General Coronavirus chit chat thread - non-travel specific

[tgh]

Settling the pigeons ????

DR. DEBORAH BRIX: I'm sure you have seen the recent report out of the U.K. about them adjusting completely their needs. This is really quite important. If you remember, that was the report that says there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They've adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. Half a million to 20,000. We are looking at that in great detail to understand that adjustment.

I'm going to say something that is a little bit complicated but do it in a way we can understand it together. In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who a-asymptomatic, who never presented for any test to have the kind of numbers predicted. To get to 60 million people infected, you have to have a large group of a-symptomatics. We have not seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000. So either we are measuring the iceberg and underneath it, are a large group of people. So we are working hard to get the antibody test and figure out who these people are and do they exist. Or we have the transmission completely wrong.

So these are the things we are looking at, because the predictions of the model don't match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea or Italy. We are five times the size of Italy. If we were Italy and did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They are not close to achieving that.

Models are models. We are -- there is enough data of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience.

And the situation about ventilators. We are reassured in meeting with our colleagues in New York that there are still I.C.U. Beds remaining and still significant -- over 1,000 or 2,000 ventilators that have not been utilized.

Please for the reassurance of people around the world, to wake up this morning and look at people talking about creating DNR situations, Do Not Resuscitate situations for patients, there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion. You can be thinking about it in the hospital. Certainly, hospitals talk about this on a daily basis, but to say that to the American people and make the implication that when they need a hospital bed it's not going to be there or a ventilator, it's not going to be there, we don't have evidence of that.

It's our job collectively to assure the American people, it's our job to make sure that doesn't happen. You can see the cases are concentrated in highly urban areas and there are other parts of the states that have lots of ventilators and other parts of New York state that don't have any infected. We can meet the needs by being responsive.

There is no model right now -- no reality on the ground where we can see that 60% to 70% of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks. I want to be clear about that. We are adapting to the reality on the ground and looking at the models of how they can inform but learning from South Korea and Italy and from Spain and I know you will look up my numbers.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Epic read here from the IMF on countries' response so far to COVID-19. Mentions the public health etc measures for each before the economic measures.
IMF - Policy responses to CoVID-19

Currently I am up to 'B'

Also, I rarely hear about the recovery, probably only once a week. Isn't that an important statistic too?

Yes it is, but many places are not reporting recoveries. In Australia, Victoria is, and I think I read only one other state also is. Over time this will unnecessarily inflate active case numbers.

cheers skip

 

[Antoallison]

The family of the latest person to die in WA of COVID19 have asked The West Australian newspaper 27/3/2020 to release his details and photo.

It brings home the point that although most cases have pre-existing medical conditions, this man was 73 years old, but was fit and healthy up till that point.

His photo (which I have cropped out) and details of how rapidly he deteriorated really brought home what a devastating disease this is.

 

[get me outta here]

And, hopeless medical provisions for treatment. They should’ve closed their borders weeks ago, it’s the only way for them to have been safe. You can get the gist of it here by the heading :

Africa is woefully ill-equipped to cope with covid-19

People cannot stay away from work if they have no money

www.economist.com

It’s going to be a disaster. They have almost no ability to test or contact trace, so reported numbers will stay small but deaths won’t.

EDiT - I sent my brother an email a few days ago asking how they were going - I suspect the reply will be depressing.....

 

[Pushka]

News just came out that Victoria has the biggest daily increase of 111 cases, however, it's also been revealed 90+% are from people returning overseas or had contact with people overseas. So is it a little alarmist to have headlines like this when the returnees are already subject to quarantined and are not out in the open to transmit the virus to others?

Also, I rarely hear about the recovery, probably only once a week. Isn't that an important statistic too?

Assuming they all did self isolate. Did they?

 

[get me outta here]

Love that yea! Where was the conductor? They mostly seem to be in sync!

And anyone else loving when this happens?

https://www.facebook.com/

 

[p--and--t]

Epic read here from the IMF on countries' response so far to COVID-19. Mentions the public health etc measures for each before the economic measures.
IMF - Policy responses to CoVID-19

Currently I am up to 'B'

cheers skip

We might be desperately short of PPE, beds and medical personnel. Seems we are not short of economists and report writers.

Separately, in the media certainly no shortage of the property market doom and gloom forecasters that are trotted out a couple times every year to make their dire predictions that haven't eventuated even through the GFC.

 

[get me outta here]

Yeah, next time I’m surrounded by bushfires trying to work out whether I need to evacuate again, I’ll be sure to sit down on the couch and watch Sky News.

