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China - never a dull moment!

Scarlett

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With the CCPs now blatantly obvious policy shift to being unfriendly to most things Australian, it'll be interesting to see if any of our regular travelers notice any changes when they can resume travel.
Bureaucratic embuggerances may be simpler to implement than any real effect on direct business to business relationships, but who knows how far the effects will reach from Australia being placed in the naughty corner...
 

MEL_Traveller

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... it'll be interesting to see if any of our regular travelers notice any changes when they can resume travel.
At the moment DFAT has issued a 'do not travel'. If nothing else, travel insurance would be voided which makes it unappealing even if people want to go :(
 
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Yep waters certainly a tad muddy at moment - who knows where it will end - I guess we will all reevaluate if and when ability to travel without quarantining either end becomes a reality - until then it's 'pray for the best before opening that container door' - some of the surprises we have had in last 4 containers as a result of inability to travel for QC inspection prior to dispatch certainly have been eye popping!
 

tgh

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Will the Chinese power seeking ego usurp commercial common sense ?
They have a long history as traders ; existing and thriving in all sorts of geopolitical environments
Folks are pretty sensitive and it would take little to see a worldwide aversion to Chinese manufacturing.
We have , of course, like most of the world (especially the US) happily abrogated our manufacturing independence.
A Cold war environment would be an economic short term disaster as we struggled to source critical stuff that the Chinese have all sewn up.
 
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TBH I am expecting nothing other than 'Business as Usual' when we can travel again to China - but as usual with China 'Always EXPECT the UNEXPECTED' - it is after all 'The land of COMPLICATION and CONTRADICTION'

My expectations are based on a 20+ year history of 8 - 10 trips to China annually - time will tell
 

seanpodge

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Nothing really happening up here as far as "special" treatment for Australians goes so far. Have had to deal with law enforcement a few times in the last 3 or so months for visa renewal and registration issues and it's been the same slow, bureaucratic but ultimately fine and fair service as usual. A lack of kangaroo effigies hanging from lampposts in the streets is also noticeable.
 

p--and--t

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Not been in a position to do business in China (yet).

I have always been a bit bemused when visiting mainland china (as opposed to the special territories and Taiwan).

In several trips to the country, a country with such a long history of learning and invention, some great scholars and very industrious focus on trade; I saw some amazing sites and meet some really nice people; but seemingly I was surrounded by chaos, confusion, lack of logical thinking, bureaucracy, inefficiency and impatience/rudeness of many locals. The two-faced behaviour took me aback a few times. For example, a hotel forcing me to sign a declaration that I understood locals laws that prostitution was illegal and no visitors we permitted in room. Yet the hotel itself employed prostitutes who accosted visitors in the hotel Karaoke bar who constantly pressured to go up to your room.

By contrast Taiwan was logical, straight forward, efficient, hygienic, well organised and everyone I encountered was polite and friendly and super helpful.
 
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In several trips to the country, a country with such a long history of learning and invention, some great scholars and very industrious focus on trade; I saw some amazing sites and meet some really nice people; but seemingly I was surrounded by chaos, confusion, lack of logical thinking, bureaucracy, inefficiency and impatience/rudeness of many locals. The two-faced behaviour took me aback a few times. For example, a hotel forcing me to sign a declaration that I understood locals laws that prostitution was illegal and no visitors we permitted in room. Yet the hotel itself employed prostitutes who accosted visitors in the hotel Karaoke bar who constantly pressured to go up to your room.
I repeat ……………………………… it is after all 'The land of COMPLICATION and CONTRADICTION'
 

daft009

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Not been in a position to do business in China (yet).

I have always been a bit bemused when visiting mainland china (as opposed to the special territories and Taiwan).

In several trips to the country, a country with such a long history of learning and invention, some great scholars and very industrious focus on trade; I saw some amazing sites and meet some really nice people; but seemingly I was surrounded by chaos, confusion, lack of logical thinking, bureaucracy, inefficiency and impatience/rudeness of many locals. The two-faced behaviour took me aback a few times. For example, a hotel forcing me to sign a declaration that I understood locals laws that prostitution was illegal and no visitors we permitted in room. Yet the hotel itself employed prostitutes who accosted visitors in the hotel Karaoke bar who constantly pressured to go up to your room.

By contrast Taiwan was logical, straight forward, efficient, hygienic, well organised and everyone I encountered was polite and friendly and super helpful.
Do as I say, not as I do?

Also the ones at the bar are probably paying a cut to the hotel I'm sure ;)
 
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MEL_Traveller

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Yep waters certainly a tad muddy at moment - who knows where it will end - I guess we will all reevaluate if and when ability to travel without quarantining either end becomes a reality - until then it's 'pray for the best before opening that container door' - some of the surprises we have had in last 4 containers as a result of inability to travel for QC inspection prior to dispatch certainly have been eye popping!
Countries are looking to build this 'ring of resilience'... India, Japan, Australia and potentially other ASEAN countries to provide the products currently made in China.

