Qantas faces being gutted and restructured around Jetstar model: aviation expert

[NM]

from news.com.au:

QANTAS will no longer exist in its current form if the downturn that is crippling the industry lasts another six months, one of Australia's leading aviation experts has claimed.

Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation director Peter Harbison said that a currently unprofitable Qantas faces being gutted and reconstructed around a more profitable Jetstar model.

What do the "aviation experts" at AFF think?

 

[Mal]

That NoNews Ltd needs to get a life and stop publishing innuendo that can only damage Qantas.

Yes Qantas will be different, however the current headline "Qantas 'dead in six months'" is sensationalist and incorrect.

Qantas are much better placed to deal with this than other carriers in oneWorld and also other major carriers around the world. We will see capacity cuts, plane deferrals, union negotiating to freeze wages, and sell off of unnecessary equipment.

The biggest worry is the unions and their wildcat strikes. If they go feral, then Qantas will be in deep trouble...

 

[Batesy]

Sensationalist cough by NEWS. As my granny used to to say what a load of codswallop.

 

[oz_mark]

Qantas are looking into whether they can replace some of the premium seats with lower classes. For example, swap some business class seats out and increase premium economy. This is more a reaction to the current market conditions than anything else.

The current configuration of 747's and A380's were good for the conditions 12 months ago, but not so good now. I guess that they are working the numbers on chaning cofigurations around and payback periods and all the normal stuff that goes with these changes.

Down the track, it is possible that the current configurations will again be good.

 

[docjames]

And again, more quality nonews.......

 

[anat0l]

Yes Qantas will be different, however the current headline "Qantas 'dead in six months'" is sensationalist and incorrect.

Qantas are much better placed to deal with this than other carriers in oneWorld and also other major carriers around the world. We will see capacity cuts, plane deferrals, union negotiating to freeze wages, and sell off of unnecessary equipment.

The biggest worry is the unions and their wildcat strikes. If they go feral, then Qantas will be in deep trouble...

NoNews Ltd aside, that is probably what could be construed as "dead in six months". Not that QF will be in receivership, but it'll look fairly dead as an airline. It may not be six months, although there is a sizeable number of people who believe QF should die (for its "sins") and six months is far too long.

Mind you, there have been quite a few airlines in history that have "rose back from the 'dead'" - MH, PR, UA to name a few - but the chances of this happening "successfully" for QF will be low. People are very much ready to jump off the red rat as it is and never look back, no matter what is going to happen.

None of what you mentioned is desirable and only a few people are going to be able to understand the situation. The rest, being "spoilt" after years of flawless Ansett (until they fell flat) and the supposed golden decades of true world renowned top notch service (now turned green by the current standards), are all saying QF completely brought this onto themselves and don't deserve to be an airline of merit, even though countless similar airlines (with an already established record of such incidents) around the world already exist.

As I've said, sometimes it's not good enough comparing yourself to the next person.

 

[Kendall Roy]

And again, more quality nonews.......

The Age isn't much better. What is with the anti-QF agenda?

Snakes killed after escaping on Qantas plane

On the Home Page, the title reads: Snakes on a (Qantas) plane killed

WOOPS! Better make sure people know it's QF so they actually read it... :evil:

 

[turtlemichael]

Next week.

Reptile torture: RSPCA commences action against Qantas over snake cruelty

followed by:

Passengers sue over snake fears

On the OP. the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation does seem to have a high profile. But I worry when an oganisation has "Best" awards each year and even awards one to best Aviation Minister. (Anthony Albanese)

 

[SeaWolf]

The Age isn't much better. What is with the anti-QF agenda?

Snakes killed after escaping on Qantas plane

I actually find this story quite funny, I don't this it's especially anti-QF, it's framed more as a curiosity piece.

But to go back to the original topic, there seems to be a vein in the discussion that QF is something more than it is. I know a lot of people here have strong brand loyalty to QF, but at the end of the day it's a business looking to make a profit, and the fact that the Jetstar division is making money and QF is not has got to be a strong factor in the managers' minds. Of course they are going to seek to gain that profitibilty across the board and they may well choose to do that by following the Jetstar path. Sure, it's not something that's desirable to luxury flyers, but that's a market that's serious shrunk over the last year, it's just not a source of profit anymore. It makes good business sense for them to focus on an area that actually is profitable.

 

[Dee Thom]

It appears the periodicle Mr Harbison works for may have a slump in sales, and needs a bit of sensationalism to flog a few more copies!
Qantas adjusting their J seats downwards, and upping Yplus is a good idea ( thought V Aus would have done this from day one ), as is cutting equipment and route frequency.
QF will be there for a long time yet!
Cheers,
Dee

 

[samh004]

I'm not an expert on these things, but I doubt Qantas is going to be doing any dying any time soon. I also doubt it'll turn into Jetstar. Doing so would mean the loss of a lot of premium passengers, even now in this recession and in the future when things get back to the frivolous way they were.

