Qantas' Impending Change to Tokyo Flight Schedule

[evanb]

For context, QF wanted a380 to replace their 747 ops to HND after the 747 retirement. They couldn't work out a way to cleanly do it as it involved HND lifting some restrictions and hence we're at 330s.

There's been discussion before about a380 into HND. But without changing the status quo on HND restrictions it boils down to:
Bad landing times (dumping 300+ pax at 11pm with a very tight window for public transport seems ill advised)
Red eye Late night departure (~1am or so)

The big difference is that when they first considered it they only had one slot pair compared to the three they have now. That said, Sydney is expected to run overnight in both directions which allows the scope for the A380 within Haneda's slots. The challenge will be the daytime parking which undermines utilisation and runs into the need to agree to a special arrangement with the airport. In 2019, the bigger problem was utilisation. That's less of a problem now given that the A380s are fully depreciated and they're not rushing to push fly them to the US.

 

[evanb]

We don't have enough demand to justify 3 HND slots AND an a380 to NRT.

Remember it's not just QF servicing this route. JAL and ANA are also flying. The full service "premium market" is pretty full. If anything we have a big need for more LCC to NRT. Loads of friends flying cheap on one stops via HKG, CAN or PVG.

They currently have 4x daily flights to Tokyo that ran an 85% load factor over the last 12 months. Also helps that outbound demand to Japan has exploded in the last few years. In 2024 Japan surpassed the US as the 3rd largest destination for Australians.:

Chart of the week #22: Where Australians traveled in 2024

Now that we’re well into 2025 we’re starting to get the final data updates completing the 2024 calendar year.

www.analyticflying.com

Chart of the Week #3: Where are Australians traveling?

The US's loss is Japan's gain!

www.analyticflying.com

 

[justinbrett]

The underlying article clearly states it's speculation so there's no revelation here. The point that the article makes is that there isn't any good reason to delay the switch other than an aircraft change. What alternative hypothesis is there to delay the switch any further?

I did said there was nothing wrong with that, just that many may not know that it's your X account you are posting screenshots of.

Everybody is welcome to float their own theories, even if they seem wild to some.

 

[markis10]

The underlying article

Err Blog.

The point that the article makes is that there isn't any good reason to delay the switch other than an aircraft change. What alternative hypothesis is there to delay the switch any further?

They don’t have the aircraft given the lack of engine spares and the Finnair wet lease uncertainties presently being experienced.

 

[elanshin]

They currently have 4x daily flights to Tokyo that ran an 85% load factor over the last 12 months. Also helps that outbound demand to Japan has exploded in the last few years. In 2024 Japan surpassed the US as the 3rd largest destination for Australians.:

Chart of the week #22: Where Australians traveled in 2024

Now that we’re well into 2025 we’re starting to get the final data updates completing the 2024 calendar year.

www.analyticflying.com

Chart of the Week #3: Where are Australians traveling?

The US's loss is Japan's gain!

www.analyticflying.com

I suspect forward numbers are softening. We've seen sub $1000 Return airfares on ALL 3 carriers for the first time post covid this year. JL even downsize beyond what they previously ran (789 > 777 > 788).

What the market needs isnt more premium carriers, its more LCC.

 

[evanb]

They don’t have the aircraft given the lack of engine spares and the Finnair wet lease uncertainties presently being experienced.

They don't need more aircraft for the HND ops. It's a simple switch of the existing MEL-NRT and BNE-NRT flights to HND (they're even using the same flight numbers). Unless they add back a SYD-NRT flight it needs even fewer aircraft.

 

[Himeno]

They might change the NRT-MEL/BNE flight numbers. They changed the numbers for the SYD flight when they first moved it to HND.
The flight numbers used for NRT prior to the SYD-HND move, and extra adhoc SYD-NRT flights since then, are now used for MEL-DFW.

 

[DC3]

What alternative hypothesis is there to delay the switch any further?

 

[jpp42]

I suspect forward numbers are softening.

Yes, there have been some changes in Japanese monetary policy which allows small inflation (previously they had no inflation at all), and the AUD has fallen against the yen quite a bit recently as well. The combination is going to reduce the rush of Australian tourists most likely. However, with the US likely becoming a less palatable destination, it's possible that might offset this a bit as Aussies look for somewhere else to holiday.

