Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[AuSammy]

But where is all that extra fuel going?
It is not driving more
Fuel cans/containers are in short supply or unavailable.
I don't see people fill up large number of petrol containers at the servo.

In short I don't think people are buying more fuel than they usually do. Maybe less as more people might be car pooling, taking public transport

[OT] Well your observations don't appear to match the statistics released by the industry, comments by transport operators and the government.

I know of several people people who would fill up only every 2-3weeks, letting their tanks reach almost zero before refilling. Now they are topping up a couple times a week.

There are around 20m registered vehicles in AU.

If each of them have even a small 10l more in the tank than usual that's a load of extra fuel purchased, not necessarily used.

I would expect the panic top up demand to wash through the system after a month or two as everyones tank is full every day and the transport operators catch up to fill all the bowsers.

Of course the ships have to keep coming as well.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Fuel cans/containers are in short supply or unavailable.
I don't see people fill up large number of petrol containers at the servo.

Everyone has a perspective. I live in a provincial town. There has never been a shortage of jerry cans here; most people's garages have them, including a couple in mine. I have seen people filling jerry cans in large numbers (on one visit I was the only person out of four that wasn't filling a jerry can) and bringing in much larger storage containers, which vary in size up to about 1000 litres. On farm storages are much larger. As for failure of supply, independents in particular have run out of diesel a couple of times but mostly there is supply at this stage.

As to where it all goes, if people simply fill up more often (e.g. when 1/2 full rather than 1/4 full or empty) the overall stock held in vehicle tanks, on farm storage and jerry cans increases significantly, which pushes up demand big time. On farm diesel fuel demand is typically high here at this time of year with harvest of some crops in full swing and others being planted. The harvesting in particular is time sensitive.

Not sure how the local airports are faring with avgas supply, but there are a couple of regional reports on this PPRUNE thread, There is quite a bit of emergency helicopter traffic to and from the local hospital also, and I think they may have storage there too.

 

[markis10]

Not sure how the local airports are faring with avgas supply, but there are a couple of regional reports on this PPRUNE thread, There is quite a bit of emergency helicopter traffic to and from the local hospital also, and I think they may have storage there too.

Avgas supply is mostly a non issue as commercial aircraft don’t use it, just recreational in most cases. There is no supply of fuel at hospitals, they get a bit fussy about storage and fuelling in such environments where this no need.

 

[Pushka]

There is an easy solution to drive offs. That has existed in the US for many years.

But the margin from people coming into the store and picking up some overpriced drinks or snacks, rather than pay for fuel at the pump must exceed the cost of the drive offs over the course of a year.

SA Police Commissioner a couple of weeks ago stated that the number of 'first timers' doing drive offs had increased significantly. And basically told Station owners that police could no longer investigate them due to resource difficulties and the stations had the ready solution of pre payments but refused to implement them during the day for exactly this reason.

The other day I purchased a top up, maybe $35 (I never let my tank get below half, ever) and the the attendant was quite desperate it seemed for me to buy something in the shop. Ah. Yeah nah thanks.

 

[Quickstatus]

On farm diesel fuel demand is typically high here at this time of year with harvest of some crops in full swing and others being planted. The harvesting in particular is time sensitive.

True, though harvesting time is not artificial demand.
But my point is that whatever ancillary fuel storage is out there, that was all filled up in the first week or so, not now and are just getting topped up.
Do we have evidence that the unofficial storage of fuel is increasing?

MSO statistics for 24/3/26 is on post #131
MSO statistics for 31/3/26

Net change in official fuel between 24/3/26 and 31/3/26
-Gasoline increase by 21 ML
-Aviation jet increase by 19ML
-Diesel reduce by 92ML

Net change compared to 10/3/26 (post #45)
- Gasoline increase by 87 ML
- Aviation jet increase by 34 ML
- Diesel reduce by 157 ML

 

[Quickstatus]

Avgas supply is mostly a non issue as commercial aircraft don’t use it,

There is quite a bit of emergency helicopter traffic to and from the local hospital also, and I think they may have storage there too.

The third largest airline in Australia - the RFDS, uses Jet Fuel for its Pilatus and King Air turboprops/jets, and also its Airbus turboshaft Helicopters
Westpac rescue and Careflight turboshaft helicopters also use jet fuel

I dont believe hospitals store aviation fuel of any kind.

 

[PineappleSkip]

But my point is that whatever ancillary fuel storage is out there, that was all filled up in the first week or so, not now and are just getting topped up. Do we have evidence that the unofficial storage of fuel is increasing?

Totally valid and agree on this point. A reduced propensity to undertake discretionary travel should also act to reduce overall demand. I haven't seen much jerrycanning since early days but haven't been to the servo that much either. There is some commentary in this article on stockpiling behaviour and claims about which states (NSW) and demographics (Gen Z) had the highest propensity to stockpile.

 

[Quickstatus]

demographics (Gen Z) had the highest propensity to stockpile.

Where are Gen z stockpiling bearing in mind they are 1995-2012 age group.
Whatever the stockpiling, are people suggesting that the number of jerry cans per household are increasing?
Maybe the stockpiling is at the wholesaler level - note the increase in stockholding since 10 March mentioned above.

 

[markis10]

The third largest airline in Australia - the RFDS, uses Jet Fuel for its Pilatus and King Air turboprops/jets, and also its Airbus turboshaft Helicopters
Westpac rescue and Careflight turboshaft helicopters also use jet fuel

All of which is not Avgas.

To be clear, Avgas is for piston engined aircraft (and the odd rental car being returned to Adelaide when the renter topped up the tank by mistake because it was on the bowser at the Adelaide airport fuel station). It’s only produced by Viva energy in Australia at its refinery in Geelong.

Being a pilot with both helicopter and fixed wing endorsements including turbo props and jets I am very familiar with what uses what, but here a picture for those unclear:



JetA1 is the critical fuel, often known as Avtur is produced by 2 out of our 4 refineries in operation.

 

[Saab34]

Geelong produces all AVGAS from memory, nothing is imported.

CSIRO thinks that by 2050 over 80% of aviation turbine fuels (SAF) will be produced locally.

 

[Quickstatus]

All of which is not Avgas.

Correct, thats why I said Jet fuel

Interesting that AvGas has a higher lead content than Road petrol - presumably necessary to hit the 100 Octane.