Christmas op-ups and inability to select seating

[Isochronous]

I'm flying PE HKG-SYD-MEL return around Christmas (ex HKG 22/12 to be exact) and FlightStats is showing the following:

[TD="class: availSeatsLabel, align: right"]First:[/TD]
[TD="class: availSeatsValue"] 9 (at least)
F/9 A/8 P/0 [/TD]
[TD="class: availSeatsLabel, align: right"]Business:[/TD]
[TD="class: availSeatsValue"] 9 (at least)
J/9 C/9 D/9 I/0 U/0 [/TD]
[TD="class: availSeatsLabel, align: right"]Coach:[/TD]
[TD="class: availSeatsValue"] 9 (at least)
W/1 R/0 T/0 Z/0
Y/9 B/9 H/9 K/9 M/9
L/0 V/0 S/0 N/0 Q/0 O/0 G/0 X/0 E/0 [/TD]
[TD="class: availSeatsLabel, align: right"]Other:[/TD]
[TD="class: availSeatsValue"] n/a [/TD]

What are my op-up chances like as a WP? I've actually never flown PE on any carrier before so am interested to try it for the first time, but was just curious if this is likely given the time of year and the CX flights looking full/oversold at that time too. I could put in for a points upgrade for 25k points but I'm hoarding atm so I can redeem a 280k award soon.

Also, on my SYD-MEL connection QF427 (it is a 767 apparently) it won't let me allocate seating - although it is fine with all the other seats. Why would this be? FlightStats is showing plenty of availability, and all the other flights let me select without issues.

 

[Happy Trails]

That's probably as good as it gets, a month out, for prospectiveness for an op-up from PE, but nothing is certain of course.
I was in a similar situation on QF128 in January and I thought my chances were good - P1, end of school hols, Y & PE oversold with space in J & F.
But it wasn't to be, presumably trumped by points upgrades (which is fair enough).
PE is not too painful for nine hours if that's where you find yourself.
OTOH, on my most recent QF127 / QF128 I did points upgrades from PE and ended up with F in both directions.

 

[Awesom Andy]

Y is not oversold, so there would be virtually no upgrades, operational or points, from Y to Y+. Which means, you'll have to rely on an overbooked Y+ cabin to get an op-up. With points upgrade, VIP, CL, and WP1 in front of you, I would probably put my own points down to try to get a sky bed instead of hoping to get it free. Also keep in mind that, if you don't get upgraded, you're stuck in a 100% full Y+ cabin, and you aren't going to have a spare seat next to you.

On the other hand, if all Y booking classes go to zero as well, it's probably worth a gamble for an op-up.

 

[serfty]

Y is not oversold, so there would be virtually no upgrades, operational or points, from Y to Y+. Which means, you'll have to rely on an overbooked Y+ cabin to get an op-up. With points upgrade, VIP, CL, and WP1 in front of you, I would probably put my own points down to try to get a sky bed instead of hoping to get it free. Also keep in mind that, if you don't get upgraded, you're stuck in a 100% full Y+ cabin, and you aren't going to have a spare seat next to you.

On the other hand, if all Y booking classes go to zero as well, it's probably worth a gamble for an op-up.

The lack discount bucket availability could simply be Qantas Yield managent not wishing to sell them during this peak season.

The lack of a 'gradient' (i.e. H9 K9 M9 L0 V0 S0 rather than H9 K8 M5 L3 V1 S0) indicates so.

That is not to post though, that economy won't indeed be oversold come December.