EV vs ICE vehicle comparison

[33kft]

However the 4 times what you have spent is basically selective accounting.
Do the Total cost of ownership on a per km basis and come back with an answer first

It isn't. I have a record of every charge I've ever done via the excellent TeslaMate datalogger which also tracks charge cost. There's nothing selective about my overall charge cost in that it even includes the lost FIT that I don't recieve when I charge off solar PV at home.

I didn't suggest it was a TCO calculation as I only compared it to the upcoming service of the VW, not to the TCO of that vehicle. I'm quite sure I know where it would sit if I did, and it wouldn't be in your favour. Anyone else with a european car and a bit of honest recollection would know what I am talking about.

 

[Quickstatus]

I didn't suggest it was a TCO calculation

The only way to compare 2 dissimilar vehicles is to do a cost per km including all the costs of owning/operating the vehicle.

I can guarantee that the cost per km over the total ownership of my VW will come out ahead. Let’s do the sums...

 

[tgh]

diffrn't strokes qs…horses for courses

 

[Quickstatus]

Of course but isolate why people prefer different cars and do the sums on the true cost per km including - depreciation, insurance, servicing, repairs, fuel or cost of electricity (including per kWh cost solar panels) etc
Then irrespective of what the car is you get
Car A = costs X per km
Car B = costs Y per km
Car C = costs Z per km

Then add in the intangibles of personal preference and driving habits and vehicle requirements - I had a 3m ladder on roof bars.
My above 950km example cannot be done by an EV in the same time/ the destination I went to does not have a EV charger

 

[33kft]

I can guarantee that the cost per km over the total ownership of my VW will come out ahead. Let’s do the sums...

I'd be up for that, for science. If you really want to do it feel free to drop me a PM, we could exchange what needs to be exchanged to each other and you could present the result, but I really can't see how it could be the case. I don't even have mandatory logbook servicing. I'd literally be giving you the delivery docket of the vehicle, insurance and my charging records, there's nothing else to give, I've not spent a cent since purchase on servicing or services.

I also agree with @tgh, it is horses for courses and I'm not trying to change your mind, I just dispel obvious incorrect notions about EVs. Unlike ICE vehicles, EVs are new and those who haven't encountered them could be convinced of all sorts of things, and where I see things that I think are incorrect, I correct them. I'm not going to be able to convince a forum full of ICE drivers that they cost a million dollars per year but I can prove that EVs don't.

 

[Quickstatus]

Start with the purchase price of your EV
Mine is $44k
Depreciate both the same. After 3 years it’s worth 30%
So mine depreciated $30,800 in that time.
Say 15000km per year x3 = 45000km

$ depreciated per km driven = 68.4c per km

Fuel economy long term avg =6.1L/100km
Total fuel cost at today’s price 122.9 for 45000km = $3375
Per km = 7.5c per km

68.4 + 75c = 75.9c per km (depreciation + furl)

 

[33kft]

Okay, this is a lot less scientific than I was expecting but let's roll with it

Purchase price $68,000 September 2019
Because that's when the vehicle was released I can only measure it from then to today, but Red Book value is showing $52,000 - $56,000 so I will take the lower of that range. Mine has depreciated $16,000 in that time.

$ depreciated per km driven (which is 22500km for 1.5 yrs) = 71.1c per km

Energy used in that time is 3.23MWh / 20,000km (actual mileage) = avg efficiency of 161.5Wh/km. Actual cost per kWh over 1.5 yrs of operation of 10c/kWh so for your 45000km I would be looking at 7.2675MWh = $726.75. To be fair however, I get that rate from a blend of home charging off solar and supercharging on the rare occasions I drive long distances, so to be totally and completely fair I'm going to take my home flat grid rate (20c/kWh) and add 25% again to that to make my average 25c/kWh because fast DC charging costs around 40c/kWh with Chargefox (minus 20% for my RACV membership) so this is a blending of both home and DC fast charging for people without solar (which assumes I drive long distances and therefore use DC charging 1/4 of the time that I drive which is very generous, and even then I used the full rate without the 20% discount):

7.2675MWh x 25c/kWh charging = $1816.88 = 4.0c per km

71.1 + 4.0c per km = 75.1c per km

Now, when do we start talking about the mandatory services and so on that your car requires per warranty over that period of time, vs mine? Every value I have used above is extremely conservative and much higher than my actual costs, and you've quoted an average fuel price of 122.9. Who's being honest here?

