Qantas cutting domestic capacity by 5%

[BD1959]

Buried in this report is news that Qantas are cutting domestic group capacity by 5% - affected passengers in the process of being contacted.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com/media-releases/qantas-group-market-update-april-2026

At times like this it pays to keep an eye on your booking with a view to have an alternative suggestion if QF come calling and your plans don’t align.

Regards,

BD

 

[Harrison_133]

Includes QantasLink flights to Mount Gambier being suspended completely.

Breaking: Qantas cancels flights between Adelaide and Mount Gambier amid fuel shortages

 

[Pushka]

Buried in this report is news that Qantas are cutting domestic group capacity by 5% - affected passengers in the process of being contacted.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com/media-releases/qantas-group-market-update-april-2026

At times like this it pays to keep an eye on your booking with a view to have an alternative suggestion if QF come calling and your plans don’t align.

Regards,

BD

Featured in The Australian just now. There are plenty of flights they could reduce with minimal impact.

 

[Saab34]

That’s up to a $800m increase in the fuel bill since the February H2 projection of $2.5b.

I believe this 5% was already baked into the schedules a few weeks ago that a few of us picked up on, they just didn’t announce it. Mainly just frequency reduction.

 

[Quickstatus]

Makes sense
Oil supply-demand imbalance. Input price goes up putting upward pressure on product price. Business then has to do a one or more of increasing prices, finding efficiencies such as rationalising routes, including reducing cross subsidies of marginally profitably routes. It understands that consumer spending might also be affected as consumer costs also increasing which may reduce flying demand and ability to absorb increased ticket prices. Eventually overall reduction in economic activity helps to fix the oil supply demand imbalance.

 

[Saab34]

Hopefully an update on VA shortly also, if the more favourable hedging/refining strategy they have is still in place, would be interesting to see.

FY27 is where the fun starts as both hedging strategies at both main carriers start to fall off, more so VA who come off it’s refining hedge and are not well hedged after mid year.

 

[eastwest101]

Just shows that it's important what exactly you do hedge, hedge the wrong thing or things go the wrong way, and you may as well be unhedged. Actually, you are worse off because you have incurred the cost of hedging, without any of the benefits/protection of hedging....

Looks like they hedged crude oil prices and not jet fuel prices, seems a peculiar hedge as I haven't yet seen an aircraft that can fly using crude oil?

Just shows that it's important what exactly you do hedge, hedge the wrong thing or things go the wrong way, and you may as well be unhedged. Actually, you are worse off because you have incurred the cost of hedging, without any of the benefits/protection of hedging....

Looks like they hedged crude oil prices and not jet fuel prices, seems a peculiar hedge as I haven't yet seen an aircraft that can fly using crude oil?

 

[mbe1510]

Group International unit revenue (RASK) growth for 2H26 is now expected to be 4 to 6 per cent, double previous RASK guidance. This includes the 50 per cent of revenue for 4Q26 that was sold prior to the conflict commencing.

And the international arm is holding up well in the conflict too.

 

[Saab34]

Just shows that it's important what exactly you do hedge, hedge the wrong thing or things go the wrong way, and you may as well be unhedged. Actually, you are worse off because you have incurred the cost of hedging, without any of the benefits/protection of hedging....

Looks like they hedged crude oil prices and not jet fuel prices, seems a peculiar hedge as I haven't yet seen an aircraft that can fly using crude oil?

View attachment 503716

The refining hedge is a significant investment, it’s a huge commitment for an airline with already significant financial commitments on the horizon with Airbus and Boeing. From what I can see QF hasn’t participated in refining hedging for a long time and it was only marginal when they did (10-20%).

VA is an interesting case here and they only started hedging against the refining margin a few years ago. I don’t know the ins and outs on where they secured funding for this, I assume from Bain, someone along the Private Equity chain would be making something from that no doubt. But it’s worked for VA and is going to save the balance sheet for this half. The next half they are somewhat screwed though.

 

[Jim3400]

Moving widebody capacity from INT -> DOM to make more money. What a fluff peice!

