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General Corona Virus chit chat thread - non-travel specific

drron

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Norway has been held up as managing covid much better than it's neighbour Sweden.However the director of their public health agency now doesn't think all of the lockdown was necessary particularly the closing of schools.
"Norway’s statistics agency was also the first in the world to calculate the permanent damage inflicted by school closures: every week of classroom education denied to students, it found, stymies life chances and permanently lowers earnings potential. So a country should only enforce this draconian measure if it is sure that the academic foundation for lockdown was sound. And in Stoltenberg’s opinion, ‘the academic foundation was not good enough’ for lockdown this time. "


Again Norway closed their border to all non citizens,Sweden still let in people from the EU and the UK.
 

RooFlyer

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.However the director of their public health agency now doesn't think all of the lockdown was necessary particularly the closing of schools.
Isn’t that a hindsight thing? Like saying that we didn’t really need all those ventilators in Australia. If it turned out ‘worst case’ and not ‘good case’ ( reality), would he still think the same?
 

Princess Fiona

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Norway has been held up as managing covid much better than it's neighbour Sweden.However the director of their public health agency now doesn't think all of the lockdown was necessary particularly the closing of schools.
"Norway’s statistics agency was also the first in the world to calculate the permanent damage inflicted by school closures: every week of classroom education denied to students, it found, stymies life chances and permanently lowers earnings potential. So a country should only enforce this draconian measure if it is sure that the academic foundation for lockdown was sound. And in Stoltenberg’s opinion, ‘the academic foundation was not good enough’ for lockdown this time. "


Again Norway closed their border to all non citizens,Sweden still let in people from the EU and the UK.
That’s really interesting. Do you know what Norway is basing these predictions of school closures on ?

The experience in Christchurch after the earthquake does not support this at all.
Does Missing a term of school due to COVID-19 really matter?
 

drron

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There is a link to her speech but it is in Norwegian.Google couldn't find an English translation.
 

lovetravellingoz

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South Korea are re-introducing some shut down measures yet again, after a new local cluster of infections, this time in the distribution centre of a mail order company in the Seoul suburb of Bucheon.


After a significant rise in coronavirus infections, South Korea is tightening restrictions in Seoul and its outskirts again, the country's health minister has announced after a crisis meeting chaired by Premier Chung Sye Kyun.

Public institutions including museums, theatres and multifunctional halls in the greater Seoul area would again be shut down immediately until June 14, Park Neung Hoo said. "The next two weeks are critical," he said on Thursday.

So far, the government hasn't considered closing schools again, which have been gradually reopening nationwide since last week


 

lovetravellingoz

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That’s really interesting. Do you know what Norway is basing these predictions of school closures on ?

The experience in Christchurch after the earthquake does not support this at all.
Does Missing a term of school due to COVID-19 really matter?
That article seems to reference two different sources and the one I have read on Camille Stoltenberg did not attribute that quote to her, and from the article it would seem to be from the Norway’s statistics agency and that the article seems to be blurring things together. Her remarks and recommendations focused on the health aspects.


But in the case of educational institutions there was a slight counterpoint between the Institute of Public Health and the political authorities. "We do not recommend that the government close gardens and schools. At least until the grades from first to seventh, or from first to sixth ”, Stoltenberg remarks on the measure that was adopted. That said, once they decided on the closure anyway, we said that it had to be maintained until we saw the effect of the measures. Because we also wanted a reduction in contagion ”.

Camille Stoltenberg


- Are there elements to assess the effects of the closure of schools and kindergartens?

“It is one of the measures on which we certainly need more information and research. We wanted to study the reopening of gardens and schools with a randomized controlled trial (an experiment that involves opening one half and leaving the other closed and then comparing the results), but we were not authorized to do so. At that time, the Government did not want to postpone this reopening in half of the country's schools, which was what we suggested. Our proposal was that half of the children return to school and the other half do so four weeks later. We will have to use the data we have, extracted from records and other indirect sources, in order to measure and balance each of the measures. And I think there will be different conclusions in different countries, so there will continue to be great discussions about which measure was successful and which was not. For example, in the United States and in several other countries, the models showed that closing schools and gardens was an extraordinarily important measure in reducing virus transmission, while we believe that it may not have played a role. so crucial, but we can't be sure. We have good arguments for thinking about it, but we cannot confirm it. At least we do know that the closings of schools and gardens are not so important for children, because very few become seriously ill, but we do not know what their role is in the spread of the disease, whether or not they can infect their grandparents or their great grandparents. in the United States and in several other countries, the models showed that closing schools and gardens was an extremely important measure in reducing transmission of the virus, while we believe that it may not have played such a crucial role, but we cannot be sure. We have good arguments for thinking about it, but we cannot confirm it. At least we do know that the closings of schools and gardens are not so important for children, because very few become seriously ill, but we do not know what their role is in the spread of the disease, whether or not they can infect their grandparents or their great grandparents. in the United States and in several other countries, the models showed that closing schools and gardens was an extremely important measure in reducing transmission of the virus, while we believe that it may not have played such a crucial role, but we cannot be sure. We have good arguments for thinking about it, but we cannot confirm it. At least we do know that the closings of schools and gardens are not so important for children, because very few become seriously ill, but we do not know what their role is in the spread of the disease, whether or not they can infect their grandparents or their great grandparents. While we believe that it may not have played such a crucial role, but we cannot be sure. We have good arguments for thinking about it, but we cannot confirm it. At least we do know that the closings of schools and gardens are not so important for children, because very few become seriously ill, but we do not know what their role is in the spread of the disease, whether or not they can infect their grandparents or their great grandparents. While we believe that it may not have played such a crucial role, but we cannot be sure. We have good arguments for thinking about it, but we cannot confirm it. At least we do know that the closings of schools and gardens are not so important for children, because very few become seriously ill, but we do not know what their role is in the spread of the disease, whether or not they can infect their grandparents or their great grandparents.