They have suites to India :D

... but seemingly I was surrounded by chaos, confusion, lack of logical thinking, bureaucracy, inefficiency and impatience/rudeness of many locals.
Lol. Spend enough time there and all of those things begin to make sense :)
 

daft009

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Countries are looking to build this 'ring of resilience'... India, Japan, Australia and potentially other ASEAN countries to provide the products currently made in China.

They have suites to India :D



Lol. Spend enough time there and all of those things begin to make sense :)
India has a great opportunity here provided they stop their in fighting on who has the better religion and work as one country..

Plenty of Neanderthals there who play the religion/caste card for everything
 
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And the supply chain from China tightens even more - yesterday we placed our biggest order in our history for production ...................... in Apr to Jun 2021 - 7-9mths lead to to assembly - 8-10mths lead time to delivery to MEL - and if we don’t jump in the queue and pay deposit now we will miss out completely!

Any fortune tellers care to share their knowledge as to economic climate mid 2021?

Component suppliers jacked prices >10% over last month or 2 - sea rates are >2.5 times rates we paid in 2019 and anticipated to go higher - it’s a brave new world out there!
 

mushez

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- sea rates are >2.5 times rates we paid in 2019 and anticipated to go higher
Sea Rates are only higher due to the Typhons that went through almost a month ago and the low capacity being run currently that makes that a bigger hickup than it normally would be.

Capacity will be added now the rates are where they want them to be should the capacity be needed. They are not going to add capacity to see the rates reduce.
 
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Sea Rates are only higher due to the Typhons that went through almost a month ago and the low capacity being run currently that makes that a bigger hickup than it normally would be.

Capacity will be added now the rates are where they want them to be should the capacity be needed. They are not going to add capacity to see the rates reduce.
Maybe so - maybe not - FLC rates month on month 2019 20ft/USD600 - 40ftHQ/$1000

Currect rates ex Shanghai:
POL:Shanghai / POD:Melbourne
Carrier:ONE
ETD:Mon(18 days,waigaoqiao); Wed(20 days,yangshan)
O/F:USD1430/20GP;USD2810/40GP;USD2910/40HQ : Sept.30
Pls kindly space is very tight,it is booked till Oct now


Curent rates ex Ningbo:
OOCL USD 1435/2785/2785 ETD:SUN T/T: 14 DAYS DIRECT CALL VALID TILL: Sept.30
COSCO USD 1495/2915/2915 ETD: SUN T/T: 14 DAYS DIRECT CALL VALID TILL: Sept.30
HAPAG-LIYD USD 1505/2915/2915 ETD: SAT T/T: 12 DAYS DIRECT CALL VALID TILL : Sept.30
Now space are very tight , we'd better book with carrier in advance to secure the space .


20ft in 2019 ~USD600 to ~USD1450 and 40ftHQ 2019 ~$1000 to ~USD2900 - when customers screaming for stock and cartons are packed we don't wait for a nice sunny day to wave goodbye as ship sails.

Maybe no typhoons 2019 - or maybe there was. Relevant point is that supply for many items going forward will be short if any available - go look in a K-Mart Store - and upward pressure on prices - just info for the consumers and not meant to be a debating point in any way.
 
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mushez

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Overall, demand is down in 2020 than 2019 in container volumes.

In March, services got canceled, ships parked up, and the current services that operate have seen the ships used reduced in size to see the capacity we have today vrs 12 months ago reduce.

Being in Brisbane - our services have been canceled - and we now piggy back on ships that go from China via Melbourne and Sydney first - where these services only called in Sydney or Melbourne due to port container tax in SYD and MEL.

It is also because of federal government requiring 14 days since last port in China to first port in Australia. MEL is 14 days without delay China - MEL, vrs China to BNE is 11 days. So sending ships to MEL direct from China, chews up the 14 days, and then they work back up the coast.

$800-$1,100 USD for a 20ft FCL has been the "norm" over the past 16 years I have been in the game. $600 prices we saw in 2019 was low and the economy was in the shitter well before COVID-19.

$1,400 USD is well in the realm of where rates go.

I personally find Port Service charges to be the biggest rort. Paying $800 AUD just to take a container off a ship and put it on the port for 3 days. Or container transport - charging $600 AUD to transport a container 20km from the port.

***************************

I guess my point is $1,400 USD has been seen before, and isn't a special COVID-19 extreme price or issue. Nor was $600 rates from 2019 was a normal base rate to try to compare this years prices to.

$800-$1,100 USD per 20ft is the norm from my experience. $600-$1,400 are at the extreme ends. When you see rates at the extreeme ends, you start to see capacity being played with to keep prices within the extreme ends of the price range and eventually get back to $800-$1,100 normal range.
 

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