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New flights - aircraft use

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Himeno

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With all these extra seasonal flights over xmas/new year (LAX, HKG, NRT, YVR) and extra flights starting next year (MEL-LAX, SYD-SCL, HND, possible continuing YVR service*, etc) will QF have the aircraft for the new/extra flights while 767s and 747s are getting retired and no confirmed new aircraft anytime soon other then the JQ A330 returns?

The August 2015 date for HND seems to match with when the last of the A330s get the new seats.
QF expects to return to profit this quarter, maybe an announcement soon of some of the 787-9 options being firmed up?

*QF has rights for 3 flights/week to Canada to be "fully utilized" by March.
 

spiredturnip

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The aircraft are to come from "utilisation improvements" in most cases. The 747s have come out of Singapore and while some have been retired, there is still slack in the fleet. YVR is, for all intents and purposes so far, a seasonal service. Reports have claimed the language in the IASC application/award suggests rights are desired throughout the year, but the application used the standard terminology as per every other route application (seasonal or otherwise) so it's a bit overeager to read anything into it.

Qantas still have 13 747s (7 -400ER, 6 -400) which operate:
SYD-HKG (1 aircraft/day);
SYD-LAX-JFK (3 aircraft/day - very rough since it shares a frame with the BNE-LAX service, so its likely less);
SYD-SCL (2 aircraft/day)
SYD-JNB (2 aircraft/day)
SYD-NRT (2 aircraft/day);
BNE-LAX (2 aircraft/day);

Meaning the current schedule, which is pre-any of the new/seasonal services/frequencies, requires 12 747s (very average, back-of-the-napkin calculation) leaving at least 1 surplus to cater for peak demand right off the bat. This is a very crude calculation so given the rotations, timing and actual utilisation it's more likely there are at least 2 and possibly closer to 3 aircraft available on any given day. The 747s have been ferrying in and out of HAECO recently so you would assume MX is up to date, which should allow Qantas to drive them a bit harder over Dec/Jan.

Given the above assumes daily frequency that would easily account for the extra SYD-SCL frame given the frequency boost is to four times weekly, and should provide an idea as to where the MEL-LAX and SYD-YVR frames would come from.

At the moment, it would appear the 747 will remain on either NRT or move to HND with an A330 picking up the new service. The 747 currently sits on the ground at NRT for 13.5 hours and Qantas did note they may adjust SYD-NRT timing, so this could reduce the frames required to somewhere in the vicinity of 1.5 but this would lose the competitive overnight timing of the current service in at least one direction.

Hope that provides a bit of an idea about how its going to work.
 
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Himeno

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YVR is, for all intents and purposes so far, a seasonal service. Reports have claimed the language in the IASC application/award suggests rights are desired throughout the year, but the application used the standard terminology as per every other route application (seasonal or otherwise) so it's a bit overeager to read anything into it.
Still, why ask for enough seats for 3 weekly flights when only 2/week are planned?
 

spiredturnip

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Still, why ask for enough seats for 3 weekly flights when only 2/week are planned?
I could only speculate, but it's not in itself uncommon - Qantas holds capacity allocations to Hong Kong and Papua New Guinea (to name two recently-renewed Determinations) in excess of its scheduled operations. It's been reported the ticket sales are for the balance of scheduled ski charters (eg. the services are operating anyway but the entire aircraft has not been fully chartered), in such case there may be a third frequency operating that is not available to the public - again, pure conjecture on my part. It may also be to provide flexibility should demand significantly outstrip supply and Qantas feel prudent to add an additional frequency (although that would be a nice motivator to start scheduled service!).
 

sydstar

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With all this increased utilisation over the next few months and limited spare aircraft, surely there must be the chance for major delays to occur?

With OJA being retired next week, there will be 12 747s left (9 refurbs and 3 non-refurbs). spiredturnips rough calculations pretty much places all of these aircraft in use (with a HKG 747), when considering the additional MEL-LAX and SYD-YVR.

It looks like HKG over December is a mix of 747s and 380s. With a HKG 380, that would mean 11 are in use? (6 for US, 4 for Europe and 1 for HKG?)

Surely an engineering fault on the 380 or a medical emergency like last week on QF8 could surely have a snowball effect across the entire network?

