Emirates load factors on SYD-CHC route

[Mattg]

As many AFFers would know, Emirates flies an Airbus A380 every day between Sydney and Christchurch.

According to the most recent BITRE stats, Emirates filled only ~41% of seats between Sydney and Christchurch in August 2025.

It was around 53% in July 2025, 39% in June 2025 and 44% in May 2025.

April 2025 was 67% on SYD-CHC and 88% on CHC-SYD, so not as bad.

Hopefully this isn't a sign that the route is starting to really struggle. It would be a shame to completely lose Emirates service across the Tasman.

 

[L2.]

I did a round trip on this route last month, and on the outbound leg had a completely full flight on the lower deck at least, as on the previous day CHC had been closed for most of the day due to severe winds, leading to mass cancellations.

QF ran an A330 on SYD-CHC to clear their backlog that day. I'm sure the A380's spare capacity probably helped a bit too!

Coming back was a different story though. I had a row to myself towards the front of the Y cabin, but I noted whilst they were boarding the upper deck (which is interestingly done from a different gate in CHC!) that only about 20 passengers came forward for boarding, so it would have been very empty in J and F unless there was a very last second surge from the lounge.

 

[SYD]

As many AFFers would know, Emirates flies an Airbus A380 every day between Sydney and Christchurch.

According to the most recent BITRE stats, Emirates filled only ~41% of seats between Sydney and Christchurch in August 2025.

It was around 53% in July 2025, 39% in June 2025 and 44% in May 2025.

April 2025 was 67% on SYD-CHC and 88% on CHC-SYD, so not as bad.

Hopefully this isn't a sign that the route is starting to really struggle. It would be a shame to completely lose Emirates service across the Tasman.

and the one route with reliable EK F/J CR seats for months out. Nothing now beyond March 2026 to DXB.

 

[Warragul]

As many AFFers would know, Emirates flies an Airbus A380 every day between Sydney and Christchurch.

According to the most recent BITRE stats, Emirates filled only ~41% of seats between Sydney and Christchurch in August 2025.

It was around 53% in July 2025, 39% in June 2025 and 44% in May 2025.

April 2025 was 67% on SYD-CHC and 88% on CHC-SYD, so not as bad.

Hopefully this isn't a sign that the route is starting to really struggle. It would be a shame to completely lose Emirates service across the Tasman.

Does that include those travelling DXB-CHC? Admittedly that would not be huge numbers and personal experience was a half empty plane.

I thought I read somewhere that they uplift lots of cargo- only widebody aircraft between SYD-CHC. If true, that would help the balance sheet.

 

[Mwenenzi]

As many AFFers would know, Emirates flies an Airbus A380 every day between Sydney and Christchurch.
According to the most recent BITRE stats, Emirates filled only ~41% of seats between Sydney and Christchurch in August 2025.

It was around 53% in July 2025, 39% in June 2025 and 44% in May 2025.
April 2025 was 67% on SYD-CHC and 88% on CHC-SYD, so not as bad.

Hopefully this isn't a sign that the route is starting to really struggle. It would be a shame to completely lose Emirates service across the Tasman.

NZ govt stat reports 150~200 people a day are leaving NZ permanently. Most for AU. Hence load factors higher out of Kiwiland are common.

 

[SeatBackForward]

NZ govt stat reports 150~200 people a day are leaving NZ permanently

Are they being squeezed out by all the billionaires that want refuge in NZ as the world they helped destroy becomes harder to live in?

 

[AviationNZ]

NZ govt stat reports 150~200 people a day are leaving NZ permanently. Most for AU. Hence load factors higher out of Kiwiland are common.

Given there are thousands of Kiwi tourists and VFR travellers flying daily from NZ to AU, and thousands of Aussie tourists coming to NZ each day, I don't think the recent migrant numbers would be any reason for higher load factors ex NZ...if that's even a qualified fact.