Qantas and Dubai - what's really going on

[browski]

Emirates have 70 flights a week from Australia to Dubai. They will increase this to 84 flights this year.

Now we all know that a large proportion of these passengers don't have Dubai as their final destination. Most of the passengers fly onto Europe, Africa and other Middle East destinations.
I'm aware that Qantas codeshare with some Etihad flights to Abu Dhabi.

However, on the surface of things it looks like Qantas could easily fill a couple of flights a week to Dubai.

So...........does anybody know why they do not?

Is it because:
A. Dubai won't give them landing rights? (Seems unlikely)
B. They don't have aircraft to fly this far non-stop?
C. They feel Emirates would destroy them in a price (and quality of service) war?
D. They genuinely feel they could not fill aircraft. (Seems unlikely with the volume of Aussies living in Dubai and other Middle Eastern countries)
E. Spite. They hate Emirates more than SQ.

Thoughts are welcome because it has been puzzling me for years.

 

[anat0l]

C. They feel Emirates would destroy them in a price (and quality of service) war?
D. They genuinely feel they could not fill aircraft. (Seems unlikely with the volume of Aussies living in Dubai and other Middle Eastern countries)

I'm going to vouch for these two.

If these were not partially true then QF would have tried to do the Middle East effort alone rather than team up with EY and RJ.

Perhaps there are also politics involved as well (landing rights and all), but I wouldn't know and probably wouldn't think of that one first.

 

[moa999]

The issue is where does Qantas fly to from DXB and not have an empty plane

LHR passengers are already spread via SIN,BKK,HKG.


EKs advantage is they pool passengers from SYD, MEL, SIN, BKK, etc, etc.
and then offer connections to LHR, CDG, MAN, ...

 

[Travel Guru]

I think the main issue is that Dubai really isn't an end destination for the majority of passengers, its merely a stopover or transit point.

Until such time that changed, I dont see QF even showing any interest, and even then with the frequency of flights EK offers, how are QF going to compete?

TG

 

[Flying Fox]

I have often wondered about this too. I would have though that F & J loads would be good.

Could QF not code share on BA from DXB-LHR?

 

[markis10]

What advantage does QF get by going via the middle east apart from directly competing with cashed up airlines, if the route was that attractive then surely Emirates and others would not have cheap fares always on offer!

 

[dajop]

The issue is where does Qantas fly to from DXB and not have an empty plane

LHR passengers are already spread via SIN,BKK,HKG.


EKs advantage is they pool passengers from SYD, MEL, SIN, BKK, etc, etc.
and then offer connections to LHR, CDG, MAN, ...

Exactly. Why would QF want to replicate the hub they already have in SIN? EK has DXB, QF has SIN, and to a much lesser extent HKG ( I don't count BKK as hub as it only serves SYD & LHR). Whilst I am sure there are lots of Australians with an interest in the Middle East, I bet nowhere near as many as there are in Asia. And QF can barely make NRT work, doesn't fly to ICN, PEK, KUL or TPE at all, so how on earth would they make DXB work in its own right.

If anything you would see QF fly to AUH, and feed traffic on to Europe on Etihad, but why bother, when they can just slap a code on existing EY flights?

 

[Oneworldplus2]

But it is hurting QF, big time. They have lost alot of international passengers over the last few years.
As others have pointed out rightly in the past on this forum, why travel SYD-SIN-LHR-xx_ (Insert European city), when you can do SYD-DXB-xx_.

1 less stop, get there sooner + less connections. Oh, and a better price on Emirates (most of the time).


Just my 2 cents.

 

[auriga]

But it is hurting QF, big time. They have lost alot of international passengers over the last few years.
As others have pointed out rightly in the past on this forum, why travel SYD-SIN-LHR-xx_ (Insert European city), when you can do SYD-DXB-xx_.

1 less stop, get there sooner + less connections. Oh, and a better price on Emirates (most of the time).


Just my 2 cents.

But QF flying to DXB will not fix anything. They don't have any connecting network from DXB.

