Chances of getting bumped

[Blue Peter]

As a frequent flyer I have generally always been able to pick my seat when I book (at least for long-haul flights). My perception has been that this was "my" seat so long as I presented myself for check-in (either in person or on-line) according to the regulations.
I have been asked if I would be interested in travelling another day as the flight was overbooked, but I have never been told that "my" seat was not there for me if I wanted it - which I always have.
I know the airline will always say that even the reservation is not a guarantee of travel in a certain class on a certain flight on a certain day, but is my assumption a fair one? Does that seat allocation effectively mean they will always look to those without an allocation to bump?

 

[Mal]

Does that seat allocation effectively mean they will always look to those without an allocation to bump?

It depends on what criteria the airline uses to bump people.
Is it a sign at Check-in offering $x to go tomorrow? Do they just wait for the last few people to check-in and bump them? Do they choose people who don't have a seat allocated and they've assigned all other seats? Do they go down the manifest and choose a single traveller who has no other connections?

Being a FF, you have a smaller chance of being bumped (you should be one of the last to be 'inconvenienced') , but it's still possible.

 

[NM]

Remember that in the USA, many high status FF members actually ask to be put on the bump waitlist. In fact, some actually book flights at busy peak travel times (like 4th July, Thanksgiving etc) hoping they will be bumped. They can make more out of bump compensation that the flight cost them in the first place.

Thankfully this attitude and approach has not infiltrated the Australian aviation industry yet.

And as for the original question, there are plenty of examples here and on other forums of people having their pre-allocated seat changed to a different seat. Its unusual to be bumped from a flight in Australia unless there is a last minute change of aircraft or similar event that results in less seats being available than expected. But it can happen. For an airline like Qantas, they are unlikely to bump a high-status FF member off the flight. But they may re-allocate anyone to any seat in the cabin they have booked. If bumped off the flight or involuntarily down-graded to a lower cabin, then compensation is due. If reallocated to a different seat in the same cabin, then no compensation is owed.