 

[33kft]

Also, it's clear that the calculations above are less favourable to my situation as peak depreciation is going to be in the first year or so and I've extrapolated it out. My vehicle is clearly cheaper to run on an ongoing basis and will continue to be more and more so as I do not have the mechanical maintenance that an ICE vehicle with many more components do.

 

[daft009]

@33kft how do you feel about batteries and then lasting less as time goes on?

That brand new range of 400km is maybe 350km after 4-5yrs?

 

[eastwest101]

Another question that needs to be agreed upon is what is the proposed lifespan of the vehicle, and when will the vehicle be disposed of? After 10 years or after 20 years at end of life? Don't forget to include replacement batteries and/or replacement engine. If disposing after only 5 or 10 years of use will have to guess trade in values to close out the cost of ownership. You are both going to have to agree on reasonable inflation values for increases in fuel prices and increases in electricity prices going forward too.

 

[33kft]

@33kft how do you feel about batteries and then lasting less as time goes on?

That brand new range of 400km is maybe 350km after 4-5yrs?

Realistically, the only way this impacts me is in resale value. Given there's nothing I would see as an upgrade on the market currently from a Tesla Model 3, I don't plan to be trading in anytime soon.

EV driving is not the same as ICE driving. In ICE driving, you fill the tank and run around until it's low, and then fill again.

In EV driving, you unplug and drive, then plug in again. If you don't drive more than those 350km in a day, then you won't be impacted - you'll plug back in and it will charge back up again. I absolutely do not drive more than 350km in a regular day so this in no way impacts me. If I did, I'd have bought a model with closer to 500km range so it continues not to impact me.

For long distance driving, you don't fill to max and then fill up again when it's low, at least not if you know what you're doing. There's a charge curve which charges fast down low in terms of SoC and decreases as you approach a full battery. You just charge what you need, then charge again at the next stop, it's quicker and does not rely on having any particular range other than between the chargers, which are typically ~200km apart.

If you want to see what it looks like in practice, here's a link to A better routeplanner which shows you typical charging behaviour between Melbourne and Sydney. In reality nobody actually needs a website to tell them how to do this, my onscreen nav tells me exactly when I've charged enough to get to my destination and I stop charging then. No point paying DC fast charger rates for electricity I can get cheaper from the grid over AC, so again it's not like an ICE car where you have a single source of fuel, you can choose to charge for half the price over a slower AC charge, so you'll only pay the premium of DC fast charging on long trips:

ABRP

ABetterRouteplanner is the world's most popular consumer EV routeplanner - both for beginner and experienced EV drivers. And of course for anyone curious about EVs.

abetterrouteplanner.com

Note that I wouldn't actually follow the route above - Tesla Superchargers are both more expensive and slower than ChargeFox chargers, which I'd use instead - they can charge up to 350kW, almost double the Tesla Supercharger speeds and at 32c per kWh with RAC[VQT] discount vs 51c for Tesla, so both the charge times and prices on the link above are off what I'd use/pay, but you can see that at no time do I get near 90% SoC so the range loss doesn't affect me. Keep in mind that this is also the lowest range of the 3 Model 3 vehicles, so that trip looks even better for someone with a Performance who has a good 50% additional battery capacity than I do.

 

[33kft]

Another question that needs to be agreed upon is what is the proposed lifespan of the vehicle, and when will the vehicle be disposed of? After 10 years or after 20 years at end of life? Don't forget to include replacement batteries and/or replacement engine.