 

[markis10]

But it is hurting QF, big time. They have lost a lot of international passengers over the last few years.

If you did not have a full stop between those two statements you would have an oxymoron, the facts from their published traffic data certainly show that they are carrying a lot less international customers, for instance Nov 09 saw 482K carried versus 719K in 2004, perhaps last year is a bad figure to use given the GFC , for instance Nov 08 showed 623K, so yes they have lost a stack of international passengers.

But they are actually doing a lot better as a result of shedding unprofitable routes, with load factors up to 83% in Nov 2008 from 74% in 2004, you can see the shedding reflected in the available seat KM figures.

By not flying routes that are unprofitable Qantas has done very well in the last few years without the luxury of cheap oil behind it, if Air Asia cannot make the middle east work with the large Islamic population at its home base then QF has no chance, andfor all the advantages of flying direct its interesting to note that most still chosse to route via SIN and/or BKK/Malaysia, that would make it a three hop trip to Europe.

 

[dajop]

andfor all the advantages of flying direct its interesting to note that most still chosse to route via SIN and/or BKK/Malaysia, that would make it a three hop trip to Europe.

Aah how do you draw the conclusion around most choosing three hops via SIN/BKK/KUL? If you hadn't suggested Malaysia I would have assumed you were talking about QF. But if you include TG and SQ they do offer a fair range of destinations with only one transit (ie two hops) - namely - London, Paris, Frankfurt, Madrid, Oslo, Copenhagen, Rome, Manchester, Athens, Zurich, Amsterdam, Milan, Munich, Stockholm... EK do provide better secondary city though, including Hamburg, Nice, Venice and the various UK cities (and others I am sure), but QF have no hope of matching any of these, other than thru partnering.

 

[anat0l]

...QF have no hope of matching any of these, other than thru partnering.

Right.

QF only have one, which is FRA. That is operating on a 2-class old 747. Says a lot about how viable that route is.

QF also partner to provide connections to FCO and CDG on codeshares only.

I think that gives a good picture as to how viable QF really is in the direct Europe market. Compound that with the fact that QF used to operate these routes before withdrawing them, and the QF group is planning to make inroads again but on JQ! Now doesn't that say a lot?

 

[markis10]

Aah how do you draw the conclusion around most choosing three hops via SIN/BKK/KUL? If you hadn't suggested Malaysia I would have assumed you were talking about QF.

I am talking about the middle eastern competition which is the subject of the thread, if Dubai is really the great stop on the way to Europe as the OP suggests and QF is crazy to not offer a service then why do the middle eastern airlines offer anything but direct from Australia, none of the East Coast cities have an Emirates flight schedule that consists solely of direct flights for instance, making that non direct flight a three hop service to Europe.

 

[Dalescott]

As far as I'm concerned, yes to all of them. But mostly Qantas would be wasting their time going to the Dubai, or for that matter any where in the Middle East. As Travel Guru pointed out it's just a stop over point to Europe. But most people who fly EK, are going to Europe, and for me in particular ( I go twice a year) as I go to Newcastle or Glasgow. It is the fact that we can go to these places direct, and not by Heathrow ( A third world airport). My wife is Scottish, and we do not know of anybody who goes to Scotland or the north of England for that matter. Who doesn't fly EK, as it is direct and the quickest ( Scottish don't like the English). This is reflected in there airfare, and to my mind there introduction of the Mixed fare concept, as most people using this route( Newcastle or Glasgow) are over 50 years old. I believe that if any other carrier can get a route to Newcastle and in particularly Glasgow, they will pick up passengers, both economy and Business class. So Qantas take note start flying into Scotland and see your passenger numbers go up, and I mean directly into to Scotland either Glasgow or Edinburgh.

 

[ozscot]

So Qantas take note start flying into Scotland and see your passenger numbers go up, and I mean directly into to Scotland either Glasgow or Edinburgh

BA don't even fly anywhere but London from these airports so there'd be little prospect of QF doing so.