 

[markis10]

They don't need more aircraft for the HND ops. It's a simple switch of the existing MEL-NRT and BNE-NRT flights to HND (they're even using the same flight numbers). Unless they add back a SYD-NRT flight it needs even fewer aircraft

Who said more, as I said the uncertainty with the wet leases and current maintenance issues means they are unlikely to make changes in the interim. Not a great look to make changes then start cancelling flights.

 

[evanb]

Who said more, as I said the uncertainty with the wet leases and current maintenance issues means they are unlikely to make changes in the interim. Not a great look to make changes then start cancelling flights.

They've been making plenty of changes and additions in recent months, particularly A330 fleet. It hasn't stoped them elsewhere.

 

[markis10]

They've been making plenty of changes and additions in recent months, particularly A330 fleet. It hasn't stoped them elsewhere.

Sapporo seasonal addition was it as far as newish events which was announced before Finnair went off the rails, just look at the issues this week with their Japan flights.

 

[Himeno]

Looks like this got missed.
QF asked IASC to alter their existing Japan allocations to allow joint services with AY and AF.
Looking at the actual letter from QF, they are asking for codeshare rights AY/AF AU-TYO and QF TYO-HEL/CDG to start from end of may or "as soon as approved"

 

[half-hour]

Looks like this got missed.
QF asked IASC to alter their existing Japan allocations to allow joint services with AY and AF.
Looking at the actual letter from QF, they are asking for codeshare rights AY/AF AU-TYO and QF TYO-HEL/CDG to start from end of may or "as soon as approved"

Does this mean Qantas is shuffling around flights on paper to keep the slot alive, without actually physically changing any flights?

 

[markis10]

Does this mean Qantas is shuffling around flights on paper to keep the slot alive, without actually physically changing any flights?

No flight shuffle, just getting codeshare for connections to Europe with increased Air France ops, probably suggesting they will drop CDG

https://www.iasc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/20250505-qf-letter-to-the-iasc-france.pdf

https://www.iasc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/20250415-qf-letter-to-the-iasc-japan.pdf

 

[justinbrett]

probably suggesting they will drop CDG

Big assumption. They already codeshare with AF from SIN.

 

[Himeno]

No flight shuffle, just getting codeshare for connections to Europe with increased Air France ops, probably suggesting they will drop CDG

https://www.iasc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/20250505-qf-letter-to-the-iasc-france.pdf

https://www.iasc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/20250415-qf-letter-to-the-iasc-japan.pdf

They aren't going to drop CDG when that first link is to a letter where QF is asking to be allowed to put a AF code on the SYD-PER-CDG flight.

 

[Himeno]

Does this mean Qantas is shuffling around flights on paper to keep the slot alive, without actually physically changing any flights?

no, they would be trying to use TYO as another 1 stop connection option to Europe with the EU-JP sector operated by Air France and Finnair.
Air France flies to HND, but not NRT. Finnair flies to both. By asking for an AF code on the AU-HND flights, and then a QF code on AF HND-CDG flights it seems that they are trying to increase the demand for a 3rd HND flight with pax from Europe.

 

[jrfsp]

no, they would be trying to use TYO as another 1 stop connection option to Europe with the EU-JP sector operated by Air France and Finnair.
Air France flies to HND, but not NRT. Finnair flies to both. By asking for an AF code on the AU-HND flights, and then a QF code on AF HND-CDG flights it seems that they are trying to increase the demand for a 3rd HND flight with pax from Europe.

Unless pax wanted a Japan stopover, its not a compelling routing to Europe at the moment with the closure of Russian airspace.

 

[justinbrett]

Unless pax wanted a Japan stopover, its not a compelling routing to Europe at the moment with the closure of Russian airspace.

Very marginal difference compared to via SIN; return trip from SYD is 47.6 hours via HND, 42.75 via SIN (block time). Less than 5 hours extra on a round trip.

But with that you get access to 2x daily AF flights to CDG, and in time, 3x daily flights to SYD/BNE/MEL.

QF only codeshares on 1/2 SIN-CDG flights as it has no flights that can connect to the other.