EVs don't have an engine. They do have DC motors that drive the wheels, but there are plenty of almost 10 year old Model S (released 2012) Teslas still on the road today, with much older technology than my 2019 Model 3 has, that have never required a replacement of either battery or the motors. There's absolutely no reason for a transmissionless, fluidless, straight DC motor to be any more disposable than ICE cars today so I can't see any situation where EVs would need to take this into account over any other vehicle

People's concern about batteries I do understand, as they're new tech and we know they degrade with use. But this has been studied over and over and I'm probably just better off linking you to what the experts say - I should never need to replace my battery, since the batteries are designed to work for much longer distances than my vehicle will ever travel, and I have an 8 year / 160,000 km warranty on my battery which means that if it drops below 70% of capacity in that time, it's replaced for free.

There should be no reason that I should ever need to replace my battery, even if I do keep the vehicle for 10-15 years, by which time the technology will have improved so significantly that I expect I will have upgraded for features and comfort already. Even if I did need one, I'd be paying for 2036's going rate for batteries and not 2021s, and we already know that a replacement battery is around $10k USD today, so by the time I even slightly need to worry about it in 8 years time, it's going to be less than that. By then, other options such as reconditioned packs from EVs that have been scrapped will also be an option, something that just doesn't exist in volume today due to the relatively young age and low proliferation of EVs.

Tableau

public.tableau.com

Tesla Model 3 With 50,000 Miles: Battery Degradation?

The question of how much battery capacity will be lost over time arises with most potential (and new) EV owners. We finally have some related Model 3 data.

insideevs.com

Data Shows Tesla Batteries Lose Less Than 10 Percent Capacity at 160,000 Miles

EVs may eventually outlive most gas-powered cars on the market.

www.thedrive.com

Edit: I am dumb for misreading the question but I keep this here as a data point, because if we were to extend the time horizon of the TCO calculation this is a reminder that we would either need to make the time longer than 8 years or distance longer than 160k km before we could even consider battery replacement outside of warranty, by which time we'd almost be due for the 2nd cam belt replacement in the VW plus all scheduled services inbetween.

 

[33kft]

Sorry @eastwest101, I totally misread your point. Yes, if longer than the 3 years we are using for this TCO calc then we would need to go into much more detail.

I think the assumption was this would be the first 3 years of ownership, hence no major maintenance or overhauls but ICE cars do still need (typically 2-3) services in that time. To be fair Tesla do recommend (but not require) a brake fluid check and cabin filter replacement after 2 years so I can include the cost of that even though it's not mandatory/logbook and does not affect warranty, again just to be fair. I'll look up what the cost of that service with Tesla is and add it into my calcs.

 

[Saltywings]

Tesla Model S P100D driver (MY2018 w/~50k kms on the odo) checking in here.

On the point made about battery degradation, the pithy reassurance is that you are more likely to replace your car before the battery degrades to a point where it meaningfully impacts your driving. See below chart - the vast majority of S/Xs, even after 200k kms are still comfortably above 85% total capacity. While no comparison exists yet for Model 3s (probably can't find that many that have done 200k+ lol), they should have even longer-lasting batteries due to their newer battery chemistry & pack architecture.

Note that the ferquency with which you use supercharging (i.e. 'fast' DC charging) will increase degradation - in the same way that mobile phone manufacturers recommend you not quick charging if you can get away with slow/normal charging. For most drivers with a mostly-urban use case with the occasional road trip as opposed to 4WD road warriors (in which case I wouldn't recommend a pricey EV to begin with), this shouldn't be an issue.

For a car like mine, this means going from 500km of (real world, mixed driving - otherwise NEDC is about 620km) range to about 425km. Personally I won't sweat that, though will acknowledge you might.



Full link to article so I'm not just pulling this out of thin air:

A look at Tesla battery degradation and replacement after 400,000 miles

In this new installment of our series on the highest-mileage Tesla Model X (and one of the highest mileage EVs...

electrek.co

Note this was published in 2020. If anyone cares to check the Tesla site now, you already can't buy a S/X with the kind of battery chem mine has, as the next generation (Long Range, Plaid & Plaid+) models are now the only ones purchasable new, due late-2022 and are almost definitely guaranteed to use a yet-again new & improved battery chem.