 

[CaptJCool]

Been tracking pricing for a few weeks now. Our to/from Easter saw light loads (50%ish) - the Sydney QC was very empty Tuesday night after Easter

So cutting 5% is very viable for them and the. They can consolidate two half empty flights into 1

RedE deal prices remain relatively static upto a fortnight out from flight day. QF are the more expensive option so when people vote with their feet… they fly elsewhere

 

[Harrison_133]

Jetstar suspending Sydney to Busselton from June to September.

Fuel costs see flights to WA tourist town suspended

Rising fuel costs due to the war in Iran see Qantas suspend Jetstar flights between Sydney and Busselton.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Saab34]

Not sure if any others but a few other suspensions

JQ Sydney to Busselton
JQ Darwin to Gold Coast

 

[jamesatfish]

Frequency of the Dash-8 between CBR and SYD has been trimmed. Arriving on QF12 on a weekday now gives you the option of a very tight 1:40 connection or a 5+ hour connection.

Given QF12 tends to be 15+ minutes late on a regular basis, if you're travelling with checked luggage look forward to an extended stay in the lounge in Sydney.

 

[tassie6]

We had a HBA-MEL cancelled next week which I assume is related, a bit annoying as was in the early afternoon and the only options to reaccommodate now on QF are 9am and 6pm, big gap in the middle of the day

 

[Aeryn]

Hopefully cutting frequency on high frequency routes and not elsewhere.

My next few QF flights (April and June) are all regional with no feasible alternatives will be expensive hit on non refundable accomldation if I cant get there or get home. So hope most cuts are on capital city runs where there is heaps of capacity.

 

[openseat]

Hopefully an update on VA shortly also, if the more favourable hedging/refining strategy they have is still in place, would be interesting to see.

FY27 is where the fun starts as both hedging strategies at both main carriers start to fall off, more so VA who come off it’s refining hedge and are not well hedged after mid year.

I noticed that the late Saturday evening flight SYD to ADL is no longer available. I used to take it occasionally and was looking for May, but no dice.

 

[Himeno]

Frequency of the Dash-8 between CBR and SYD has been trimmed. Arriving on QF12 on a weekday now gives you the option of a very tight 1:40 connection or a 5+ hour connection.

Given QF12 tends to be 15+ minutes late on a regular basis, if you're travelling with checked luggage look forward to an extended stay in the lounge in Sydney.

I booked a Japan trip for early-mid June last night. This morning I get an email saying that last flight of the trip (SYD-CBR) is delayed 2 hours. I guess it's related to this? Moved from QF1437 to QF1439. Extended to a 5 hour connection through SYD.

Looks like the only other options they are giving are flights later than 1439, taking the day flight south out of HND (not getting to HND that early with the transport issues before trains start) and an option to go via MEL with a 4 hour wait in SYD.

 

[transpactraveller]

I have a few flights between SYD/MEL/ADL in May. No email or other notifications yet that they've been changed, fingers crossed these will mostly be advance notice cancellations and it won't be last minute consolidations close to departure date.

 

[Peasant]

The refining hedge is a significant investment, it’s a huge commitment for an airline with already significant financial commitments on the horizon with Airbus and Boeing. From what I can see QF hasn’t participated in refining hedging for a long time and it was only marginal when they did (10-20%).

VA is an interesting case here and they only started hedging against the refining margin a few years ago. I don’t know the ins and outs on where they secured funding for this, I assume from Bain, someone along the Private Equity chain would be making something from that no doubt. But it’s worked for VA and is going to save the balance sheet for this half. The next half they are somewhat screwed though.

My understanding is that QF used to hedge the refined margin until they got quite badly burned during COVID. As there was very limited flying, particularly in this part of the world, those contracts ended up costing them dearly as there wasn't much use for Jet fuel. Damned if you do, damned if you don't, but a fortunate position for VA to be in.

Many airlines will tell you that they don't hedge to beat the market but for planning certainty. This is one of those examples.