CBR-DOH flights foreshadowed

[earlyriser]

Slightly OT, but the Tiger CBR-MEL route seems to be quite popular. Squished in like sardines during a recent trip with similar lines ready to get on the return flight.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Hard to draw any conclusions from this article, and the quote you've taken from it, which discusses the first full month of operations. Could be a little deceptive as to real story (or not). It would be more interesting to look at last two months.

There are evidently figures through December but they're unlikely to show any significant (positive) change. In any event, SQ obviously has all the relevant data and two weeks ago it/they "announced a review of its international flights to and from Canberra". That's not conclusive but it's doubtful that reflects good performance.

Slightly OT, but the Tiger CBR-MEL route seems to be quite popular. Squished in like sardines during a recent trip with similar lines ready to get on the return flight.

The CBR market (and the wider catchment area) has no love for domestic connections, but may have been more price-sensitive than SQ expected. Re LCCs, I'm inclined to think that Scoot would actually do well out of CBR. Other airlines have hinted about considering CBR but presumably all eyes, including QR's, are on the viability of the Capital Express.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/international_airline_activity-monthly_publications.aspx

City pair stats are available through Jan 2017, though indeed Feb/Mar will be more revealing than the atypical Dec/Jan months.

The small, flawed data set shows no significant change between Oct and Jan for the SIN-CBR pair, so if they weren't happy with Oct they wouldn't have been any happier by the end of Jan. It will be interesting to see whether numbers changed significantly in Feb/Mar.

CBR-WLG loads were between 50-57% relative to SIN/CBR , spiking to 65% in Jan when the number of inbound pax was almost double the low in Dec. Outbound remained fairly constant throughout the period. Again it will be interesting to see Feb/Mar and whether the spike was sustained or fleeting.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Qatar Airways to launch Canberra-Doha flights in February 2018 - Australian Business Traveller

Qatar Airways will begin flights to Canberra in February 2018, with the Gulf airline tipped to roll out its latest Airbus A350 on the route.

The long-awaited launch was among the new routes promoted this week at Dubai's Arabian Travel Market, although the Oneworld airline has not confirmed if the flights would be routed via Sydney, as previously tipped by CEO Akbar Al Baker.

Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker, speaking with Aviation Week following the launch of the airline's direct Doha-Auckland flight, predicted the Canberra flights would launch in February 2018 provided current limits on international flights between Australia and Qatar are loosened.

Those limits cap the number flights with the Qatar flag-carrier can make in Australia, and Qatar Airways has already hit the ceiling – although future discussions could allow more flights ot lead to an unrestricted 'open skies' arrangement between the two countries.

 

[Mattg]

The devil will be in the detail... of which there still isn't any.

 

[Himeno]

The devil will be in the detail... of which there still isn't any.

The 'new' ausbt story is also an almost exact copy of one posted a couple of months ago.

QR does not need any change to the air service agreement to start service to CBR. Even if said service goes via SYD.
SYD/BNE/PER/MEL are limited and they are at that limit. Elsewhere is unlimited. They are allowed 7/week to the capped ports, provided said flight goes to/via an unlimited port.

 

[moa999]

The 'new' ausbt story is also an almost exact copy of one posted a couple of months ago..

It contains some updated info.
The Feb date which appeared on QR posters at a trade show.
The AlAkbar quote which suggests some government approvals are still needed

 

[docjames]

Surely they are just lining up an extra DOH-SYD-DOH flight with a CBR tag to get around the air service restrictions to SYD.....

 

[Daver6]

I wonder if you could just book the SYD-CBR sectors? Nice way to avoid the Dash 8.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I wonder if you could just book the SYD-CBR sectors? Nice way to avoid the Dash 8.

For QR's own stopover traffic - maybe.

 

[Melburnian1]

For QR's own stopover traffic - maybe.

Yes, that is generally permitted, but as discussed above 'no way' for purely domestic journeys.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Singapore Airlines' Canberra flights draw few to the capital - The Canberra Times

Singapore Airlines to review Singapore to Canberra to Wellington route - ABC News

February statistics are available, offering a more useful data point than the atypical/distortive December & January.

* SIN-CBR inbound = 2599 (Oct); 2192 (Nov); [Dec/Jan]; 2107 (Feb).
* CBR-SIN outbound = 2011 (Oct); 2056 (Nov); [Dec/Jan]; 1476 (Feb).

* WLG-CBR inbound = 1222 (Oct); 1201 (Nov); [Dec/Jan]; 1148 (Feb).
* CBR-WLG outbound = 1163 (Oct); 1218 (Nov); [Dec/Jan]; 1176 (Feb).

Obviously it's a young route and every additional month will be informative and could change the picture significantly. But it's unsurprising that Singapore would review the operation given those numbers.

 

[Mattg]

February statistics are available, offering a more useful data point than the atypical/distortive December & January.

* SIN-CBR inbound = 2599 (Oct); 2192 (Nov); [Dec/Jan]; 2107 (Feb).
* CBR-SIN outbound = 2011 (Oct); 2056 (Nov); [Dec/Jan]; 1476 (Feb).