Well as usual I watched it on Sky News through the WIN regional network.There coverage of these events is the same as the ABC as it was for the bushfires.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Epic read here from the IMF on countries' response so far to COVID-19. Mentions the public health etc measures for each before the economic measures.
IMF - Policy responses to CoVID-19

Currently I am up to 'B'



Yes it is, but many places are not reporting recoveries. In Australia, Victoria is, and I think I read only one other state also is. Over time this will unnecessarily inflate active case numbers.

cheers skip

This site always list recoveries.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 135,796,699 Cases and 2,934,646 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

also deaths per million and infections per million which makes comparisons easier. Scroll down a bit to get to the individual countries

 

[drron]

Yeah, next time I’m surrounded by bushfires trying to work out whether I need to evacuate again, I’ll be sure to sit down on the couch and watch Sky News.

They had the exact same crosses to the Emergency services and press conferences as the ABC did-I flicked between them.
But the extra they had were reporters in every active fire zone due to it being allied to the WIN Regional network.Certainly more than the ABC.

 

[Flying mermaid]

We might be desperately short of PPE

i have a friend in Victoria in the middle of sewing 54 scrub hats. She has two friends sewing another 50 each. Apparently it’s a thing among craft people - she even copied me in the request and I can barely thread a needle. They are very brightly coloured and patterned so a new trend in scrubs

 

[get me outta here]

If you want to know what’s going on in your area and you live in a bushfire area you listen to the local ABC radio. I don’t sit on my cough watching television during disasters.

They had the exact same crosses to the Emergency services and press conferences as the ABC did-I flicked between them.
But the extra they had were reporters in every active fire zone due to it being allied to the WIN Regional network.Certainly more than the ABC.

 

[p--and--t]

i have a friend in Victoria in the middle of sewing 54 scrub hats. She has two friends sewing another 50 each. Apparently it’s a thing among craft people - she even copied me in the request and I can barely thread a needle. They are very brightly coloured and patterned so a new trend in scrubs

I also have a friend at home sewing triple layer cloth face masks that can be washed/sterilised after use. Don't know, but possibly found a tutorial somewhere on google.

 

[Flying mermaid]

9 new cases in Canberra taking us to 71. No evidence of community transmission although 1 case is still under investigation as to origin. Looks like my gossip network was quite accurate - got to love Canberra

 

[Flying mermaid]

This is so good

 

[PineappleSkip]

This site always list recoveries.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 135,796,699 Cases and 2,934,646 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Unfortunately, like all the reporting sites with secondary data (they are proliferating!) it only lists reported recoveries - 170 in AUS in the case of Worldometer. The bulk of these, in AUS, and some other places, are not reported. This means that as more and more people, hopefully, recover, the numbers of active cases become more and more overstated. You can see the problem and its size when you look at the current stats for NSW and Vic



Of course there are plenty of other problems with reported case numbers, and deaths, although I think AUS numbers are relatively good in those regards.

cheers skip.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Unfortunately, like all the reporting sites with secondary data (they are proliferating!) it only lists reported recoveries - 170 in AUS in the case of Worldometer. The bulk of these, in AUS, and some other places, are not reported. This means that as more and more people, hopefully, recover, the numbers of active cases become more and more overstated. You can see the problem and its size when you look at the current stats for NSW and Vic
View attachment 211072
View attachment 211073

Of course there are plenty of other problems with reported case numbers, and deaths, although I think AUS numbers are relatively good in those regards.

cheers skip.

Yes that’s true and doesn’t help the panic levels. None of them are perfect but this gives a pretty fair and regularly updated picture at least of daily growth in cases and some info on recoveries. I find it more useful than the Johns Hopkins one.

 

[Denali]

I sometimes wonder how people were raised, to think that this is ever OK

Woman charged after spitting on officer during vehicle stop

A woman will face court today after allegedly repeatedly coughing and spitting on an officer during a vehicle stop in Sydney’s south west yesterday.

www.news.com.au

She was physically removed and handcuffed, claiming she was on her way to be tested for COVID-19 before resisting and repeatedly coughing in the officer’s face. The woman was escorted to the police vehicle, and as the officer reached inside, she struck her head against the vehicle window and spat at the officer.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Notwithstanding the current Covid crisis, isn’t it fortunate that this didn’t hit us six months ago during the bushfire emergencies.

i also feel for the bushfire victims who seem to have almost been forgotten now. Did they ever get the $2B they were promised?

 

[TheRealTMA]

Surely ventilator design is a solved problem, and now's not really the time to be trialling unproven (and unapproved) technology?

I’d read somewhere that there are a number of patents on ventilator parts and this can be a problem for other manufacturers wishing to produce them. Some Sydney firm (?) is offering to 3D print ventilator valves but has to get approval from patent holders as I read.