Middle East Airspace Diversions/Cancellations

[prozac]

'Herald Sun' this morning is highlighting comments by energy analyst Saul Kavonic that given the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, by September if it remains closed Australia has the risk of 'two to three times more likely than (previously in) March/April', having some form of demand management or rationing.

Of course, upping the price is a form of 'demand management'.

Whether this would also affect airlines remains to be seen, but overall Australia imports c.90 per cent of its fuel across the three major categories of petrol, diesel and JetA1. Despite the Prime Minister's complacency, we are vulnerable.

It's hard to see the Iran v Israel/USA war ending tomorrow. Iran seems determined to control the Strait, and there's further risk (in the Red Sea?) from those Houthis.

The world is far less dependant upon Gulf oil now since the Hormuz closure earlier this year with supply being replaced by other sources. The other regional choke point of Bab-el-Mandeb between the Horn of Africa and Yemen / Djibouti is less about oil and more about global trade generally. Someone who has written about geopolitics for many decades and worth looking up is commentator F.William Engdahl.

 

[Melburnian1]

What is an example of this complacency? What could/should be doing extra in the short term?

While I don't want to veer off topic, the continuing failure to have 90 days' fuel (of all categories) in reserve is evident.

 

[elanshin]

The world is far less dependant upon Gulf oil now since the Hormuz closure earlier this year with supply being replaced by other sources. The other regional choke point of Bab-el-Mandeb between the Horn of Africa and Yemen / Djibouti is less about oil and more about global trade generally. Someone who has written about geopolitics for many decades and worth looking up is commentator F.William Engdahl.

While I don't want to veer off topic, the continuing failure to have 90 days' fuel (of all categories) in reserve is evident.

There's a separate thread about fuel crisis, but the tldr version right now is that its starting to be pretty clear that China is the reason we don't have a global oil crisis right now and they've pretty much single handedly absorbed the huge shortage so far.