Business class to US Nov 2016, using AA SWUs

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bernardblack

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Cross-posting from FlyerTalk because Australian-specific knowledge might be helpful:
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So I just hit EXP (with a quick mileage run to the US tacked onto a business trip to London, to get the last few miles and the sectors on AA metal). I'm planning a family trip (wife, two small kids, me) to the US at the end of next year. My wife needs to be able to have uninterrupted sleep for medical reasons, which means for long-haul we need to fly J. (No complaints here; after business travel it's really hard to go back to Y, as BA183 LHR-JFK reminded me.)
So I'm planning to book economy tickets SYD-LAX-MCO and LAX-SYD, and then put SWUs on my wife's tickets and mine. (I also have enough VA miles to do this with them, which will be my fallback, but I'd prefer to use the SWUs while they're valid.) My kids will likely be accompanied in economy by a family member.
So, some questions:
Our planned trip starts late November (I'm meant to work until 2016-Nov-25) and ends late January (kids' school starts 2017-Jan-30). In terms of optimizing the chance of SWUs clearing...
1. Can I buy an open-ended ticket or a changeable/refundable one, as soon as the outbound sector opens for booking in a couple of weeks, so as to confirm the return sector later? Is it worth paying more to do this, so I can waitlist the outbound SWUs sooner?
2. Our outbound timing is approximately Thanksgiving. Am I correct to conclude that the transpac sector won't be much affected by Thanksgiving? If anything, there may be slightly less business traffic?
3. What's the optimal day on the Thanksgiving weekend to fly SYD-LAX-MCO? Would a Saturday departure (arr early Saturday LAX, transcontinental Saturday) be OK? Would Friday be better? I imagine Sunday would be the worst.
4. Are our chances of clearing SWUs better if I waitlist two together (both with my EXP status) or separately?
5. If I clear because of status but my wife doesn't, will they let us swap seats on the plane?
6. For return, it will be approximately Australia Day (2017-Jan-26), and near the end of school vacation in most Australian states. Would I be better off booking before, on, or after Australia Day, to maximize SWU chances?
7. If I end up with leftover SWUs, can child (not infant, but 2-11 in seat) fares be upgraded with them?
8. Will I likely have to wait until the last few days before the SWUs will clear, or may it happen sooner?
(9. I'm also considering the new AKL-LAX flights on AA as an option for the long haul, but I'm concerned that the 787 they're using will be the first to go to Y+, and until AA rules it out I'd be worried my SWUs would end up wasted on Y+ rather than J. So if anyone has insight on that, please advise.)
 
Sorry, I just realised there's an AA subforum where this probably belongs. Would a moderator care to move it for me, please?
 
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