I'm sure QF have a contingency plan in place, but with likely high loads, even substituting a 330 to spare a 747 onto NRT would have the potential for major delays for pax
 

spiredturnip

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With all this increased utilisation over the next few months and limited spare aircraft, surely there must be the chance for major delays to occur?

With OJA being retired next week, there will be 12 747s left (9 refurbs and 3 non-refurbs). spiredturnips rough calculations pretty much places all of these aircraft in use (with a HKG 747), when considering the additional MEL-LAX and SYD-YVR.

It looks like HKG over December is a mix of 747s and 380s. With a HKG 380, that would mean 11 are in use? (6 for US, 4 for Europe and 1 for HKG?)

Surely an engineering fault on the 380 or a medical emergency like last week on QF8 could surely have a snowball effect across the entire network?

I'm sure QF have a contingency plan in place, but with likely high loads, even substituting a 330 to spare a 747 onto NRT would have the potential for major delays for pax

I wouldn't expect this to be too much of an issue - under the previous A380 flying roster there was at least one frame available (although this was often rotated through the fleet as wing and wiring modifications were completed) each week, and given the boost to SYD-HKG equipment over the holiday/CNY period I'd imagine this remains the case even with the added DFW flying.

MEL-LAX frequency is only increasing from seven to 10 times weekly, so not a considerable boost when considering aircraft utilisation. When including SYD-YVR, which is two times weekly, its not hard to imagine how that could be spread across the fleet to require only one aircraft. SYD-SCL will only be four times weekly with the frequency boost, so there is some slack there as well.

My earlier calculations also do not take into account the retiming of QF17/18 (which is currently QF107/108) so there’s some added utilisation gains there as well.

It's not unfair to say the fleet will be getting a bit of a workout over the coming months, but there should still be enough slack to manage regular delays and cancellations. The only situation where this may become an issue would be an event requiring the withdrawal of an aircraft for extended repairs, but that remains a risk under the currently flying schedule and is at a relatively minor (statistically speaking) risk of occurring.
 

Himeno

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When including SYD-YVR, which is two times weekly, its not hard to imagine how that could be spread across the fleet to require only one aircraft.
Does that account for the 36 hours between SYD-YVR and YVR-SYD?

My earlier calculations also do not take into account the retiming of QF17/18 (which is currently QF107/108) so there’s some added utilisation gains there as well.
They also expect to some how turn around a 747 at JFK in 55 minutes...

The QF8 medical divert last week required 2 days of QF11 747 subs and a SYD-MEL A380 position flight to recover the timetable.
 

spiredturnip

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Does that account for the 36 hours between SYD-YVR and YVR-SYD?

No it doesn't - but when including three SYD-MEL frequencies it would even out, but without knowing exactly how Qantas intend to rotate the fleet around the network over this period it's difficult to speculate further about how they intend to manage it. I'm brushing broadly to try and provide a bit of insight working only off of aircraft numbers and flying hours required.

They also expect to some how turn around a 747 at JFK in 55 minutes...

The QF8 medical divert last week required 2 days of QF11 747 subs and a SYD-MEL A380 position flight to recover the timetable.

I agree that's probably a bit optimistic. There's no doubt the summer timetable will be heavy in utilisation, but this isn't new for Qantas. Statistically, diversions and extended MX issues are rare and running an airline will always be a balance between maintaining operational spares and maximising revenue-making opportunities. This did happen at a time before the full transition into the summer timetable, and once that occurs hopefully Qantas will be able to more adequately shuffle its schedule to suit when all the pieces are in place. Qantas has also operated a heavy charter roster over the last week or two which has no doubt influenced its ability to reposition aircraft and recover passengers.
 

madrooster

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Qantas still have 13 747s (7 -400ER, 6 -400) which operate:
SYD-HKG (1 aircraft/day);
SYD-LAX-JFK (3 aircraft/day - very rough since it shares a frame with the BNE-LAX service, so its likely less);
SYD-SCL (2 aircraft/day)
SYD-JNB (2 aircraft/day)
SYD-NRT (2 aircraft/day);
BNE-LAX (2 aircraft/day);

SYD-SCL requires only 1 aircraft with some overlap on 1 day/week.

SYD-LAX-JFK only requires 2 aircraft. The SYD-LAX and LAX-SYD departures are the same time as BNE-LAX and LAX-BNE effectively.
 
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