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Don't always assume that the best value way to sit up the front is by UPG.
Take this example of a PER-SYD I just booked:
Travelling just before Xmas and the only paid fares showing were full whY at $430 and full J at $1930.
BUT - a quick look at EF and I see 3 U class (ie. J awards - doubling as UPG) seats available on my preferred flight but also plenty of U inventory on earlier flights (incidentally, no X class Economy awards were showing, but that was no surprise at that time of the year).
Jump back over to QF, click 'Show award flights' and there are the J awards - for 36,000 points plus about $30 taxes. Effective all-up cost c. $400, valuing a FF point at 1 cent.
Why would I pay $430 to buy whY, then outlay around, I think, 16-20,000 points to UPG when I can get a J redemption straight up for less than the whY cost?
Your arithmetic is sound but it does depend on
a) having enough points to burn and
b) not needing the SCs to tip you over to SG, WP or whatever.
If both of these conditions are met then yes, J awards can often be better value.