—In a recent interview, you suggested that closing schools could have had even more negative consequences than keeping them open. What did he mean by this?

"I will explain what I meant." The first is that it is a claim that is not based on scientific evidence. But the claim of those who say that closing the schools was not a good decision is not based on scientific evidence. What we know, based on weak or almost no scientific evidence, is that it is very difficult for older children, between the seventh or eighth grades, or even younger, to maintain the distance between them. It is very difficult to control what they do, because they long to return to their freer lives. And not all, but some of them, who in some places are a considerable proportion, live in certain circumstances with parents and families with whom it is very difficult to live. That itself is well documented. So, particularly when the containment measures are prolonged over time,

Children's behavior is very difficult to monitor and is likely to be less advantageous in reducing the spread of the virus from home to school.
 
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Flashback

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UK had eased restrictions and I use that as a very tongue in cheek statement.


You can now go and visit someone's private residence, but outside only and no more than 6 people. Well, it's better than nothing I suppose. I always wondered why it was OK to meet someone out in public socially distanced but not in your own backyard.

Small concession to make but well needed and from what I've seen from houses around us a lot of people have been breaking the rules and doing this anyway....... so this just formalises that. There's still no serious easing of lockdowns here though, so hopefully Mrs FB's visa is approved and we shoot off down under for a few months.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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Remember too that Norway's death rate is 10 times Australia's. So if Australia achieved what Norway has there would be be one thousand Australian dead, rather than one hundred odd.

Norway lacked capacity that Sweden had in intensive care, and so gaining time to increase their intensive care capacity was important to them at the time they introduced their measures.

Now hindsight can be a wonderful thing. ie Ruby Princess could have been prevented from sailing.
So all countries could have done better. Singapore probably wishes it had of taken better measures with their guest workers.

Camille Stoltenberg

“As for the reasons for taking such harsh measures, there is a debate. Some believe that the goal is to eradicate the virus, but others say that this is not possible. What were they looking for in Norway when they established the quarantine?

—We had a very clear goal: to decrease the rapid spread of the virus at that time. It was not eradicating it. Not because we didn't want to, but because that was probably not possible and the measures to be taken would have to be too disruptive. The objective was to build capacity in the health system, particularly in intensive care. Develop other measures, not so harsh, such as testing, isolation, tracking and targeted quarantines. Build systems to measure the epidemic, analyze and model what may happen in the future. And know more about the measures, to assess their effects more carefully. Because many countries implement packages in which all measures are interrelated, then it is not known, for example,

—About 230 people died of COVID-19 in Norway and just over 8,000 became infected. Now that the country is reopening, is it possible to keep those numbers so low until the end of the year or is it inevitable that infections and deaths will increase?

—We believe that there will be more infections and more deaths, but that they are not necessarily going to be very high. We think that if there is a focus we are now able to detect it at an early stage. But it remains to be seen whether our monitoring systems are sensitive and whether the population is conscious enough to continue to behave in a way that protects itself even though it may now lead a more normal life. We believe there will be new waves, but our intention is to keep them small and local. We believe it is possible, but we are not sure, there is a lot of uncertainty.
 
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Pushka

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Schools in SA only closed for a week before the Easter break in early April and opened again fully the day after Anzac Day when holidays finished. And have all stayed open since. No further cases other than I think a student who caught it late March from a teacher who'd been overseas and a daughter of a baggage handler from Qantas.
 

Denali

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I said the similar to hubby this morning. At least some in position admit that could/should have done it differently but thats the benefit of hindsight.
 

Toula92122

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My thought is before everyone jumps around patting themselves on the back because Sweden was wrong with their approach and they were right, needs to be remembered the game is not over. We have no idea if we are at quarter time or there is only 5 minutes left in the game. Could be a while before we really know what was the best approach.
 

Pushka

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My thought is before everyone jumps around patting themselves on the back because Sweden was wrong with their approach and they were right, needs to be remembered the game is not over. We have no idea if we are at quarter time or there is only 5 minutes left in the game. Could be a while before we really know what was the best approach.
Agree. However all we can do is assess where we are now and Australia seems a better place at the moment. However how all Governments deal with the demos on the weekend will be incredibly challenging.
 

woodborer

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My thought is before everyone jumps around patting themselves on the back because Sweden was wrong with their approach and they were right, needs to be remembered the game is not over. We have no idea if we are at quarter time or there is only 5 minutes left in the game. Could be a while before we really know what was the best approach.
Sweden said they got some things wrong, and it's an accusation you could level at every country, one way or the other. At least they are reflecting on what they got wrong, and they still say they don't think the full lockdown was needed.

It is interesting to see some of the data analysis that has been coming out looking at what worked and what didn't. What struck me is that much of the data supports there was no real need for mass school closures. So I think perhaps the Aust government was right to hold out on the school closure thing, despite the media hysteria demanding the close them (and as soon as they did, started demanding they open them.)

I think a few of the worlds pandemic plans will need a rework!
 

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Sweden said they got some things wrong, and it's an accusation you could level at every country, one way or the other. At least they are reflecting on what they got wrong, and they still say they don't think the full lockdown was needed.
I agree to a certain extent and full marks to the Swedish medical people who are admitting their mistakes, or miscalulations at least; however with Sweden, it's 'wrongness' can be measured, by direct comparison to its neighboring, largely socially and economically equivalent countries. In the following, note not just the shape, but the scale on the left (cases/day) - although they aren't normalised for country population. Even if there is a 'second wave' or a prolonged spell of this, the damage has been done in Sweden, especially in their elderly folk. Source.

1591320073048.png 1591320041187.png 1591320108512.png 1591320160639.png
 

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