Cancel upgrade request for chance of an op-up, should I risk it?

[Happy Trails]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]I'm booked QF77 PER-SIN on Wednesday and It's looking now as if Y is just about sold out while there are still plenty of seats in J, so there might be a chance of an op-up.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]I have a long-standing upgrade request in place so the question is: should I cancel it, save the points and take a chance on an op-up?[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]I think I already know the answer; I [/FONT][FONT=Arial, sans-serif]don't mind a bit of a gamble.[/FONT]

 

[Dave Noble]

I would not gamble on getting an involuntary upgrade. If you want a reasonable chance to travel in business class, then leave the upgrade request in place

 

[BensAdventures]

I got lucky last year on an LAX-MEL trip where I had an upgrade request that was ignored and instead I got an op-up. I didn't realise for a few days til I looked at my account and found my points were still there. You could too get lucky....

 

[serfty]

What booking class are you in? H? V? S? That can have a bearing on both Points upgrades and operational upgrades.

IMHO this is a nice comfortable day flight I would not generally consider a point upgrade for such - using My WP to preallocate a reasonable seat. Personally, I would cancel the request, hang on to the 24K QFF points and wait and see.

FWIW, there are only 3 of the 30 skybeds allocated and the flight is showing J8 C6 D6 I5 Y0 ... with those figures a WP points upgrade would be likely to succeed. Also there is a better than normal chance of an op-up for a WP.

As in all these cases, you should expect to travel in the cabin booked.

 

[cmon0005]

Personally, because it is only just over 5 hours flight time and in the afternoon, I would not use my points to upgrade and would rather sit in Y or hope for an opup.

As Serfty mentioned your Fare class will indeed have a bearing on this, as does your status.
Seatcounter this morning is showing that Y is full, however if you do a dummy check on the Qantas site they're still offering Y bookings in the Flexi Saver fare type. Hence it would seem that over booking is in effect, and your chances of OPUP are very good.

However don't rely on this, and if you really want to sit in J then use your points.

 

[Sprucegoose]

Be sure to report back and good luck.

sage advice from Serfty - always expect to travel in the class booked.

Cheers

SPRUCE

 

[MelUser]

I would never cancel an upgrade request - why put even more to chance!

 

[Happy Trails]

Thanks all for the comments.

I think I'll go with Serfty's advice; cancel the request and leave it to pot-luck - I was leaning that way in any case.

Might be easier on my liver too if don't get an upgrade.

I'll let you know what happens.

 

[harvyk]

Thanks all for the comments.

I think I'll go with Serfty's advice; cancel the request and leave it to pot-luck - I was leaning that way in any case.

Might be easier on my liver too if don't get an upgrade.

I'll let you know what happens.

That's probably the best way to go... I'd personally be expecting to travel in Y, as Op-Up's are rare as hens teeth, the only reason why you hear of so many people here getting them is because

A. There are a lot of us

and

B. We all fly A LOT...

The chances of getting an op-up on any one flight (keep in mind that there is probably 150 other odd people all hoping for the ever elusive op-up, you can't all get one) is pretty slim.

 

[Happy Trails]

Well it worked, on this occasion anyway. Just checked in and was given BP for 1F, though nothing was said by the person on the desk.
I thought it looked promising last night when I checked the seating and saw that row 23 had opened up. When I tried to switch from my original 37F it wouldn't let me. And then my seat allocation disappeared altogether.
It's interesting to validate the theory.
BTW, my first international op-up from QF in living memory.

 

[serfty]

Congratulations. Commiserations (in advance) re your Liver.

The availability indicated your operational upgrade chances were reasonable (J8 C6 D6 I5 Y0 ...).

With J8 and only 3 seats showing pre-allocated the other day, I have a feeling that Qantas were overselling WHY and underselling J (J8).

 

[straitman]

Excellent outcome.

Congratulations.

 

[Fifa]

Congratulations.
How many passsengers did you count in J???

 

[flychrisfly]

Good gamble! Congrats!!

 

[Happy Trails]

Congratulations.
How many passsengers did you count in J???

Thanks,
Sorry, I didn't think to count but it certainly seemed very full.
I'm guessing that maybe 10+ people got upgraded, based on how the seating allocations changed in the 24hrs before departure.

 

[FreqwentFlya]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]I'm booked QF77 PER-SIN on Wednesday and It's looking now as if Y is just about sold out while there are still plenty of seats in J, so there might be a chance of an op-up.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]I have a long-standing upgrade request in place so the question is: should I cancel it, save the points and take a chance on an op-up?[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]I think I already know the answer; I [/FONT][FONT=Arial, sans-serif]don't mind a bit of a gamble.[/FONT]

ALWAYS take the gamble for fun.

 

[Davo70]

Nice work thud. Has your liver forgiven you yet ?

 

[Ewing]

Looks like an upcoming flight of mine (QF11 on the 18th) has gone crazy in Y:
F9 A9 J8 C0 D0 I0 W2 R0 T0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 VC SC NC QC OC XC E0

Every morning over the past few days Y increases to 3-4 and B gets 1 or 2 seats. They're all gone by afternoon though. W was on 9 the other day as well.

I'm booked in R with a seat that I'm very happy with (38K on the A380, with 38J currently blocked) so I decided to save the points and cancel my upgrade request.

E/F shows 2 out of 14 seats assigned in F, 61 out of 72 in J and 22 out of 32 in W (I can't be bothered counting Y).

Interesting dynamics anyway. I'm particularly excited about this flight for a couple of reasons:
1) It's my last flight on QF metal as Gold. I will be at ~1,350 SCs after this flight, and my connecting flight out of LAX will push me over the 1,400 mark (first time Platinum).
2) It's my first international business trip as a single traveller (excluding trans tasman) - although at 26 years of age I'm sure there's plenty more to come.
3) Second flight on the A380

Anyway - I'll be very happy if an op-up comes my way (however unlikely as an SG), but if not I'm still going to be quite happy with my seat assignment

On a related note - ever since I went over 1,000 SCs (all on QF metal) I seem to be getting better seating. Domestic seating has been great, and International seating even better - as above I was given 38K in each direction on the A380 (which looks like the best seat in the cabin) and on an upcoming SYD-WLG-SYD trip I was assigned 4F in each direction at booking (the front row of Y) - no need to check 'select seats' for a better seat in that scenario

-Shaun

 

[serfty]

...

Anyway - I'll be very happy if an op-up comes my way (however unlikely as an SG), but if not I'm still going to be quite happy with my seat assignment

-Shaun

win ... win for you.

I'd cancel the upgrade request too. If you were WP, the chances of an op-up would be far less remote than normal. SG - well, who knows - in a similar availability situation last year, QP members were summoned in the J lounge for upgraded BPs.

 

[Ewing]

win ... win for you.

I'd cancel the upgrade request too. If you were WP, the chances of an op-up would be far less remote than normal. SG - well, who knows - in a similar availability situation last year, QP members were summoned in the J lounge for upgraded BPs.

Sounds good.

The flight has continued its trend, but now W has joined the pact - both W and Y have been opening up each morning and then disappearing in the afternoon while maintaining availability in the higher cabins:
F9 A9 J9 C0 D0 I0 W2 R0 T0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 VC SC NC QC OC XC E0

I'm also getting "Your flight is not eligible for seat selection" if I try to use "Select Seats" now. I guess I'll find out on Sunday

It's almost a pity that it's not like that when I return on the 25th, as I'll be WP then