JAL maybe forced into bankruptcy

[wrldtrvllr]

reports surfacing of possible JAL bankruptcy; stock being burnt - down 25%

Japan Air Plunges to Record Amid Bankruptcy Reports (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

employees are also due to respond by Jan 12 on proposed 30-50% cuts to try save the airline...

 

[NYCguy]

Japan's public debt is already about 180% of GDP, so the Government might as well throw a few tens-of-billions on ¥ at JAL and see what happens. It's unlikely that the Govt will simply let JAL roll over and die - I just can't see that being an option, given the cultural mentality of the Japanese.

 

[codash1099]

A little more info here.

Bankruptcy mooted for Japan Airlines

 

[Nigelinoz]

I wonder if there is anyone (airline or individual) that would be both interested enough and cashed up enough to buy a stake in JAL?
How's RB travelling these days?

 

[clifford]

Bankruptcy for JAL.

It's not going to happen!

Trust me.

 

[codash1099]

Bankruptcy for JAL.

It's not going to happen!

Trust me.

You may be right. They don't make the "potentially broke" list on Crikey: Plane Talking

 

[drron]

Bankruptcy for JAL.

It's not going to happen!

Trust me.

It certainly may happen but more bankruptcy US style than Aussie style so that debt,salaries,pensions etc can be cut.As the link codash supplied suggested.Here is the same release from the Japan times-
Bankruptcy urged for JAL effort | The Japan Times Online
However this would be a loss of face for the execs and a few probably wont survive the restructure.

 

[anat0l]

You may be right. They don't make the "potentially broke" list on Crikey: Plane Talking

I had to laugh at some of those odds, reprinted partly also in the linked pages and of course from the "source" of the fun, Paddy Power.

 

[Keith009]

It certainly may happen but more bankruptcy US style than Aussie style so that debt,salaries,pensions etc can be cut.As the link codash supplied suggested.Here is the same release from the Japan times-
Bankruptcy urged for JAL effort | The Japan Times Online
However this would be a loss of face for the execs and a few probably wont survive the restructure.

Or maybe a "liquidation + rise from the ashes" arrangement like Swissair->SWISS International. Same organisation in all but name, free of existing liabilities and with a leaner structure. Massive loss of face however, and political poison if the govt isn't seen to be helping JAL I suspect.

 

[Mal]

There has been a lot of chatter over the last couple of days that JAL may abandon all International flights and concentrate on domestic only. (passing International flights to ANA).

Now that would probably save it financially, but I'm sure oneworld FF'ers won't be too happy !

 

[drron]

There has been a lot of chatter over the last couple of days that JAL may abandon all International flights and concentrate on domestic only. (passing International flights to ANA).

Now that would probably save it financially, but I'm sure oneworld FF'ers won't be too happy !

The Japanese transport minister has denied this.And why would Delta and AA be interested in investing in purely a domestic airline.Methinks the rumours may be from the stars.

 

[SeaWolf]

The Japanese transport minister has denied this.And why would Delta and AA be interested in investing in purely a domestic airline.Methinks the rumours may be from the stars.

The idea has gained traction because it was floated by several other cabinet ministers, even though the Transport minister is opposed to the idea:
All Nippon mulls taking JAL's overseas flights: report | Reuters

Several cabinet ministers have asked JAL to completely withdraw from overseas flights and hand the business over to All Nippon, the Mainichi Shimbum said on Thursday. But Transport Minister Seiji Maehara has been opposed to having only one Japanese airline offer international service, the Mainichi said.

I doubt JAL will just disappear from the internation scene and become domestic only, it would be incredibly messy. But it's not a stretch to think that they may well pull out of a number (maybe many) international routes and that ANA will then pick them up. ANA might be able to turn a profit on them where JAL couldn't.

 

[KitKat]

more development today, hope nothing happens in Jan as have last flight on 31st!

some hope here

AFP: Japan Airlines shares soar on credit lifeline

 

[anat0l]

I doubt JAL will just disappear from the international scene and become domestic only, it would be incredibly messy. But it's not a stretch to think that they may well pull out of a number (maybe many) international routes and that ANA will then pick them up. ANA might be able to turn a profit on them where JAL couldn't.

The airline industry - like many things in Japan - are highly regulated. If the government is going to broker the transition of JAL into a different operating regime, then there's probably nothing to stop them from enforcing a specific operational regime on new JAL and ANA in order to avoid monopolistic behaviour a la many Western country examples, and even QF just after AN's collapse.

How successful a government (and in this case the Japanese government) can do just that without appropriate external company participation is a whole different matter.

 

[drron]

The idea has gained traction because it was floated by several other cabinet ministers, even though the Transport minister is opposed to the idea:
All Nippon mulls taking JAL's overseas flights: report | Reuters

I doubt JAL will just disappear from the internation scene and become domestic only, it would be incredibly messy. But it's not a stretch to think that they may well pull out of a number (maybe many) international routes and that ANA will then pick them up. ANA might be able to turn a profit on them where JAL couldn't.

They have already announced pulling out of many international routes-BNE-NRT being one.

 

[docjames]

They have already announced pulling out of many international routes-BNE-NRT being one.

When did they announce this?

Also, you'd think it might have something to do with the fact their J product BNE-NRT vv isnt up to scratch for a "full service" carrier.

 

[anat0l]

Also, you'd think it might have something to do with the fact their J product BNE-NRT vv isnt up to scratch for a "full service" carrier.

It surely can't be worse than Millennium J on QF 767s - or *gasp*, Dreamtime if they use those instead.

Oh wait a minute - QF don't even service BNE-NRT (let alone any BNE-Japan) any more!

What is it with Australia and the Japanese market? NZ maintain two routes to Japan, both with long haul standards of service. The best the Qantas group can muster is lowly 767s with a high price ex-SYD, and JQ. Don't tell me that there's a bigger market for premium flyers to NZ rather than to AU.

If VA really want to splinter the QF group, I'd think about targeting the Japanese market.

 

[medhead]

Some more news on this today:

The Japan government has come to the rescue in the short term

Japan Airlines soar as government doubles bailout | The Australian

and
Tokyo extends financial lifeline to Japan Airlines | The Australian

In the longer term it looks like Delta might be the winner.

Japan Airlines favours Delta rescue, British Airways, American Airlines wait in wings | The Australian

 

[codash1099]

Some more news on this today:

The Japan government has come to the rescue in the short term

Japan Airlines soar as government doubles bailout | The Australian

and
Tokyo extends financial lifeline to Japan Airlines | The Australian

In the longer term it looks like Delta might be the winner.

Japan Airlines favours Delta rescue, British Airways, American Airlines wait in wings | The Australian

I certainly hope the longer term means beyond April. My attempts for WP hang on JAL still being in Oneworld in April.

 

[drron]

I certainly hope the longer term means beyond April. My attempts for WP hang on JAL still being in Oneworld in April.

You should be fine.Changing Alliances is not that straighforward and should be at least several months warning as with CO leaving Skyteam.
If JAL leaves will OW become the POW Alliance(part of world).