 

[jb747]

I don’t have a horse in this race. I quite like the Tesla 3, especially as their current prices seem somewhat more reasonable than they were a year ago. At the time I was buying though, I just couldn’t make it work for my planned driving, though covid killed that plan, and the T3 would have worked well.

But, I’ve just been watching a number of youtube videos dealing with ‘right to repair’, and some of the costs associated with battery issues. They probably apply to all of the car makers, but you really have to wonder how these cars will fare down the road. $16,000 quotes to fix minor issues wouldn’t seem designed to keep customers loyal. Whether these are real, or just very isolated instances remains to be seen. I’m currently eyeing off a 25 year old sports car, and it might be a safer bet…

 

[tgh]

The times they are a changin'...
We are buying a unit "off the plan" .. one question related to EV charging.
The developer is quite "with it" generally.. but they have made no provision in the development for EV charging...
He is giving me a 15 a power outlet near my parking spaces ( akaik metered on the body corporate.. )..., and there is a hp outlet in a shopping centre cp just a minute away.
Au has a bit of catching up to do with the rest of the world.

Tell us all about the 25yo sports car jb….on the other thread please..

 

[33kft]

They probably apply to all of the car makers, but you really have to wonder how these cars will fare down the road. $16,000 quotes to fix minor issues wouldn’t seem designed to keep customers loyal. Whether these are real, or just very isolated instances remains to be seen.

Well, having owned one since Sep 2019 and having hung out in the various Facebook groups I've never, ever heard of this. Anyone can join the groups, I suggest you do if you have any interest for real, since YouTube is nothing but glorified clickbait these days.

There's also all the forums out there if Facebook isn't your cup of tea. If you had an actual forum thread of someone having to shell out $15k for maintenance I'd be reading it with great interest but vague references in YouTube videos are generally as useful as they sound.

 

[Cossie]

Will not even consider one. Issues with batteries, how batteries are made, where the materials for batteries are mined and how they are mined and so on, people seem to think that the batteries just appear, along with the electricity to charge them.
This also is a major factor for me as well.

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

More than happy to wait for hydrogen, even if it is a hyundai.

First hydrogen car fleet registered in Australia, with 20 Hyundai NEXO SUVs set to hit ACT road | Hyundai News | Hyundai Australia

A Hyundai NEXO fleet represents the first deployment of fully certified, ADR-approved Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs). Learn more about the first use of hydrogen vehicles by a Government in Australia.

www.hyundai.com

 

[tgh]

Tech issues with hydrogen but agree that EV is a bit basic in evolutionary terms.
May buy"some" sort of a toy in the next few years and an old steamer is quite attractive

 

[33kft]

Will not even consider one. Issues with batteries, how batteries are made, where the materials for batteries are mined and so on, people seem to think that the batteries just appear, along with the electricity to charge them

People don't tend to think that at all? I'd wager EV owners are more aware of this than anyone else.

I certainly have credentials in this arena as I develop software to charge EVs from solar PV generation and I have a good understanding of the pros and cons of different battery chemistries, cathode compounds and the origins and politics around obtaining these.

If you want to discuss these further I am up for it, but a bunch of room and gloom articles about lithium mining are only part of the story, and don't at all take away from the fact that alternatives today operate on non renewable diminishing fuel reserves and the creation of batteries for EV vs the ongoing consumption of fossil fuels have been studied over and over (as I'll cite shortly) finding that EVs, even in the earliest incarnation today are far less of an environmental burden than the most refined ICE cars are, 150 years after their invention.

More than happy to wait for hydrogen, even if it is a hyundai.

You should start a hydrogen vehicle thread. You won't find many EV owners concerned about hydrogen dominance, it's a technology with promise, far from ubiquity, whose mere existence does not make EVs obselete in the way you seem to think they do.