Not being a premium airline I reckon would hurt Qantas more in the long term. Can you imagine, no more First class, no more F lounge obviously. I doubt they'd last long in OneWorld.

The unions will be the straw that breaks the camels back, but restructuring and having more lower-classed seats will get them through this. It's not like it's going to be this way forever, things will eventually recover, we've just got to get through the bad times quickly.

Things are going OK now, though I'm sure someone will move a huge chunk of money again soon and make everything crash.

 

[Grandma's Wings "]

I've been a loyal Qantas Fan for more years than I can remember- Sure things have changed and the long haul Qantas Economy Inflight Service is not what it used to be . Everything in the industry has changed ... I feel this is only another hiccup along the way.. I'm sure there are other airlines much worse off than Qantas.

Qantas will never be the same as once was :-|.... but " The Flying Kangaroo " will be around for quite a long time to come... It's Iconic.... So I'm looking forward to my next Qantas Adventure to LAX in 37 days... Whose counting :?: Me..!!!!!

 

[Grandma's Wings "]

Oooops !!!! showing my age now but who among you remember the Qantas Flying Base @ Rose Bay. NSW. It sure was a great experience flying & landing through the waters of Sydney Harbour...

 

[harvyk]

It's more than likely still be around, probably doing things in a very similar way. There will still be 4 classes, and you'll probably still get something to eat + TV show in-flight.

When I saw the article all I could think was "QF really should have given that news ltd VIP a free upgrade". I don't think they are even attempting to hide their contempt for the airline anymore.

Problem is that there are people out there who read such articles and will be swayed by it, thus potentially creating a self for-filling prophecy.

 

[Mr Ed]

You can usually smell the journalist in the QC lounges and if not hear them asking for upgrades.

I still want a full service airline, hence I never pay bottom dollaar for fares.

 

[Keith009]

Whilst it is ridiculous to suggest that QF needs to be "gutted and reconstructed" within 6 months (it is undoubtedly one of the strongest airlines in the world financially), the notion that we're going to see less of the Red Rat and more of the Orange Star is a possibility that has a not insignificant ounce of truth to it going by what has already happened, even in boom times. This will not happen within 6 months, but the process has already happened and it's not stopping anytime (exhibit A: New Zealand).

However, as already mentioned - this then presents the Qantas Group with a dillemma. Gone is the edge the premium airline branding provides and the successful separation of the 2 brands. What might then happen is the often touted/feared model of QF becoming a "niche" airline offering only a handful of trunk routes (LHR, LAX etc) with JQ becoming the main airline of the Qantas Group. I see this as a worst case but not entirely improbable scenario.

OTOH such a view is also rather 2 dimensional and ignores the fact that the airline industry is a notoriously cyclical one. When (not if) the economy picks up and the good times come, there'd always be a demand for premium service airlines. The reconfiguring of aircraft to provide a more appropriate mix of seats is a good idea and provides the flexibility the airline needs in order to adapt to everchanging circumstances; "gutting and reconstructing" is a death sentence. Meanwhile as an example, it's also been rumoured on other forums like SQTalk that SQ is pushing hard for A330 deliveries as these aircraft apparently provide the right economics in the current hard times.

Just some musings from another armchair CEO.

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

I would have thought news corp, being so pro bush for 8 years, would have learned to keep quiet over busiens smatters

I think the Qantas group will survive for the long term. If governments would stop propping up their innefficient carriers and let market forces prevail the industry wouldn't be quite so cyclical.

The whole LCC revolution is a great thing to happen IMHO. Long gone are the days where 1 way flights cost you more than a return. Now if only the flag carriers would come to the party, travel woul become easier and cheaper

 

[simongr]

Problem is that there are people out there who read such articles and will be swayed by it, thus potentially creating a self for-filling prophecy.

What is a self for-filling prophecy? Is it like a self-fulfilling prophecy?

 

[Keith009]

What is a self for-filling prophecy? Is it like a self-fulfilling prophecy?

:mrgreen::mrgreen:

 

[pauly7]

OTOH such a view is also rather 2 dimensional and ignores the fact that the airline industry is a notoriously cyclical one. When (not if) the economy picks up and the good times come, there'd always be a demand for premium service airlines.

Just some musings from another armchair CEO.

I 100% agree.... again there seems to be the usual Chicken Little crowd running around in hysterics about the latest disaster. Demand has dropped therefore QF (and all airlines are responding).

Lets not forget it wasn't long ago QF couldn't get their new jets fast enough, now they along with many others are slowing the delivery rate down - it isn't a disaster it is good business sense. I completetly agree that with time the pax numbers will bounce back and I imagine QF will be one of the best airlines to take advantage of this.