these smaller cities and the A330 doesn't have the range, whereas the 787 gives them the ability to try new routes that were never supportable in the past. And I think they'll cancel the existing A380 order, cop the penalties (they've got plenty of cash these days) and order the 777x. Ordering the A380 was always a mistake for QF with just far too few routes able to be profitable with an aircraft of that size and capacity.

 

[moa999]

I also don't think this is a 1:1 replacement.
Remember you've also got a potential Project Sunrise order

 

[Must...Fly!]

Not true. QF have finally accepted that people want direct flights from A to B, without having to change to a connection at some major hub. It's the main reason carriers like Emirates and Etihad are so successful, because you can bypass big ports like Heathrow and Frankfurt and fly onestop into places like Venice, Edinburgh or Minsk. QF are never going to fly a 747 into these smaller cities and the A330 doesn't have the range, whereas the 787 gives them the ability to try new routes that were never supportable in the past. And I think they'll cancel the existing A380 order, cop the penalties (they've got plenty of cash these days) and order the 777x. Ordering the A380 was always a mistake for QF with just far too few routes able to be profitable with an aircraft of that size and capacity.

So a hub model beat a hub model, then...

As for the A380s, they'll never come, on that you are right. But not sure on copping the penalties. If they hold out long enough (if they can, depending on their contract), Airbus may not be interested in making any more and give some very good "encouragement" to consider some other Airbus family jets...does seem like the A320NEO (based purely on numbers), will appear with a red tail one day so an all-Boeing fleet seems unlikely.

 

[oz_mark]

Not true. QF have finally accepted that people want direct flights from A to B, without having to change to a connection at some major hub.

Not sure that Qantas have finally accepted it. They have had to deal with Australia's geographical position, and the limitations of what can be achieved with the aircraft of the time.

It's the main reason carriers like Emirates and Etihad are so successful, because you can bypass big ports like Heathrow and Frankfurt and fly onestop into places like Venice, Edinburgh or Minsk.

And given where Australia is located in the globe, Qantas weren't in much of a position to use the same model.

I think they'll cancel the existing A380 order, cop the penalties (they've got plenty of cash these days) and order the 777x. Ordering the A380 was always a mistake for QF with just far too few routes able to be profitable with an aircraft of that size and capacity.

Or they'll convert them to A350 orders.

 

[PJF]

This comment makes me shake my head from AusBT...

View attachment 124665

Shakes my head also there must be something in the water over there

 

[PJF]

"which they never crash"

Yet.

Another famous quote. Titanic "the unsinkable ship"

 

[Himeno]

Or they'll convert them to A350 orders.

The A350-900ULR has the range QF wants for Project Sunrise, but doesn't have the load capability. The 777-8X has the load requirements, but not the range.
I think it's more likely that Boeing will create a 777-8LR for QF, and the remaining 8 A380 orders and 4 options will get converted to 330NEO to start replacing the classics, or more A320s in order to have enough on order to replace the entire Qantas Group narrow body fleet with A320NEOs.

 

[dmgale1960]

I flew back from HKG last night (2 May 18) on QF128 on a 747. I could talk about the 3 hour delay in leaving HKG, or the 2+ hour we spent taxiing slowing around the airport..... another day perhaps.

The plane itself was well worn. The Business class seats were very very tired and the cabin felt dull....

I was happy to experience the 747 for this trip, but I think that its time they were retired.

 

[PJF]

I flew back from HKG last night (2 May 18) on QF128 on a 747. I could talk about the 3 hour delay in leaving HKG, or the 2+ hour we spent taxiing slowing around the airport..... another day perhaps.

The plane itself was well worn. The Business class seats were very very tired and the cabin felt dull....

I was happy to experience the 747 for this trip, but I think that its time they were retired.

That was OEG (FlightRadar24) 15.4 years old at least it wasn't the good old warhorse OEB 24.9 years old

 

[dajop]

Not true. QF have finally accepted that people want direct flights from A to B, without having to change to a connection at some major hub. It's the main reason carriers like Emirates and Etihad are so successful, because you can bypass big ports like Heathrow and Frankfurt and fly onestop into places like Venice, Edinburgh or Minsk.

I'm not sure I follow, with Emirates - they are also just using a major hub, with a much better geographic location.

And if you look at many of routes QF's 747's currently do, I suspect they will continue, albeit with smaller capacity aircraft (notwithstanding possible frequency increases). Thinking SYD-SCL, SYD-JNB, BNE-LAX-JFK, SYD-HND (this last one may be relevant, there are more A to B flights with MEL/BNE-Tokyo flights). Aside from the game changing routes like "sunrise" routes from SYD to LHR and JFK, it's difficult to see what potential there is for a whole more "A to B" flights .... maybe more routes in Asia (eg BOM, ICN, TPE?), or US-bound BNE-SFO or BNE-DFW, SYD-ORD, but these are still connecting to hubs (AS @ SFO, AA at ORD/DFW).

 

[straitman]

I flew back from HKG last night (2 May 18) on QF128 on a 747. I could talk about the 3 hour delay in leaving HKG, or the 2+ hour we spent taxiing slowing around the airport..... another day perhaps.

The plane itself was well worn. The Business class seats were very very tired and the cabin felt dull....

I was happy to experience the 747 for this trip, but I think that its time they were retired.

A three hour delay can happen with any aircraft. Two hours taxiing around the airport sounds like an ATC issue and nothing to do with a/c type and a tired cabin has nothing to do with the mechanical operation of the aircraft. In fact update the interior and most people would have no idea of the possible age of the aircraft.