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General Corona Virus chit chat thread - non-travel specific

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Deaths in the USA likely much higher. New York has only been counting confirmed cases


And not just in New York. In many of the counts the deaths are deaths in Hospitals. This was I believe the case in China too.

 
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New Zealand numbers.

Interesting - more than QLD, although QLD has a larger population and has conducted ~ 20,000 more tests. Makes you wonder if NZ's total shut down is worth it.


Case Rates is a very rubbery figure though and very difficult to compare between countries or even regions.

The hospitalisation rate and death rate, which are both more precise measures, are both very low in New Zealand.
 

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Case Rates is a very rubbery figure though and very difficult to compare between countries or even regions.

The hospitalisation rate and death rate which are both more precise measures are both very low in New Zealand.
Take out the deaths caused by the cruise industry - QLD would probably be the same or lower.

Looking at the numbers - NZ has gone the full monty, for bugger all, or zero benefit.
 

amaroo

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Not sure this sends the message - we're all in this together? What about families that wanted an extra 2 or 3 people attend their love one's service - terrible decision.

 
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When this crisis has stabilised - I don't think it will ever go away, unfortunately- I think the interesting stat will be all cause mortality when compared with previous years.
 

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When this crisis has stabilised - I don't think it will ever go away, unfortunately- I think the interesting stat will be all cause mortality when compared with previous years.
Yes, that's a figure i'm interested in too. I did see a graph a week or so ago which showed (I think) total mortality up to the start of April and it was trending much lower than previous years. Can't find it now.
 

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Yes, that's a figure i'm interested in too. I did see a graph a week or so ago which showed (I think) total mortality up to the start of April and it was trending much lower than previous years. Can't find it now.
It's something with a lot of moving parts

Some data from Scotland showing an excess of deaths but only about half due to Corona. People may not be seeking attention for heart attack and stroke symptoms for instance.

Currently numbers in my hospitals are low. Some of this might be due to fewer people falling over and reduced non-CoViD respiratory contagion but it's difficult to believe that other illnesses have evaporated.

Surgery is an interesting aspect. Some is life-saving but much is life-improving (e.g hip replacement). Inevitably some people will have complications, so if there is less going on, there may be fewer people in hospital.

I suspect Italy and Spain will have a high absolute mortality this year but lower than usual in the next couple as many who succumb are toward the end of their life.
 
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Take out the deaths caused by the cruise industry - QLD would probably be the same or lower.

Looking at the numbers - NZ has gone the full monty, for bugger all, or zero benefit.
My point was more on the stats.

However I do believe, and perhaps agree with you(?), that the Australian approach to date after a few initial stumbles has been an excellent one and a very good balance of both the health and economic threats.

I do disagree strongly with your point to the other night that we should now deliberately start exposing people to CV 19.

Social (Physical) Distancing, Quarantining, Handwashing etc have all combined to achieve a result way better that any in government, or their health advisers, would have hoped for. Australians in the main have been so good at embracing social distancing and doing it in the spirit of Stay at Home, rather than seeking to exploit loopholes, that we are probably achieving almost the same result despite the in theory more harsh NZ restrictions.

It now sets up us to go the eradication path that New Zealand is striving to achieve, but with a lot less economic pain.

Our new daily cases today was only 85. The first sub-100 day since March 17. With our current trend in this I would currently see no reason why within Australia that by the end of April that our new cases will be so low (ignoring any new arrivals who go into quarantine) that we cannot start to re-activate our close businesses in a stage manner. thing back on at once .ie Do not turn every Keeping appropriate health measure though, and still encouraging work at home practices.

Many leisure pastimes will also again become possible. But again stage their re-introduction.

Leisure international travel to remain no no till a vaccine is developed. And most if not all business travel too. I personally would not be willing to sacrifice the lives and permanent lung damage that re-introducing international travel would result in if done pre-vaccine.

There may be some rare exemptions on compassionate grounds, but quarantine on return.
 
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Yes, that's a figure i'm interested in too. I did see a graph a week or so ago which showed (I think) total mortality up to the start of April and it was trending much lower than previous years. Can't find it now.
Well deaths from flu should be substantially less. Though looking at the USA Flu Season which we often echo their flu season was a mild one. But whatever it would have been most of the CV 19 measures are also excellent for the flu and the common cold. Plus other things like gastro.

Balancing that though is who know whether the suicide rate will be up or down due to CV 19. Many failed businesses could cause a spike in such deaths.
 

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Well deaths from flu should be substantially less. Though looking at the USA Flu Season which we often echo their flu season was a mild one. But whatever it would have been most of the CV 19 measures are also excellent for the flu and the common cold. Plus other things like gastro.

Balancing that though is who know whether the suicide rate will be up or down due to CV 19. Many failed businesses could cause a spike in such deaths.
My view is the rate would be substantially higher this year, the next and probably the year after too.
 

amaroo

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My point was more on the stats.

However I do believe, and perhaps agree with you(?), that the Australian approach to date after a few initial stumbles has been an excellent one and a very good balance of both the health and economic threats.

I do disagree strongly with your point to the other night that we should now deliberately start exposing people to CV 19.

Social (Physical) Distancing, Quarantining, Handwashing etc have all combined to achieve a result way better that any in government, or their health advisers, would have hoped for. Australians in the main have been so good at embracing social distancing and doing it in the spirit of Stay at Home, rather than seeking to exploit loopholes, that we are probably achieving almost the same result despite the in theory more harsh NZ restrictions.

It now sets up us to go the eradication path that New Zealand is striving to achieve, but with a lot less economic pain.

Our new daily cases today was only 85. The first sub-100 day since March 17. With our current trend in this I would currently see no reason why within Australia that by the end of April that our new cases will be so low (ignoring any new arrivals who go into quarantine) that we cannot start to re-activate our close businesses in a stage manner. thing back on at once .ie Do not turn every Keeping appropriate health measure though, and still encouraging work at home practices.

Many leisure pastimes will also again become possible. But again stage their re-introduction.

Leisure international travel to remain no no till a vaccine is developed. And most if not all business travel too. I personally would not be willing to sacrifice the lives and permanent lung damage that re-introducing international travel would result in if done pre-vaccine.

There may be some rare exemptions on compassionate grounds, but quarantine on return.
You jumped the fence big time - that shouldn't be allowed. Let's focus on new topics ... BTW I think you're wrong.
 

amaroo

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Given the attempts to distract from the point.

Take the time to review the New Zealand numbers posted above - they pretty much show a massive overreaction by the NZ government. Best to be informed and form your own views on how your Government is performing.
 

drron

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Who said it was going to end?
We may not develop immunity to the virus, which means a vaccine may be impossible and herd immunity unattainable.
It is going to end well before that.
Some business people are already saying that lockdown can't last 6 months and still have a successful Aussie economy.

More importantly Lifeline is getting huge increases to it's suicide prevention line and predict it to increase the longer the lockdown continues.

To put that in perspective the world deaths from suicide around the world until April 1st was >250000
Plus it is the younger age groups that will bear the brunt of this problem.
 

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