Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[Saab34]

QF has significant financial commitments due in the coming years. A year or two of deflated earnings (oil aftermath) if it drags on won’t be kind.

 

[drron]

reports coming that China is halting exports....32% of our jet fuel imports from there and suggestions other countries would follow suit

if so, expect severe rationing, complete disruption to not just international aviation activity, but also domestic....

Anyone else feeling precarious booking travel for July school holidays/winter?

And 2 of the reports I have seen about China halting exports are that at least 1 tanker of Avgas bound for Australia was turned around and back to China.

 

[markis10]

And 2 of the reports I have seen about China halting exports are that at least 1 tanker of Avgas

Wonder if you mean JetA1 or Avtur, Avgas is for pistons usually GA

 

[Saab34]

Fairly sure Geelong still produces Avgas. Doesn’t appear to be much though.

Let’s see what happens with the oil price today, bit over an hour till open after the weekend pause .

 

[markis10]

Viva energy is a major aviation fuel supplier, and they produce most of it at Geelong. Geelong is the only avgas refiner but both do JetA1

 

[transpactraveller]

A long term closure of the Strait of Hormuz will cause covid-like supply shortages and economic downturns around the world, along with travel disruption.

China will be putting pressure on Iran to get ships moving.

 

[Quickstatus]

Viva energy

It is one of 2 remaining refineries in Aus
The other one is in Brisbane (Ampol) which also produces Aviation fuel and I think partially supplies BNE airport. Viva basically produces under the Shell banner.

Together that can maybe supply 15-20% of daily consumption.

 

[markis10]

It is one of 2 remaining refineries in Aus
The other one is in Brisbane (Ampol) which also produces Aviation fuel and I think partially supplies BNE airport. Viva basically produces under the Shell banner.

Viva is the only Avgas refiner in Australia, both do JetA1 as I mentioned in my post. I previously worked for Viva. Viva are the on airport fuel source at 95 airports in Australia and they DONT use the shell branding for Aviation.

 

[Quickstatus]

Viva is the only Avgas refiner in Australia

Sure, the point Im making is that they are not able to cover for the current situation

shell branding for Aviation.

Yes, Shell sold its aviation fuel business to Viva about 9 years ago.
The brand is unimportant, the refinery capacity is - to the extent it can get feedstock (crude)

19 days jet fuel cover in January 2026













Aus also exports Crude:

 

[clifford]

China will be putting pressure on Iran to get ships moving.

Maybe. They might also be talking to their friends to the west. Mutually convenient.

 

[drron]

Singapore refinery declares force majeure.
There goes our major fuel source.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/singapores-aster-declares-force-majeure-disruption-supply-raw-materials-2026-03-06/

 

[Quickstatus]

Singapore refinery declares force majeure.

Aster is not one of the big 3 in Singapore which are ExxonMobil/Shell/Singapore refinery but a domino nonetheless

A force majeure just means production is affected by external factors and as such contracts cannot be honoured in full and the company is released from its contractual obligations. What its customers get will be less. That much is already known, the only difference is refinery just made it official.

 

[elanshin]

I guess a lot if this is where diplomacy comes in. Australia really should actually be able to hold strong cards against china as well to not be cut off. I remember they played economic bullying a few years ago and got a brown eye out of it.

With the right negotiations , we should still be able to maintain some levels of supply out of China. They still need a lot of our resources after all.

 

[Pushka]

Singapore refinery declares force majeure.
There goes our major fuel source.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/singapores-aster-declares-force-majeure-disruption-supply-raw-materials-2026-03-06/

declared March 6.

 

[offshore171]

UAE for example has a very serious gag order out for anyone filming anything to do with the missile and drones. Lots of people have been arrested and forced to delete their footages - which is why we don't see very much about the missiles and drones in UAE.

For good reason though. This type of footage helps the IRGC with their targeting.

It's essentially free, zero risk battle damage assessment. In the old days, you had to risk your own assets to perform BDA after you attack something to observe accuracy, effectiveness etc.

Nowadays some influencer serves it up on a platter for you, via Instagram.

 

[offshore171]

I guess a lot if this is where diplomacy comes in. Australia really should actually be able to hold strong cards

Economics journalist Tarric Brooker wrote a suggested course of action for the Australian Government. It's in the form of "If I was writing a speech for the PM, this is what it would say."

Worth a read. It's not political, it's just about energy security.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2033465577453351358

Excerpt:

"As volatility in the energy supply market continues, my government will be making it clear that while we will attempt to keep our existing energy export commitments, that comes with an obligation to those whose economy's are powered with Australian energy products.

If we supply you with the liquefied natural gas, thermal coal and coking coal to feed your economy's, then we expect that you continue to provide us with the refined fuels such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel that we receive from you."

 

[Saab34]

It’s clear they are not going to end this until they get a cooperative regime with some trade offs. I think that’s going to be a multi month journey. No doubt some other strings are being pulled by some of Irans allies behind the scenes complicating things further.

I think I would be comfortable making booking for July onwards but opt for Flexible Fares perhaps.

 

[clifford]

It’s clear they are not going to end this until they get a cooperative regime with some trade offs.

In that case it's never going to end. There will have to be compromises on both sides.

I have a couple of bookings through the ME for later this year, and I expect to get a refund in both cases. Worth noting though that EY seems to have removed the ability to request a refund. The other carriers may well follow suit given the cost of not flying and having to pay refunds.

 

[Pushka]

Any more updates about the aviation fuel issue? Coz grammar is just grammar.

 

[offshore171]

Any more updates about the aviation fuel issue? Coz grammar is just grammar.

Thank you.

Ignoring the grammar, what do people think of this as a potential Australian govt policy position? Basically, we’ll keep supplying the fuels that your country needs as long as you keep supplying us the fuels we need.


"As volatility in the energy supply market continues, my government will be making it clear that while we will attempt to keep our existing energy export commitments, that comes with an obligation to those whose economies are powered with Australian energy products.

If we supply you with the liquefied natural gas, thermal coal and coking coal to feed your economies, then we expect that you continue to provide us with the refined fuels such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel that we receive from you."


We import much of our refined petroleum products from Singapore, Korea etc. But we also supply them with LNG and coal products. would such a position move Australia up their priority list?