* WLG-CBR inbound = 1222 (Oct); 1201 (Nov); [Dec/Jan]; 1148 (Feb).
* CBR-WLG outbound = 1163 (Oct); 1218 (Nov); [Dec/Jan]; 1176 (Feb).

Obviously it's a young route and every additional month will be informative and could change the picture significantly. But it's unsurprising that Singapore would review the operation given those numbers.

Out of interest, where did you get those numbers? And do you know if they include connecting traffic (i.e. passengers flying SIN-WLG) or just CBR O&D pax?

 

[Strategic Aviation]

http://www.australianfrequentflyer....flights-foreshadowed-79657-5.html#post1618209

From the reports' Explanatory Notes:-

3. These statistics show uplift/discharge data – These data detail, by direction, the revenue traffic between the actual points of uplift and discharge within each flight, aggregated for all flights within the period. It shows the movement of traffic between two airports not necessarily directly connected but within the same flight number. Typically, flight numbers change when an aircraft reaches its home country. This means that uplift/discharge data for the port in the operator's home country are likely to be overstated by traffic whose origin/destination point is beyond that port. For example, uplift/discharge traffic reported in this publication as Singapore could include traffic whose origin/destination is Europe.

8. Table 5 – shows uplift/discharge passenger and freight data for city pairs with “same flight number” international flight connections.

 

[dajop]

http://www.australianfrequentflyer....flights-foreshadowed-79657-5.html#post1618209

From the reports' Explanatory Notes:-

So it shows people travelling between the two ports on a single flight number. So it would not include SIN-WLG traffic, as they are not listed as travelling SIN-CBR or CBR-WLG or vv.

 

[ajw373]

Out of interest, where did you get those numbers? And do you know if they include connecting traffic (i.e. passengers flying SIN-WLG) or just CBR O&D pax?

Those figures don't show SIN-WLG end to end traffic. These stats are gathered from passenger cards when you arrive/depart Australia. So does not count transit traffic.

 

[Mattg]

Thanks for the info. Either way, it would appear that the CBR-WLG flights are less full overall than the CBR-SIN sectors. No wonder my last few WLG-CBR bookings have cost $150.

 

[Melburnian1]

February statistics are available, offering a more useful data point than the atypical/distortive December & January.

* SIN-CBR inbound = 2599 (Oct); 2192 (Nov); [Dec/Jan]; 2107 (Feb).
* CBR-SIN outbound = 2011 (Oct); 2056 (Nov); [Dec/Jan]; 1476 (Feb).

* WLG-CBR inbound = 1222 (Oct); 1201 (Nov); [Dec/Jan]; 1148 (Feb).
* CBR-WLG outbound = 1163 (Oct); 1218 (Nov); [Dec/Jan]; 1176 (Feb).

Obviously it's a young route and every additional month will be informative and could change the picture significantly. But it's unsurprising that Singapore would review the operation given those numbers.

From my reading of the BITRE's Table 3 for February 2017, outbound from CBR to WLG, seat occupancy was 66.3 per cent: 2830 of 4256 available seats (with 23 flights operated in February) were occupied. This includes all passengers travellng to WLG, irrespective as to whether they joined in CBR or SIN, and similarly all passengers on board departing from WLG to Oz, including those continuing to SIN.

Inbound, from WLG to CBR, 2610 seats were occupied giving a seat occupancy rate of 61.3 per cent.

As Strategic Aviation implies, both SQ and we observers need to give this route a few more months to become better known. February is a low travel volume month but it is better for comparisons than December or January.

Provided the economies do not crash, over time, routes such as this should increase in patronage (assuming fares are competitively priced.) It is however yield - reasonable or poor - that ultimately determines a route's fate.

 

[ajw373]

From my reading of the BITRE's Table 3 for February 2017, outbound from CBR to WLG, seat occupancy was 66.3 per cent: 2830 of 4256 available seats (with 23 flights operated in February) were occupied. This includes all passengers travellng to WLG, irrespective as to whether they joined in CBR or SIN, and similarly all passengers on board departing from WLG to Oz, including those continuing to SIN.

Inbound, from WLG to CBR, 2610 seats were occupied giving a seat occupancy rate of 61.3 per cent.

As Strategic Aviation implies, both SQ and we observers need to give this route a few more months to become better known. February is a low travel volume month but it is better for comparisons than December or January.

Provided the economies do not crash, over time, routes such as this should increase in patronage (assuming fares are competitively priced.) It is however yield - reasonable or poor - that ultimately determines a route's fate.

As mentioned before the data does not capture through traffic SIN-WLG. These figures are those passengers that started or ended their travel in Canberra. It does not count those who transited Canberra.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

(assuming fares are competitively priced.)

If they aren't particularly competitive at the moment then they can drop prices to improve loads, but presumably they didn't enter a new monopoly market just to still price-compete with the established alternatives.

If they are priced competitively then some other factor(s) is evidently working against them, going by the initial lack of growth, which probably doesn't bode well for sustainability.

Things could still improve ... but equally they could remain at an undesirable plateau, or worsen. It would be fascinating to know what their projections/targets were - and what the tipping point for the route is.