Middle East Airspace Diversions/Cancellations

[FlyingKangaroo]

We are meant to fly to Paris end of month and back mid-April, revenue tickets in Y on VA operated by QR, and had successfully upgraded the DOH-SYD sector with points (will be a big pity to lose that mais c'est la vie).

With QR operating only a tiny handful of flights over the next few days and no plan in sight to resume even limited normal operations, we've been looking at alternatives this week but absolutely nothing makes sense or is worth the $4500+ per pax in Y just to meander around France and Switzerland for a few weeks, even factoring in one hotel stay that's not refundable.

Emirates is offering fee-free refunds for flights through the end of month and after combing through recent flight status history of each of the sectors, decided to book SYD-DXB-CDG-DXB-SYD with minimal layovers in DXB on a combination of flights that have all been operating daily over the last week. It's not a guarantee to get there, but the trip isn't worth spending more on, so if both QR and EK don't pan out, it was not meant to be.

In which case, we're also booking a refundable trip to Fiji as Plan C and will settle for coughtail commiseration as far away from Europe as possible.

Hooray for putting excess flights on the credit card whose statement period just started over.

 

[FlyingKangaroo]

Etihad appears to be looking ahead already at how they can try to convince people to book with them with more confidence once this is (hopefully soon) over...

 

[MEL_Traveller]

From Europe/UK, they would do free re-route, but not from anywhere else though.

Plenty of traffic on other forums confirming EK is doing the same for pax ex USA as well.

So maybe as far as EK is concerned it’s more extensive.

 

[FlyingKangaroo]

Intended Emirates schedule through March 28: Emirates Maintains Reduced Operation 15-28MAR26 — AeroRoutes.

For ex-Australia, this means, compared to normal:
SYD: reduced 3x --> 1x daily (CHC tag continues)
MEL: reduced 3x --> 1x daily
PER: 1x daily maintained
BNE: 2x --> 0, suspended until March 30, no souk for you

Over in NZ, DXB-AKL and SYD-CHC 1x daily maintained (link doesn't show CHC but confirmed via OAG; SYD-CHC has been operating throughout even on its lonesome anyway).

Full schedule tentatively to resume from March 29.

 

[elanshin]

I don't think we're going to see an "end" anytime soon.

More drone attacks on Dubai overnight. This is not "normal" as much as the Emirati are trying to downplay it for UAE and the rest of the region.

Ukraine is being asked for anti-drone help and technical abilities, should also say everything we need to to read between the lines about the situation.

 

[FlyingKangaroo]

Intended Emirates schedule through March 28: Emirates Maintains Reduced Operation 15-28MAR26 — AeroRoutes.

For ex-Australia, this means, compared to normal:
SYD: reduced 3x --> 1x daily (CHC tag continues)
MEL: reduced 3x --> 1x daily
PER: 1x daily maintained
BNE: 2x --> 0, suspended until March 30, no souk for you

Over in NZ, DXB-AKL and SYD-CHC 1x daily maintained (link doesn't show CHC but confirmed via OAG; SYD-CHC has been operating throughout even on its lonesome anyway).

Full schedule tentatively to resume from March 29.

Whoops, forgot about Adelaide. Everyone always forgets Adelaide. Sorry, Adelaide.

Also, no souk for you either. Service suspended until March 29.

 

[Seat0B]

Full refund for cancelled VA (QR) flight for Seat Daughter and her family was received into her bank account 24 hrs after the cancellation. That's a pretty good turnaround.

 

[drcam]

Question: Should I cancel my redemption in Emirates first class HND-DXB-AMS on 29th May? Also I do not have QF status and am unlikely to ever, so I will never be able to do a first class Emirates redemption again.

Is there a reasonable chance of both sectors of my flight actually proceeding?

Of course no redemption flights at a later date?

 

[Rembrandt]

Ukraine is being asked for anti-drone help and technical abilities, should also say everything we need to to read between the lines about the situation.

Huge error of judgement on the part of Israel and the US not to acquire the anti-drone technology from Ukraine prior to this war...

Question: Should I cancel my redemption in Emirates first class HND-DXB-AMS on 29th May? Also I do not have QF status and am unlikely to ever, so I will never be able to do a first class Emirates redemption again.

Is there a reasonable chance of both sectors of my flight actually proceeding?

Of course no redemption flights at a later date?

It's a gamble at this point. 29th of May is way off and we may have bigger problems to face if this war continues on into the mid year...

 

[drcam]

What are the "bigger problems to face"? Australia to get dragged into WW3?

 

[FlyingKangaroo]

Question: Should I cancel my redemption in Emirates first class HND-DXB-AMS on 29th May? Also I do not have QF status and am unlikely to ever, so I will never be able to do a first class Emirates redemption again.

Is there a reasonable chance of both sectors of my flight actually proceeding?

I wouldn't cancel. I think you'll be alright, or else we all will have far bigger things to worry about as noted, and really you lose nothing at this point by holding onto it.

What are the "bigger problems to face"? Australia to get dragged into WW3?

Far less dramatic: just a crippling recession/depression across our entire economy.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

What are the "bigger problems to face"? Australia to get dragged into WW3?

Little to no fuel i would have thought!

 

[equus]

Things will start changing from can't fly through the Middle East due to war zone, to can't fly anywhere because there is no fuel for the plane.

 

[drcam]

I'll be in China from next week through May.
I wonder if China has enough reserves of fuel on its own.

 

[elanshin]

I'll be in China from next week through May.
I wonder if China has enough reserves of fuel on its own.

China currently has no problems. In fact multiple chinese tankers have gone through the strait since the war has began (India also just got their first tanker through and more for them are sailing right now). The strait is not closed for everyone.

 

[Quickstatus]

In fact multiple chinese tankers have gone through the strait since the war has began

Which means the Strait of Hormuz is not mined.

 

[jbman]

Virgin has pushed cancel options out in line with QR

For guests booked on Virgin Australia’s Doha services up to and including 28 March 2026 who no longer wish to travel, we are offering free booking changes to the same destination, or a travel credit or refund.

 

[FlyingKangaroo]

Only a small percentage of oil imported into China comes from Iran, while nearly half comes from other Middle Eastern countries most of which are unable to export much if anything at the moment, so China will certainly have problems, and much more so than places like the US that import far less from the region. Some countries will have it even worse (like Japan), but China certainly has a vested interest in getting the Strait reopened, and not just to get the price back down for oil overall.

This shows the origin of China's 2024 oil imports:

 

[RooFlyer]

Question: Should I cancel my redemption in Emirates first class HND-DXB-AMS on 29th May? Also I do not have QF status and am unlikely to ever, so I will never be able to do a first class Emirates redemption again.

Is there a reasonable chance of both sectors of my flight actually proceeding?

Of course no redemption flights at a later date?

Why would you cancel now? If its flying, you'll go. If its not, it'll be cancelled then.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I'll be in China from next week through May.
I wonder if China has enough reserves of fuel on its own.

But how to get home?

China may have enough reserves to fly to the plane to Australia, but what’s it going to fill up on once here?