I'm in Edinburgh at the moment (from here originally) and came up from LHR yesterday afternoon on BA. Generally I've got a few days business in London with customers and then come up to Edinburgh for the weekend so arriving into Heathrow ex SIN or HKG actually suits me pretty well.

I must say I actually don't mind using LHR too much. I can get the HEX directly in to T5, go through a priority security queue and have as much time as I like in a top quality F lounge before an hour long domestic flight. Going out I'm on BA to the US so get an easy T5 - T5 transfer from my EDI flight.

Cheers,
Steve

 

[Logan^]

Personally I wouldnt fly via Dubai unless the fair is significantly cheaper than going via SIN or HKG. I just dont like 14-16 hours and then 6 hours to London, much prefere 8 hours then 12 especially in Y.

Plus it makes no difference to me as I go back to the Bristol in the UK and no one fly's there internationally.

 

[Mal]

BA don't even fly anywhere but London from these airports so there'd be little prospect of QF doing so.

I'm in Edinburgh at the moment (from here originally) and came up from LHR yesterday afternoon on BA. Generally I've got a few days business in London with customers and then come up to Edinburgh for the weekend so arriving into Heathrow ex SIN or HKG actually suits me pretty well.

I must say I actually don't mind using LHR too much. I can get the HEX directly in to T5, go through a priority security queue and have as much time as I like in a top quality F lounge before an hour long domestic flight. Going out I'm on BA to the US so get an easy T5 - T5 transfer from my EDI flight.

I don't mind LHR overall. T5 is actually a pretty pleasant experience all up, except when things are going wrong and it all goes to mess.

BA's neglect of cities other than London is well documented. It's like they don't actually care about UK/Ireland except for London (eg cuts to the domestic shuttles and dropping them quickly when there are IIROPS, removal of flights to Ireland except for some codeshares and BA1/3 that stopover in Shannon, no long hauls ex-any other cities etc).

Some of this would be based around union posturing (eg I'm sure that the union would have heavy demands on BA if they wanted to fly MAN-LAX/ GLA-SIN etc including laying over staff in MAN/GLA and all sorts of other pre-conditions), but when the likes of Emirates and Singapore Airlines have such coverage of other cities it does make you wonder why BA can't make it happen.

 

[Travel Guru]

I am talking about the middle eastern competition which is the subject of the thread, if Dubai is really the great stop on the way to Europe as the OP suggests and QF is crazy to not offer a service then why do the middle eastern airlines offer anything but direct from Australia, none of the East Coast cities have an Emirates flight schedule that consists solely of direct flights for instance, making that non direct flight a three hop service to Europe.

They may not offer solely direct services, but they do have a fair few...out of Sydney 2 or 3 services operate daily direct to DXB, out of MEL 1 or the 3 daily services are direct and out of BNE 1 of 2 daily services are direct, so there are plenty of 1 stop options using EK.

TG

 

[Fyfie]

Right.

QF only have one, which is FRA. That is operating on a 2-class old 747. Says a lot about how viable that route is.

I remember reading a while back that QF have good freight loads on the FRA run - hence why they don't use an A330-200 on the route (it can't carry the freight that a 747 can).

The biggest issue is fleet choice and stability of loads year-round... the freight helps to make a flight profitable in the low seasons/low pax loads... 747's are too big for a lot of routes, 767's too inefficient/dated for pax and A330's not enough freight... Hence why they ordered the 787's.

I'm with many of the other posters - Dubai is a transit city and not an end point for most passengers. I'm sure also for political reasons that QF want to stay clear of there (both the loss of face for admitting that Emirates got it right and negotiating with a government that's closely aligned with a key competitor).

Cheers,

Fyfie

 

[cosi]

It is the fact that we can go to these places direct, and not by Heathrow ( A third world airport)

Totally agree with Dalescott.

Being associated with the tourism industry in WA, Emirates flying direct into Perth has been the most significant event since the America's cup because they bring in so much traffic from all points beyond Europe and those passengers from the UK can avoid Heathrow.